Boost supplies: Brazil aims to expand trade in national currencies with Russia

Brazil wants to expand the use of national currencies in bilateral trade, the country's ambassador to Russia, Sergio Rodriguez dos Santos, told "Izvestia". According to him, this is one of the priority areas of cooperation between the states. Moreover, the Brazilian side sees the greatest potential in the agro-industrial complex. Currently, only about 10% of payments between Russia and Brazil are made directly in rubles and reais. What could interfere with the plans is in the "Izvestia" material.

Why do Russia and Brazil need settlements in national currencies

The idea of expanding trade in national currencies looks like a logical continuation of the current economic line of Russia and Brazil: both sides want to make payments cheaper, more stable and less dependent on external currency infrastructure.

— Now the priority is to expand the use of national currencies, the Russian ruble and the Brazilian real, in individual trading operations. We consider this direction to be the most realistic at this stage," Sergio Rodriguez dos Santos told "Izvestia". — Before the transition to the use of a single currency (within the framework of the BRICS. — Ed.) or larger-scale settlement mechanisms still have to go through certain stages.

According to the diplomat, the fastest way to transfer trade to the agro-industrial complex is in rubles and reals. Russia remains Brazil's largest supplier of mineral fertilizers: in 2025, it accounted for 26% of agricultural chemicals imports, and 45% for potash fertilizers. Food and agricultural products are primarily moving in the opposite direction.

Switching to national currencies helps Russia secure trade from Western sanctions: such payments go directly, and they cannot be blocked through American or European banks. The abandonment of the dollar and euro allows transactions to bypass the SWIFT system and American correspondent banks, eliminating the risk of freezing funds. This model is already working most successfully with other BRICS partners: settlements with China have been almost completely (by 99%) converted to rubles and yuan, and the share of dollars and euros in trade with India has sharply decreased.

In the case of Brazil, the same problem arises as with India — a severe trade imbalance. It is because of this that rubles and reals account for only about 10% of turnover so far, said Victoria Panova, head of the BRICS-Russia Expert Council. Earlier, the same figure was cited by the country's former ambassador to Moscow, Rodrigo de Lima Baena Soares.

If we switch completely to national currencies, Brazilians will pay for our goods in their own reals. As a result, Russian companies will accumulate a lot of Brazilian currency, which simply has nowhere to go: you can't spend it inside the Russian Federation, and we don't have much else to buy with it in Brazil itself. Russia has already faced about the same problem in trade with India, when billions of rupees were suspended in accounts.

This problem can be solved according to the schemes that Russia has already worked out with India.Russia could invest its surplus reais directly inside Brazil, for example, by investing in local port logistics or agriculture. Another way is to expand purchases: the country is known not only for soybeans, but also for advanced engineering, including the production of Embraer aircraft and automotive components. Finally, the accumulated Brazilian currency can be used for settlements with third countries (for example, China or the UAE), which have their own large projects in Latin America and which need real money.

According to Victoria Panova, the expansion of settlements in national currencies may eventually change the structure of the trade itself. High-tech products still account for a small share of supplies. At the same time, there is a potential for expanding supplies in both directions. Russia has competencies in nuclear energy, space, IT security, quantum and biotechnologies. Brazil is strong in agrotechnology, biofuels, aircraft manufacturing, fintech, AI and other technological fields.

Elections in Brazil

According to Panova, the creation of a direct banking and clearing infrastructure between Russia and Brazil is a key condition for the transition to system payments. Among the necessary tools, the expert highlights the opening of direct correspondent accounts, the launch of alternative channels for the exchange of financial information and the integration of payment systems of the two countries.

In September, the dollar was worth about 5.1 reais, and over the past 12 months, the Brazilian currency has strengthened, making it a highly volatile means of payment. Regular settlements require a liquid market for the ruble/real pair, a mechanism for offsetting payments, and compatible financial information transmission channels.

However, the success of the transition to rubles and reals depends not only on the technical settings of the banks. According to Vladimir Davydov, scientific director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, everything depends on the demand for the currency itself. In order for the real or the ruble to become full-fledged instruments for international trade, there must be a steady demand for them outside of Russia and Brazil. As an example, the expert cites the Chinese yuan, which is gradually strengthening its position in the world. Creating such mechanisms always takes time, as countries need to agree on rules and find a balance of interests.

Fruitful cooperation: Brazil increases purchases of Russian fertilizers

The Russian Embassy reported that requests for increased supplies are received regularly.

The outcome of the Brazilian presidential election may also affect the prospects for calculations. The first round of voting will be held on October 4, and the second, if necessary, on October 25, 2026. Current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva advocates strengthening BRICS, cooperation with the countries of the Global South and the transition to national currencies. His main opponent, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, on the contrary, focuses on rapprochement with the United States.

— On the first day of my presidency, I will review Brazil's participation in the BRICS. This block is too ideologized and is used for provocations against the United States, including abandoning the dollar. We will consider the possibility of withdrawing from it," Flavio Bolsonaro said.

A possible change of power in Brasilia could completely freeze negotiations on the transition to rubles and reals. Polls show that the candidates are almost on a par. According to research conducted by Quaest and BTG Pactual on September 21, Lula is only 3-4 percentage points ahead of his opponent in the first round: Quaest has a balance of 37% versus 33%, and BTG has a balance of 40% versus 37%. At the same time, the gap is reduced to a minimum in the second round. The Quaest poll gives a symbolic advantage to Bolsonaro (42% vs. 41%), and BTG Pactual to Lula (46% vs. 45%). This difference completely fits within the statistical margin of error, which means that the candidates have equal chances of winning.

However, even if Brazil reduces its interest in BRICS after the elections, the global unification course towards de-dollarization will continue. The economic engine of this process remains Russia, China and India, which account for the bulk of trade within the bloc.