Leave in Brazil: Bolsonaro's flight has not removed the threat of protests by his supporters

The victory of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the presidential election does not guarantee Brazil's political stability. His rival Flavio Bolsonaro left the country and went to the United States, despite the ban of the Supreme Court. From there, the politician may try to mobilize his supporters, but mass protests should not be expected, experts believe. At the same time, the right has strengthened its position in Congress and can restrain Lula's initiatives, including the development of relations with Russia. Brazil expects to deepen cooperation with Russia during Lula's fourth term, including in energy and trade, the country's ambassador Sergio Rodriguez dos Santos told Izvestia. The parties are currently discussing the simplification of mutual payments and the expansion of trade in agricultural products, the Brazilian government said.

What threatens Brazil with Bolsonaro's departure

Despite the completion of the presidential elections, the passions in Brazilian politics have not subsided. Flavio Bolsonaro, who beat incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first round and lost in the second, did not recognize the election results. Two days after the defeat, he left the country, despite the ban of the Supreme Court.

In Brazil, Bolsonaro is under criminal investigation on suspicion of money laundering. In addition, law enforcement agencies are investigating possible violations in the financing of the film Dark Horse, dedicated to Jair Bolsonar, Flavio's father, who is serving a 27—year sentence in the case of the attempted coup. At the same time, on October 26, the politician denied plans to leave the country. Although the US State Department confirmed Washington's readiness to provide visas to the entire family of the politician.

Despite his flight, Flavio can continue his political struggle from abroad. A similar situation has already developed after the presidential elections in 2022. At that time, Jair Bolsonaro also refused to admit defeat and left for the United States two days before Lula's inauguration. His supporters continued their protests and on January 8, 2023, broke into the buildings of the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace in Brasilia. The ex-president himself returned to his homeland only three months later, at the end of March 2023.

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Back then, the protests took place during the transfer of power from Jair Bolsonaro to Lula, but now there will be no change of president. Nevertheless, supporters of the losing candidate may take to the streets, as Brazilian society remains deeply divided, Alexandra Terzi, program coordinator of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia.

Despite the continued influence of the Bolsonaro family, Flavio's departure significantly limits his ability to organize mass demonstrations, said Zbigniew Ivanovsky, chief researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to him, individual protest actions are possible, but the absence of Bolsonaro himself reduces the likelihood of mass mobilization of his supporters.

Moreover, the departure of the politician caused a mixed reaction among his colleagues. The Liberal Party, unlike its leader, recognized Lula's victory in the elections, and the re-elected governor of Sao Paulo Tarcisio de Freitas (he is considered as the new leader of the opposition in Brazil) called on the right to focus on the struggle in parliament.

How the elections will affect Brazil's relations with Russia

The strengthening of the opposition may hinder the further expansion of cooperation between Moscow and Brasilia. The Liberal Party won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the October 4 elections, and from 2027 it will have 28 of the 81 seats in the Senate. Thus, Bolsonaro's party will become the largest political force in both houses of parliament. This will give her the opportunity to restrain certain initiatives of Lula, including those aimed at strengthening ties with Russia, Zbigniew Ivanovsky believes.

At the same time, the current authorities expect to further strengthen relations with Russia during Lula's fourth presidential term, the country's ambassador to the Russian Federation, Sergio Rodriguez dos Santos, told Izvestia. Cooperation will develop both at the bilateral level and within the framework of BRICS, the United Nations and the G20. Expansion of economic cooperation will remain one of the priorities. The Brazilian side expects to increase trade volumes and reduce its imbalance. In January – September 2026, the trade turnover between the two countries reached almost $9 billion. However, Brazil purchased $7.65 billion worth of Russian goods, while its exports to Russia amounted to only $1.31 billion.

"We will continue our efforts to diversify trade relations, increase the volume and value of trade, paying special attention to reducing our trade deficit with Russia," the ambassador stressed.

In particular, technical negotiations on sanitary and phytosanitary requirements are continuing, which may open the Russian market to new categories of Brazilian products.

—The Brazilian side is interested in further strengthening this cooperation and jointly searching for new trade opportunities," the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia.

Fertilizers play a special role in trade. According to Comex Stat, in the first nine months of 2026, Russia supplied 6.22 million tons of these products to the country, providing 21.9% of its imports. Although the volume of purchases decreased by 29.5% year-on-year, the Russian Federation retained its first place among foreign suppliers.

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The Brazilian authorities expect to gradually reduce dependence on imported fertilizers. Since September, the Profert program has been launched in the country, providing support for its own production. Starting from July 2027, the minimum share of Brazilian fertilizers in mixtures sold on the domestic market should be 2%, and by 2037 it should reach 10%.

However, the National Association of Fertilizer Producers of Brazil told Izvestia that they do not predict a significant reduction in import dependence as early as 2027. They also confirmed that Russia will remain one of the main suppliers of these products to the Brazilian market.

Energy may become another area of cooperation. In May, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Maxim Reshetnikov, announced Brazil's interest in long-term purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas, including for the production of fertilizers. According to him, the companies of the two countries had already conducted relevant negotiations, but further work was required to conclude contracts. To this end, Moscow and Brasilia are discussing the development of mutual settlement mechanisms. At a meeting of the Russian-Brazilian intergovernmental commission on May 25, the parties raised the issue of possible simplification of payments, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.

"Representatives of the authorities and technical departments of both countries had the opportunity to exchange information on the potential simplification of payment flows," the ministry said.

As a result, Lula's electoral success creates the conditions for maintaining the current course in relations with Moscow, although it will not be easy to implement all the president's initiatives. His former rival Flavio Bolsonaro advocated rapprochement with the United States and even allowed Brazil to withdraw from the BRICS. Now, his colleagues in parliament may create the main obstacles to the development of trade relations between the countries.