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- A conversation without equals: Ukraine is trying to return to dialogue with the United States
A conversation without equals: Ukraine is trying to return to dialogue with the United States
The people of Ukraine are unlikely to tolerate further military operations, and Zelensky needs to make a deal, Donald Trump said on the evening of October 20. He noted that Russia is systematically "moving forward" on the front line. Washington is seeking concessions from Kiev in order to return to trilateral negotiations with Russia, experts say. Trump's harsh rhetoric, the threat of shutting down Starlink, and the depletion of Patriot missile stocks have already forced Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table with the United States in Oslo. A landing party of European diplomats arrived there to support Ukraine, but they are not ready for compromises, the European Parliament noted. Europe is seeking to draw Kiev into its sphere of influence on a long-term basis, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected in Moscow on October 21. What offers they can come with can be found in the Izvestia article.
The Oslo talks
The Ukrainian leadership is trying to regain the support of the United States after a sharp deterioration in relations. On October 20, Vladimir Zelensky held a meeting with American negotiators in the Norwegian capital of Oslo. According to the Prime Minister of the Kingdom, Jonas Gahr Stere, it was the Ukrainian side that requested the negotiations. Zelensky also managed to have a 45-minute telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in the Norwegian capital from the United States, and his colleague Jared Kushner joined via video link. Besides them, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and a whole landing party of EU and NATO representatives, as well as diplomats from Great Britain, Germany, Poland and France arrived in Oslo. It is noteworthy that the Norwegian leadership did not meet Vladimir Zelensky at the airport.
The previous meeting of the US and Ukrainian delegations was held in Miami on October 9 and ended ahead of schedule: the Kiev negotiators left the United States when it became known about the agreements between Moscow and Washington on the purchase of Russian diesel. After that, Kiev announced problems with the Starlink satellite connection and accused the United States of stopping the transfer of intelligence. An attempt by European allies to replace American aid failed: at the EU summit on October 15-16, new support packages were not approved due to the position of Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump sharply intensified criticism of Vladimir Zelensky for his unwillingness to negotiate a peaceful settlement. Answering questions from the press on October 19, the American leader said that Ukraine should negotiate without Zelensky. According to him, Russia is "behaving normally" towards Ukraine. Trump denied Zelensky's complaints about the termination of data transmission and the shutdown of satellite communications in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The people of Ukraine are unlikely to tolerate further military operations, Zelensky needs to make a deal, the Republican believes. Moreover, Russia is steadily expanding its controlled territory and "moving forward." Trump stated bluntly: the United States shared a lot with Ukraine, but it only brought "grief, death and incredible financial losses."
The host of the White House also postponed the introduction of "hellish sanctions" against the Russian Federation in accordance with a law passed by Congress in September. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the US decision demonstrates a serious approach to creating conditions for progress and normalization of relations with Russia.
At the same time, the United States used other levers of pressure on Kiev. According to CNN, in mid-October, Ukraine completely ran out of missiles for the Patriot air defense system. Washington delayed the delivery of new interceptors, but explained this by its own needs. In addition, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service said that Washington is investigating Ukraine's ties with Mexican drug cartels.
All these measures are related to the White House's plans to impose a deal on Kiev, The New York Times writes. The United States wants to explain to the Ukrainian leader that he should agree to territorial concessions. Kiev's rejection of its previous position may pave the way for the resumption of trilateral negotiations, which were interrupted in February, political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia.
According to Axios, after meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in Oslo, Witkoff expects to present the ideas developed there to Vladimir Putin. Witkoff and Kushner are expected to meet with Putin on October 21 in St. Petersburg, where they will discuss not only the results of the Oslo meeting, but also the possible release of American Stephen Hubbard (in 2024, he was sentenced to six years and ten months for participating in combat operations in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a mercenary). Donald Trump said that he had asked Vladimir Putin about this. Politico suggested that one of the topics of the talks could be a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelensky. The US president believes that a personal meeting is not necessary to resolve the conflict.
The Kremlin earlier expressed the hope that in the near future, American negotiators will be able to inform Russian President Vladimir Putin about their contacts with Ukrainians and Europeans in Norway. Russia will see what Witkoff and Kushner offer, but there will be no political concessions from the Russian side, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the evening of October 20.
Will Europe join the negotiations
At the same time, European countries, unlike the US administration, do not show their readiness for the peace process. At the end of September, the European Union extended the mandate of the EUMAM Ukraine military training mission for Ukraine until November 2028. Brussels is also negotiating to provide Ukraine with access to data from a future constellation of IRIS2 communications security satellites. In other words, Brussels intends to completely replace American support for Kiev.
Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia that at the current stage it is Europe that leads the Western "war party" — providing the "lion's share" of financial and military support to Kiev. She is doing her best to prevent the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and thereby keep Zelensky's puppet regime afloat, hypocritically advocating for an early settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and sabotaging any potential peace agreements.
— The extension of the mandate of the EU mission to provide military assistance to Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) — which, by the way, has already trained more than 90,000 Ukrainian troops — for such a long time once again confirms the long-term nature of the EU strategy to draw Ukraine into the sphere of its military and political influence, that is, beyond the horizon of conflict resolution in this country," Maslennikov said.
The participation of European representatives in the negotiation process with the United States plays into Kiev's hands, as they are unlikely to support Washington's initiatives, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia.
— The recent meeting of the European Council did not show any signs of flexibility, the EU simply repeated its well—known positions, - said the MEP.
At the same time, European countries do not want to be completely excluded from the negotiation process, because in this case they risk losing the opportunity to influence the situation. According to the Financial Times, EU leaders are preparing for a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, there is no information about the exact format in which such a conversation could hypothetically take place. At the beginning of the year, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed appointing a special envoy for this purpose. The European Union, however, has not decided on his candidacy, a European source told Izvestia.
"No decision has been made on the candidacy of [the EU special representative] at the moment," the source said.
In June, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, said that he had tried to establish diplomatic contacts with Russia, but these were technical negotiations, and not all EU countries supported this format. At the same time, there was an attempt to launch another communication channel: in June, the ambassadors of Great Britain, Germany and France met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin in Moscow. Russian officials have repeatedly stressed that they do not give up contacts.
Ukraine and Europe do not have proper contractual capacity, Oleg Karpovich, Head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, believes. The United States is trying to influence the Kiev regime and its European allies in various forms, while at the same time expanding the range of trade and economic cooperation with Moscow. Therefore, the main burden of the settlement falls on the shoulders of Russia and the United States.
The unprecedented US pressure on Ukraine does not mean that Washington will eventually be able to force Kiev to an agreement. He has the necessary levers, but the example of last year showed that European support allowed the Ukrainian leadership to prolong the conflict. The White House's willingness to move from rhetorical attacks against Zelensky to concrete measures is crucial. In any case, Russia is determined to achieve its goals.
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