Block setting: NATO increases tensions with Russia
NATO is blocking initiatives to restore direct dialogue with Russia and discuss its legitimate concerns, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Moscow has warned the alliance that it will use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, in case of attempts to blockade the Kaliningrad region. Russia continues to insist on ending the expansion of NATO. However, the bloc's leadership is calling for increased support for Kiev and is avoiding a dialogue on security guarantees. Meanwhile, the EU is also becoming more and more like a military structure.
NATO refuses to engage in dialogue with Russia
The North Atlantic Alliance is conducting aggressive exercises to test a possible blockade of the Kaliningrad region, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on September 30. In August, large-scale air and land maneuvers took place near the region. And at the end of September, the British newspaper The I Paper published an article in which scenarios of an attack on Russian territory were discussed. And they are hardly based solely on assumptions. For example, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris in May called on NATO to strike at Russian military installations in Kaliningrad if necessary.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on September 30 that the alliance had received an official warning from Russia: Moscow would use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, in the event of attempts by the alliance to arrange an air or sea blockade of the Kaliningrad region. However, after that, Rutte only called on the members of the alliance to "remain calm" and continue to support Ukraine.
Moscow scares no one, and statements about the protection of the Kaliningrad region are a response to an attempt to intimidate Russia, Vladimir Putin stressed, speaking at a meeting of the Valdai discussion club on October 1. He called the exercises of Western countries in the Baltic Sea and attempts to detain Russian ships an escalation. Presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev said that the Russian president had given all the necessary instructions to ensure the security of the Kaliningrad region.
The European Union, where most countries are represented by NATO, is also gradually turning into a military bloc. In mid-September, EC President Ursula von der Leyen proposed creating a crisis response mechanism modeled on Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty on emergency consultations in the event of a threat to one member state.
Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that "Europe has decided to shape its security identity in the image and likeness of NATO." New defense initiatives are planned to be discussed at the EU summit in October, but proposals to restore dialogue with the Russian Federation have not reached practical implementation.
— Any sensible initiatives on the need to restore direct dialogue with Russia and discuss our legitimate concerns in the EU and NATO are blocked. As long as the erroneous opinion prevails in these structures that taking into account Russian interests in any form would be a defeat for the West, and not a condition for ensuring genuine stability and security in Europe, we will not get off the ground," Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
According to Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, NATO is escalating the situation around Kaliningrad to test Russia's military capabilities. The bloc uses non-military means to divert Moscow's attention and control Russian shipping in the Baltic. However, such actions increase the risk of accidental incidents, which can further lead to more serious consequences.
Complicating the situation is the fact that only emergency communication channels remain between Russia and NATO. However, the alliance did not use them during the UAV crashes in Romania and Poland, immediately blaming Moscow. Therefore, the first realistic step could be the restoration of a limited technical dialogue between the military departments, Ekaterina Antyukhova, professor at the MGIMO Department of World Political Processes at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, told Izvestia. It is more difficult to resume a political dialogue, as the conditions for this have not yet matured.
Security guarantees for Russia
Russian officials have repeatedly stressed that Moscow needs security guarantees from the West. For example, in the spring, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that without resolving this issue, "the conflict in Ukraine cannot be overcome." Vladimir Putin has previously stressed that they must be worked out for both Russia and Ukraine.
However, the "coalition of the willing," led by Britain and France, plans to guarantee security only to Ukraine, including the deployment of troops on Ukrainian territory, which Moscow opposes. Vladislav Maslennikov noted that "imitation of efforts for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis based on providing security guarantees only to Kiev is the way to nowhere."
Recently, Europe nevertheless tried to get in touch with Russia: on September 26, the foreign ministers of the Russian Federation and Germany met at the UN General Assembly in New York. However, after the meeting, Sergey Lavrov stated that he had not learned anything new from Johann Vadefool's speech. According to him, the German interlocutor only fully repeated Berlin's permanent position. Smolenskaya Square later stated that "there is no reason to consider the meeting a full-fledged manifestation of readiness to restore constructive and mutually respectful dialogue."
One of the main guarantees sought by the Russian Federation is Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. Moscow has previously pointed out that Kiev's accession to the bloc is unacceptable from a security point of view. Russia sent its proposals in the form of an agreement on security measures to the North Atlantic Alliance back in 2021. The treaty, in particular, provided for the cessation of further expansion of the bloc and the abandonment of any NATO military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia.
Prospects for the expansion of the alliance
NATO actually rejected this proposal, citing an open—door policy - the right to accept any state capable of contributing to the security of the region. After the start of the CBO in 2022, Finland and Sweden joined the bloc. The number of countries participating in the North Atlantic Treaty has increased to 32.
— Our principled position on the expansion of NATO has not changed. We consider the continuation of this policy of the alliance to be extremely destructive and insist on its termination," Maslennikov told Izvestia.
At the moment, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine have officially applied to join NATO. Sarajevo has managed to move forward to participate in the Membership Action Plan, but one of the country's entities, Republika Srpska, opposes joining the bloc. Georgia, on the other hand, cannot join the alliance until the territorial disputes over Abkhazia and South Ossetia are resolved. Slovakia and the United States openly opposed Ukraine's entry, and Hungary shared the same position under Viktor Orban. Unofficially, many more countries, including Italy and France, expressed doubts about Kiev's imminent admission.
According to Ekaterina Antyukhova, in the foreseeable future, NATO is unlikely to abandon its policy of expansion. For the alliance, this line remains one of the tools for strengthening its positions. However, the block is not likely to increase in the near future, the expert believes. Instead, we are talking about further spreading its military and political influence, developing cooperation with partner states, expanding joint exercises, and deepening military cooperation. For example, the Armenian Armed Forces have recently begun to adopt the standards of the alliance.
The risks of a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO are growing: the alliance is increasingly drawn into the conflict in Ukraine, and now it is "testing" Moscow in the Baltic. To normalize the situation, it is necessary to restore at least a technical dialogue, but so far Brussels does not plan to take into account the demands of the Russian Federation.
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