A system without danger: how Russia, the United States and Ukraine approached new negotiations

A new round of trilateral negotiations on Ukraine will start in Abu Dhabi on November 10. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the first item on the agenda of the meeting will be security issues of Russia, Ukraine and the entire region. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the parties can agree on at least a new humanitarian prisoner exchange, as well as, possibly, on the parameters of another local truce. At the same time, Russia's task is to combine two tracks: a dialogue on resolving the Ukrainian crisis and Russian-American consultations on a broader European security architecture. What Russia, Ukraine and the United States can agree on in Abu Dhabi is in the Izvestia article.

Continuation of negotiations on Ukraine

Russia, the United States and Ukraine will resume negotiations to resolve the crisis almost nine months after the previous round in Geneva. The reason for this pause was the conflict in the Middle East: American representatives — the special envoy of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff, and the son-in-law of the head of the White House, Jared Kushner — were busy resolving the crisis around Iran. However, Kiev was not ready for progress in the peace process either, which in the summer intensified attacks on fuel and energy facilities, transport and logistics infrastructure of the Russian Federation.

Photo: Global Look Press/Michal Fludra/ZUMAPRESS.com

Now that these strikes have not achieved their goal, and the country itself has become more acutely short of air defense systems and is unable to cope with the consequences of retaliatory Russian attacks, Ukraine is once again sitting down at the negotiating table. Her delegation, as last time, will be headed by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Rustem Umerov. Russia will be represented by Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky, two deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, Chief of the GRU General Staff Igor Kostyukov and Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff Yuri Zhigarlovsky.

According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the parties will negotiate principles that can be approved upon completion of consultations on a full-fledged settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. He noted that the central topic of the upcoming meetings will be security issues.

"The very agenda of the Abu Dhabi talks presupposes the first item on the security of Russia, Ukraine and, in general, security in this region," Lavrov said on November 9.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said that this aspect plays a key role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis. President Donald Trump also announced a large-scale agreement that could affect the whole of Europe, not just Ukraine.

Photo: REUTERS/Iryna Rybakova

A few days before the Abu Dhabi meeting, the White House administration held consultations in Brussels with NATO allies and Ukraine on the architecture of European security. Washington's position was represented by Jared Kushner, who called the talks "fruitful and meaningful." According to Politico, the United States proposed an agreement that would pursue five goals: ongoing security consultations, reliable channels of communication in case of crises, increased transparency of military activities, mutual measures to reduce the risk of escalation, and a long-term framework for ensuring security and stability in Europe.

That's how the meetings are: will the negotiations in the UAE bring the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine closer

There are important changes in the composition of the Russian delegation, and the results of the US elections may intensify Trump's actions.

However, in the Old World, the US initiatives were met with little enthusiasm. The head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, said that Brussels does not intend to consider a new security architecture, but plans to preserve the existing system, which is based on the EU and NATO. However, this approach is actually at the root of the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict.

Russia is trying to ensure that danger no longer emanates from the territory of Ukraine — this should become one of the elements of the new architecture of European security, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. European countries, on the contrary, are trying to keep Ukraine as a threat factor for Russia.

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer

"Europe is striving in every possible way to participate [in trilateral negotiations], but with one single goal: it does not want the negotiation process to take place under the auspices of the United States and the settlement to move somewhere," Miroshnik said. — Europe has not yet demonstrated any attempts at a peaceful settlement. Huge amounts of money are being allocated, arms production lines are being launched, and huge budgets aimed at the military-industrial complex are being built up.

By a strange memory: EU seeks to continue conflict in Ukraine

Brussels has no proposals for a settlement, but it wants to participate in the negotiations in order to control Kiev's position.

Europe is trying to get involved in the negotiations

However, the Trump administration's consultations with European allies continued on November 9th. On this day, a two-day meeting of the G7 foreign ministers opened in Paris, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived. These are his first talks with partners after the victory of the Democratic Party in the midterm congressional elections, and the Europeans are likely to try to increase pressure on Rubio to soften Washington's position on Ukraine.

In parallel, the maneuvers of the "coalition of the willing" started in Poland right before the start of the negotiations. They will be held under the joint leadership of Great Britain and France and will be the first large-scale exercises of the Multinational Force for Ukraine (MNF—U), the military component of this association. The participants will work out the transfer of personnel, equipment and supplies, as well as the protection and support of the contingent.

Photo: Global Look Press/Philipp Schulze/dpa

At the same time, according to the Financial Times, 10 Nordic countries, led by London, agreed to strengthen naval cooperation, including measures to deter Russian submarines in the North Atlantic, Arctic and Baltic Seas. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to Romania and Bulgaria to discuss safety and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea in support of Kiev.

Europe is also trying to get involved in the Abu Dhabi negotiation process. According to the Financial Times, the national security advisers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as the heads of the offices of the President of the European Commission and the Secretary General of NATO, will arrive in the UAE. Their goal is to "thwart Russia's attempts to use the US—led negotiations to review Europe's security architecture."

Before departure, Rustem Umerov said that the Ukrainian delegation would hold "separate coordination meetings" with the Europeans, in which, in addition to the listed parties, a representative of Italy would also take part. Against this background, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gare Stere said that after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, a dialogue between Europe and Russia would be necessary, noting that "the only voice that Moscow hears now comes from Washington."

Participants of the trilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Geneva

Photo: RIA Novosti/Ekaterina Chesnokova

Previous negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement did not bring tangible results, as Brussels and Washington adhered to fundamentally different approaches, MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia. According to him, the United States has periodically demonstrated its readiness for direct diplomacy and pragmatic de-escalation. The European Union, on the other hand, for the most part refused meaningful political contacts with Russia, continued its policy of isolation and sanctions, and considered the conflict itself primarily as a tool for further centralization of power in European structures.

A game worth meeting: What to expect from the new trilateral talks on Ukraine

The Russian delegation will again be led by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

What can be agreed upon in the negotiations

Negotiations in Abu Dhabi will start following the successful completion of the humanitarian operation in the city of Alyoshki, Kherson region, where a regime of silence operated from October 27 to November 1, which allowed hundreds of people to evacuate to Russia and Ukraine. The ceasefire regime for this mission has been fully respected, everything went without incident, Russian Ombudsman Yana Lantratova said. She also thanked US First Lady Melania Trump for facilitating and coordinating the humanitarian mission and asked her to make such missions regular.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia do not rule out that the parties may agree either on new exchanges of prisoners and bodies of the dead, or on new humanitarian truces. The work line of the Ombudsmen will be continued during the trilateral meeting. There are many issues in this area that require prompt solutions, said Oleg Karpovich, Head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy. The countries can agree on tactical issues — for example, Ukraine will stop hitting Russian refineries, which Donald Trump has long insisted on, political analyst Mikhail Kucherov believes. However, for this, Washington will have to offer Kiev something in return, for example, Patriot interceptor missiles.

Photo: RIA Novosti/RT/Ruptly

However, the main intrigue of the meeting in Abu Dhabi is whether the parties will be able to move from discussing the fundamental conditions of peace to specific agreements that can be implemented now, analysts say. And here, the expansion of the Russian delegation, which, in particular, includes Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, draws attention to itself. The Ukrainian issue is being integrated into a broader Russian-American conversation about strategic stability and global security, said Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

Moscow is preparing for negotiations that go far beyond the technical agreements on a cease-fire. Russia's goal is to link two tracks: negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and US-Russian negotiations on a broader security architecture in Europe, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.

The further course of the negotiations depends on whether Ukraine shows flexibility on issues of principle for Moscow, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club. These include neutral status, refusal to join NATO, restrictions on the structure of the armed forces and the deployment of foreign troops. If Kiev continues to consider these topics non-negotiable, negotiations will reach an impasse again.