Right or left: Brazil's elections could change the country's course towards BRICS
Brazil is approaching the October 4 elections amid a deeply divided society. Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro propose different economic and foreign policy models, and their struggle may move to the second round. The risk of new street protests remains high, experts say, although Flavio has already promised to recognize the results of the vote. Brasilia's course in relations with Washington and Moscow, as well as its further role in BRICS, will depend on their outcome. The economic aspect is also important for the Russian Federation: in 2025, the trade turnover reached $10.9 billion, while Brazil remains dependent on Russian fertilizers and diesel. In addition, the parties continue to discuss simplification of customs procedures, the Brazilian Federal Tax Service told Izvestia.
Lula and Bolsonaro: the struggle for votes
The first round of voting is taking place in Brazil on October 4. If none of the presidential candidates receives more than half of the valid votes, the second stage will be held on October 25. The main rivals were incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from the Workers' Party and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro from the Liberal Party. The latter represents the political camp of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a prison sentence after being convicted of trying to retain power after losing the 2022 elections.
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro takes a selfie with a supporter during an election rally the day before the general election
The participants of the race are on a par. According to a CNT/MDA poll published on October 3, 43.1% of respondents are ready to support Lula in the first round, while 38% are ready to support Flavio Bolsonaro. In a possible second round, the ratio is 47.3% versus 43.1%.
A small gap increases the risk of unrest after the elections, political analyst Igor Pshenichnikov believes. In his opinion, supporters of the Bolsonaro family have a particularly high protest potential. At the same time, Flavio will probably try not to follow his father's path and distance himself from possible unrest, so as not to give himself a reason to accuse himself of trying to disrupt the transfer of power. The candidate himself has already stated that he recognizes the results of the vote.
The mobilization of citizens is in full swing. On September 7, about 28,500 supporters of Flavio Bolsonaro gathered on Paulista Avenue in Sao Paulo to protest against the government of Lula and Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who played a key role in the trial against Jair Bolsonaro in the coup attempt case.
Actions are also held in support of the current president. On October 3, Lula, along with Fernando Addad, the former finance minister and one of the key participants in his current campaign, held an election march in Sao Paulo. Addad resigned as finance minister in the spring of 2026 to focus on Lula's campaign.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
The political tension within the country is also explained by the fact that Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula offer different economic models. Bolsonaro's right-wing team advocates a tougher fiscal policy than Lula's government. Thus, it is proposed to introduce a new spending ceiling, reduce at least ten ministries, reduce the number of official positions and administrative costs, as well as carry out a new wave of privatization. In this way, Flavio wants to solve the problem of the growing debt burden: Brazil's gross national debt has approached 82.5% of GDP, the nominal deficit is 9.3%, and high interest rates are putting pressure on businesses and consumers.
Bolsonaro is clearly referring to the experience of neighboring Argentina. Under Alberto Fernandez, there were 18 ministries, strict currency restrictions were in effect, and the economy was under active state control. The current president Javier Miley, after coming to power, sharply reduced government spending and began deregulation. As a result, monthly inflation dropped from 25.5% at the end of 2023 to 1.7% in August 2026, and the budget began to run in surplus.
How the elections will affect relations with Russia
Do not forget that the candidates offer completely different courses for the country and in the foreign arena. Under leftist President Lula, Brazil actively cooperated with other countries within the framework of the BRICS: the country supported the expansion of the association, agreed upon at the Johannesburg summit in 2023, and in 2025 it itself chaired the BRICS.
With Flavio, everything can change. The published election program does not mention the association at all, but it says that Brazil urgently needs to accelerate the process of joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Formally, the OECD does not act as an alternative to the BRICS, but convergence with it means moving towards the standards of Western economies.
Moreover, Flavio said in June that, if elected, he would reconsider the expediency of Brazil's continued presence in the BRICS, and allowed the possibility of withdrawing from the association. However, the latter is unlikely in the event of his victory, Pshenichnikov believes. Most likely, the country will formally remain in the association, but will reduce its participation.
More importantly, Flavio is a clear favorite of Washington. American leader Donald Trump hosted him at the White House, and in the spring, the candidate met with Vice President Jay Dee Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He wants to return to close cooperation with the United States and places more emphasis on bilateral ties. On the contrary, relations between the Lula government and the Donald Trump administration were complicated during the campaign, including due to American tariffs.
It is also worth remembering that under Trump, Washington has noticeably strengthened its political and military presence in the region, including in the face of increased competition with China. In January, the American operation in Venezuela led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro. In March, the United States assembled the Shield of the Americas coalition with the participation of a number of Latin American governments, and the Trump administration openly declares the need to limit the influence of foreign powers in the Western Hemisphere.
Therefore, Flavio's victory will hit Brazil's relations with Moscow. In 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $10.9 billion: Brasilia exported about $1.5 billion worth of goods and imported $9.4 billion from Russia. Moscow has become the largest external supplier of mineral and chemical fertilizers and diesel fuel, accounting for 26% and 45% of Brazilian imports of these goods, respectively.
The parties are also trying to simplify the terms of mutual trade. Back in October 2023, the customs services of the two countries began work on an agreement on mutual recognition of authorized economic operators' programs. Such a mechanism should allow certified companies to receive priority during customs clearance, reduce cargo transit time and reduce logistical costs. Technical work on the document has now been officially suspended until conditions appear for its resumption. At the same time, the negotiations themselves did not stop.
"We are discussing an agreement on mutual recognition within the framework of the BRICS meetings,— the Brazilian Federal Tax Service told Izvestia.
There are no deadlines for completing this work right now. The parties are also not going to revise the plan already agreed upon by Russia and Brazil, the Brazilian tax service clarified.
As a result, the presidential elections in Brazil for the next 4 years — the next ones will be held in 2030 - will determine the country's position on the world stage. Brazil is a market with a population of over 214 million people, one of Russia's largest trading partners in Latin America and one of the founders of BRICS. If Flavio Bolsonaro wins, a rapprochement with Washington and a possible decrease in Brazil's activity in the BRICS can significantly change the balance of power in the world.
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