A game worth meeting: What to expect from the new trilateral talks on Ukraine
The trilateral talks on Ukraine scheduled for November 10-11 in the UAE will not be able to put an end to the crisis, but the fact of their holding is assessed positively. The Russian delegation at this meeting will be led by Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky. A good background has formed for the resumption of contacts: the humanitarian mission in Alyoshki has been successfully completed, and the number of strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has decreased. On the other hand, European officials who are going to come to Abu Dhabi can undermine the atmosphere, although they will not take a direct part in the negotiations themselves.
Resumption of trilateral negotiations
The Abu Dhabi talks will be the first face-to–face contact in the Russia–USA-Ukraine format since February 2026, when similar consultations took place in Switzerland. The Russian delegation will be headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin and Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky during a trilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, the United States and Ukraine
The American side is expected to be led by the president's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the leader's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. It was Witkoff who visited Oslo at the end of October, where he held talks with Vladimir Zelensky, and then headed to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. As a result of these diplomatic contacts, the parties came to an agreement on the resumption of the negotiation process. The Ukrainian delegation to the Geneva talks was headed by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Rustem Umerov, and he is expected to represent Kiev now.
Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted that it was unlikely that many issues would be resolved during the first meeting, as it was likely to be targeted. Dmitry Novikov, Associate Professor at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, believes that it is not worth expecting socially significant progress from the upcoming negotiations: the parties first need to summarize the events of the last six months, so the upcoming consultations will be mainly technical in nature.
Russia's principled approaches have remained unchanged since June 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. Then Vladimir Putin announced the conditions for a cease-fire and the start of negotiations on Ukraine. He stated that Ukraine should completely withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine beyond the administrative borders of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. And as soon as Kiev declares that it is ready for such a decision, begins a real withdrawal of troops, and officially notifies of the abandonment of plans to join NATO, Moscow will give an immediate cease-fire order.
At the same time, the very fact that the parties will sit down at the negotiating table can already be considered a positive signal. Previous face-to-face meetings between the parties often ended with the resolution of issues such as the exchange of prisoners or the bodies of the dead. Miroshnik admitted that at the talks in the UAE, the parties may again raise these topics.
— Our main advances are on the humanitarian track — the exchange of prisoners, bodies, and the sick. This political track is not moving anywhere," he said.
A positive background for the resumption of negotiations is the humanitarian mission in the city of Alyoshki, which ended on November 1. The agreement on the silence regime was observed for several days. It was achieved through the mediation of the American side, in particular, the First Lady of the United States Melania Trump.
It is also noteworthy that the number of injured civilians due to the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the past week has generally decreased.
— The number of victims has decreased this week. Conditionally, if there were more than 300 last week, now it's somewhere around 230," said Rodion Miroshnik.
According to Dmitry Novikov, even after the November 3 congressional elections, the United States will continue to look for ways to resolve the conflict, as this was one of Donald Trump's key election promises. In addition, resolving the crisis may open up opportunities for Washington and Moscow to actively cooperate economically, as exemplified in the past by the diesel deal.
On the other hand, Trump does not have the opportunity to fully dictate his terms to Vladimir Zelensky. Ukraine continues to rely on the support of European countries, which, despite their own financial problems, have not yet demonstrated their willingness to stop supplying weapons and providing financial assistance to Kiev.
Europe's participation in the negotiations
The European Union is preparing a joint group of high-ranking officials to travel to Abu Dhabi. According to Euronews, the European delegation may be headed by Bjorn Seibert, Chief of Staff of EC President Ursula von der Leyen. Although EU representatives will not be present at the trilateral meeting itself. According to Yuri Ushakov, the first rounds of negotiations should be held strictly in a trilateral format, since Moscow has established working contacts with Washington.
This practice of behind-the-scenes support has already been used before: European diplomats attended previous meetings in Geneva, but did not actively participate in the main negotiations, limiting themselves to holding separate consultations and coordinating positions with representatives of Ukraine and the United States.
The presence of European representatives in Abu Dhabi, even without their direct participation in the trilateral meeting, can complicate negotiations. Yuri Ushakov explained that if European diplomats arrive in the UAE, the American and Ukrainian delegations can periodically consult with them and report to them on the situation. As a result, the need to take into account the EU's position can delay and confuse the entire negotiation process.
At the same time, the Russian side does not abandon contacts with Europe. Earlier, Ushakov noted that it is necessary to talk with Europe, since it fully supports Kiev, and in the context of the Ukrainian settlement, its position may be of key importance.
According to the Financial Times newspaper, citing sources, Washington is of the opinion that France, Germany and the United Kingdom (the so-called E3 format) may become the most likely participants in negotiations from Europe. It was in Berlin that Vladimir Zelensky arrived on an unannounced visit on November 3. Obviously, this is due to Kiev's desire to coordinate further behavior in the negotiations.
It was also mentioned in the media that a specific negotiator or a group of representatives could be identified from European states. Among the possible candidates were Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stere, and Czech President Petr Pavel. It was Stubb and Stere who called Vladimir Putin in October, however, as explained in Helsinki and Oslo, these were conversations on behalf of their own states, and not on behalf of the entire European Union.
Is it worth involving Europe in negotiations in the future
Europe's participation is seen as problematic for several reasons at once. Firstly, because of the UK's position, the negotiation process broke down in the spring of 2022. Secondly, the largest European states are still betting on the continuation of the conflict, and unfriendly statements are constantly being made from there. The expansion of the negotiation format does not guarantee progress in itself: if the participation of European representatives is reduced to making additional demands without a willingness to discuss compromises, it may become even more difficult to coordinate positions.
With rare exceptions, Europe is not ready to hear Russia's position. The only pragmatic approach stands out is the position of Slovakia and its Prime Minister Robert Fico. In addition, calls for a peaceful settlement have recently begun to sound from Bulgaria after Rumen Radev came to power.
In most other European countries, an exceptionally belligerent attitude dominates, which manifests itself even in areas far from politics. A striking example was the reaction to the recent decision of the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in favor of Russian hockey players, which was immediately followed by statements from European capitals about the inadmissibility of the return of Russian sports to the international arena.
At the same time, the European Parliament is calling for the launch of a new military mission in the Black Sea, and only a few are paying attention to the serious risks of further escalation.
"Unfortunately, the European Parliament has become the main generator of the anti—Russian Russophobic line carried out by the European Union against our country," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.
However, the growing discontent with this position continues. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is strengthening its position, demanding the resumption of a normal dialogue with the Russian Federation. In France, where presidential elections will be held next year, Marine Le Pen may come to power, which also has a more pragmatic approach. At the same time, there is an increase in protest sentiments across Europe: young people are taking to the streets, some of them demanding an end to militarization and an end to cuts in social spending.
However, the difficulties of involving Europe in the upcoming consultations do not mean that it should be excluded from further discussion. It will be more difficult to reach sustainable agreements without dialogue with European countries. But Europe's possible involvement requires clarity.: who will represent her position, what powers she will have and what obligations she will be able to assume. Without answers to these questions, the appearance of another delegation at the negotiating table will not necessarily bring a settlement closer.
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