From a similar protest: Lula's re-election threatens Brazil with new rallies
Lula da Silva's victory in the presidential election could lead to a new wave of protests in Brazil. The current president received 51.79% of the vote against 48.21% for Flavio Bolsonaro and became the country's leader for the fourth time. However, his opponent refused to recognize the results and intends to challenge them in court. According to experts, the country risks facing a repeat of the events of 2022-2023, when supporters of Jair Bolsonaro (Flavio's father) stormed government buildings. The situation is complicated by the fact that Bolsonaro's party has sufficient influence in parliament to block the president's initiatives. However, Brazil's foreign policy course, including partnership with Russia and participation in the BRICS, is likely to remain unchanged.
Results of the presidential election in Brazil
The second round of the presidential election has ended in Brazil. The winner was the current head of state, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, representing the Workers' Party. His key rival was Senator Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, the son of former leader Jair Bolsonaro. Lula won 51.79% of the vote, while Flaviu received 48.21%. The gap between the candidates was about 4.4 million votes.
For most observers, Lula's victory was unexpected, because in the first round, held on October 4, Flaviu was in the lead with 47.03% of the vote against his opponent's 45.15%. This is the first time in Brazil's modern history that a candidate who won at the start of an election race eventually lost in the final round.
Bolsonaro refused to recognize the results on election day and promised to annul the results. He explained his position by the decision of the judge of the Supreme Federal Court, Christian Zanin, to extend the work of the sites for two hours due to heavy rains and transport problems. According to the politician, this was a gross change in the rules right during the voting. At the same time, as it turned out later, Flaviu's headquarters also asked for an extension of the voting time, but only in selected cities. As a result, those sites that were still working received an additional two hours. As stated in the Supreme Electoral Court, this did not affect the final results of the count in any way.
This situation already creates a real threat of a political crisis, in which Flaviu risks repeating the fate of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. After the 2022 elections, supporters of the ex-president also refused to recognize their results, and in January 2023 they stormed the parliament buildings, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. Those riots formed the basis of a criminal case against Bolsonaro Sr., who in September 2025 was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attempted coup.
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro
New protests are quite possible, says Egor Lidovskaya, Director General of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center. According to him, the situation largely depends on Washington: the administration of Donald Trump can both increase pressure on Brazil and return to negotiations with Lula. Political commentator Igor Pshenichnikov also admits street actions, but he doubts that the opposition will be able to achieve a review of the results.
The reasons for Lula da Silva's victory
The victory of the current leader in the second round was ensured precisely by the mobilization of supporters who missed the vote at the start, Lidovskaya believes. Some of them were confident that the president would easily win without them, while others were hampered by transport problems in remote areas. To remedy the situation, Lula actively traveled around the country between tours and personally urged voters to come to the polling stations. After the first round, Lula began actively meeting with voters and encouraging them to vote. As a result, he managed to attract additional votes and turn the tide of the election.
Social media played an important role, Pshenichnikov believes. In his opinion, Lula's SMM team completely outplayed their opponents, and the president himself was greatly helped by his reputation as a defender of social programs. Before the decisive round, his headquarters noticeably intensified Internet campaigning.
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva participate in a televised debate before the second round of the presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Nevertheless, the fight was also on television, where the opponents met twice in debates. So, on October 18, Flaviu asked Lulu why 73% of the prisoners voted for him. The President calmly replied that he wanted 100% of those serving their sentences to vote, including Father Flaviu. During the second televised debate, on October 23, after a short substantive discussion, the candidates again switched to mutual attacks. Bolsonaro called Lulu a "nine-fingered" man, ridiculing the president's loss of a finger due to an industrial injury, but after outraging his rival, the senator apologized. In response, Lula accused Bolsonaro of having links to organized crime.
Lula also used a strong trump card: he raised the issue of the murder of five-year-old Ana Clara, who died from a gunshot during a police operation in Rio de Janeiro in 2021, and invited the girl's mother to the debate. Bolsonaro once defended the accused policeman. On social media, it was this episode that caused the most violent reaction.
What will change for Brazil
However, in addition to mutual accusations, the candidates still discussed the future of Brazil. The main driving force of the election campaign was internal problems — the rising cost of living, crime and the general state of the economy. Lula, as a representative of the left, emphasized social programs, raising the minimum wage and fighting poverty. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, criticized inflated government spending and promised to reduce the bureaucratic apparatus.
We should not expect a sharp turnaround in foreign policy after the elections. Lula advocates an independent course, maintaining relations with the United States, China and the countries of the Global South. However, disagreements remain with Washington over tariffs on Brazilian goods. And if Bolsonaro promised unconditional rapprochement with Trump, then Lula intends to seek a compromise, fiercely defending national interests.
For Russia, the victory of the current leader means maintaining the usual partnership. On October 26, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow welcomes the success of Lula da Silva. Economic ties between the two countries remain strong: in 2025, the bilateral trade turnover reached $10.9 billion. At the same time, Russia accounted for 26% of Brazilian fertilizer imports and 45% of diesel fuel purchases. Brazil, for its part, supplies meat, coffee and other agricultural products to the Russian market. The prospects for the development of relations between the parties were discussed in detail in May at a meeting of the intergovernmental commission.
Even Bolsonaro's victory would hardly have led to the severance of economic ties with Moscow, Pshenichnikov believes. Brazilian farmers are heavily dependent on Russian fertilizers, and it is extremely difficult to quickly find an alternative to them. Now, after Lula's victory, there is practically no reason to change course towards Russia, the expert believes.
At the same time, if Washington does escalate bilateral relations, it will only encourage Brasilia to work more closely with Moscow and Beijing. However, the main difficulties await Lulu not in North America, but at home. According to the results of the October 4 vote, the Liberal Party won 121 out of 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while Lula's Workers' Party won only 70. In the Senate, Bolsonaro's supporters will have 28 mandates out of 81, while the president's party will have only nine. So both houses of parliament can block the current leader's internal reforms.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
