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- That's how the meetings are: will the negotiations in the UAE bring the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine closer
That's how the meetings are: will the negotiations in the UAE bring the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine closer
Donald Trump may use the time before the congress is updated to reach specific agreements on the Ukrainian conflict, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. At the same time, the Americans' position was hardly influenced by recent consultations in Brussels ahead of the Abu Dhabi meetings, the senator believes. The Europeans claim that they will be present at the talks in the UAE. But Washington does not intend to involve them in a dialogue, and the EU's positions are unconstructive and aimed only at prolonging the war, the European Parliament told Izvestia. For example, the first exercises of the multinational forces for Ukraine, the military component of the coalition of the willing, will start in Poland on November 9.
What to expect from the United States at the Abu Dhabi talks
After almost nine months, the main parties to the Ukrainian conflict are returning to the settlement process. After the Geneva meetings on February 18-19, 2026, representatives of Russia, the United States and Ukraine will now try to move forward in resolving the crisis on November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi.
Participants of the trilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Geneva
One of the main intrigues is how the position of the American side will change after the crushing defeat of the Republicans in the midterm elections. The US president now has two options: to try to squeeze out the maximum before the official update of the congress, or, in the status of a "lame duck," gradually compromise with the Democrats, who do not intend to seek common ground with Moscow. The Federation Council believes that the American administration will take advantage of this window of opportunity.
— The time remaining until January 3 will be actively used by Trump to reach some specific agreements in the development of his previous initiatives. It could be a Ukrainian plot, Iran, or the Middle East," Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
Moreover, Washington's activity on the eve of the meeting in the UAE is already very noticeable. On October 21, after talks with Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in St. Petersburg from Oslo to meet with Vladimir Putin. Then Kirill Dmitriev, the special envoy of the Russian President, accompanied by Yana Lantratova, the Commissioner for Human Rights, went to the White House to attend an event with Melania Trump, the First Lady of the United States, following the humanitarian mission in Alyoshki. The Ukrainian side was also present there.
Then, according to him, Trump personally spoke with Dmitriev, informing him about a major settlement agreement that was being prepared, which could affect not only Ukraine, but also the whole of Europe. Interestingly, another staff negotiator from the White House, Jared Kushner, reported on Trump's talks "with a number of European leaders regarding the need for a broader security architecture." Witkoff and Kushner will also represent the Americans in Abu Dhabi.
According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, "there are no details about a possible agreement," however, at the end of October, he noted that the trilateral talks would be devoted to discussing security issues.
In this regard, changes in the composition of the Russian delegation attract special attention. In Geneva, the negotiations ended without any final documents, agreements or breakthroughs. Vladimir Medinsky, who represented the Russian side, then eloquently described them as "difficult, but businesslike." He's also going to Abu Dhabi. Only now, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin will be joined by another deputy head of the department, Sergei Ryabkov, and the head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Igor Kostyukov, will be joined by a representative of another department, Yuri Zhigarlovsky. All of them took part in a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and permanent members of the Russian Security Council on the eve of the meetings in the UAE.
Bringing the agenda of the negotiations to the Security Council level already demonstrates that Moscow is shifting the negotiations to the plane of the highest national interests, said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies. And the presence of Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees relations with the United States, arms control and nuclear nonproliferation, takes the agenda beyond a local conflict. This is also a signal to Washington of its readiness to discuss the parameters of the future security architecture in Europe and the resumption of dialogue on strategic stability, the expert emphasizes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds an operational meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council
By the way, it was Ryabkov who, in December 2021, presented draft agreements on security guarantees with the United States and NATO on behalf of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
The inclusion of representatives of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and military intelligence in the delegation shows that Moscow intends to conduct a substantive dialogue on a range of security issues, shifting the focus from purely political aspects. Consultations were held in Abu Dhabi last February in approximately the same practical way. According to a number of sources, the creation of buffer zones and monitoring of the ceasefire regime were discussed. And it was then that the first decision on the prisoner exchange was made in five months. It is worth noting the role of the Emirates in the negotiation process. Vladimir Putin emphasized that the UAE leadership consistently helps Russia in finding solutions to resolve the Ukrainian crisis and in resolving humanitarian issues related to exchanges.
The position of Ukraine and Europe
The position of the Ukrainian side remains a brake on the settlement. The president's office announced another targeted proposal to end active hostilities by stopping fire along the current line of contact — without legal concessions to the Ukrainian territories. Ukraine is still counting on short-term agreements, including a truce in the energy sector, while Moscow insists on discussing the entire range of settlement issues, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the MGIMO Department of Political Theory, draws attention.
Kiev may also try to return to the grain deal, given Turkey's interest, the expert admits. On November 7, Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Recep Tayyip Erdogan — the Turkish leader and Trump expressed hope for progress in the Ukrainian settlement.
If the Ukrainian side makes concessions, they may limit themselves to local agreements, similar to the truce in Alyoshki, Loshkarev admits.
"We are ready for agreements, but on our terms, or in the absence of such agreements, we are ready to continue a special military operation,— Konstantin Kosachev stressed to Izvestia.
The conditions of the Russian side do not allow Kiev to accept the Europeans, who have now assumed the role of its main ally and sponsor. They were not invited to Abu Dhabi, but at the same time, Brussels is trying in every possible way to get there. According to media reports, the European Commission and the European Council are preparing a joint group of high—ranking officials led by Bjorn Seibert, a representative of the office of EC President Ursula von der Leyen. On November 8, the French Foreign Ministry confirmed its participation. However, it is not known in what form it will be — in Geneva, European leaders during the talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine, according to Sergey Lavrov, "sat in the dressing room" and "drank coffee."
The American negotiating group is not interested in allowing the Europeans to participate in the negotiations, as, in its opinion, they will only complicate the situation. Their presence at the venue of the talks will only emphasize the insignificance of the EU, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia.
— They come to support Mr. Zelensky and his most extreme positions. Russia is not interested in the EU's admission to any negotiations, as the EU's positions are unconstructive and aimed only at prolonging the war," he said.
Meanwhile, the first exercises of the Multinational forces for Ukraine, the military component of the so—called European initiative of the coalition of the willing, begin in Poland on November 9. This confirms that European countries do not need to be at the negotiating table, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. In addition, according to the Financial Times, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries will create a naval alliance to deter Russian submarines in the North Atlantic, the Arctic and the Baltic Sea.
— In my opinion, in the perception of this conflict by Ukraine and Ukraine's European allies, there has only been a further radicalization of approaches. There is euphoria over the results of the American elections right now. They believe that a democratic congress will make it easier for them to deal with a Republican president," Kosachev said.
Representatives of Europe, represented by Germany, France and the United Kingdom, probably tried to realize all the advantages of the Republican fiasco at recent consultations with their American colleagues in Brussels. However, it is worth noting that Americans participated online. This significantly limits the effectiveness of negotiations, and therefore there is unlikely to be any drastic progress in the US position, Kosachev believes.
Thus, the attempt to win the States over through increasing pressure from the Democrats failed. According to American scientist and HSE analyst Egor Toropov, the impact of the Democratic Party's victory in both houses of Congress on American foreign policy will still be more limited than on domestic policy. Trump will be able to circumvent the current mechanisms of the Senate's control over foreign policy, which, in the system of checks and balances of the American system, remains the prerogative of the executive branch of government headed by the president.
In general, the positions of the parties have not changed dramatically since the Geneva meetings, and experts do not expect breakthrough agreements, but some aspects suggest that this is possible — for example, the Trump administration's last chance to achieve a political victory and the emergence of new participants in the Russian delegation. But there are no signs yet that Kiev is ready to take a step forward.
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