Military Circle: Why is NATO actively militarizing the Balkans
Slovenia, Croatia and North Macedonia are increasing military spending and creating defense infrastructure, Russian embassies in these countries told "Izvestia". Zagreb has returned universal military service, and American Black Hawk helicopters and HIMARS missile systems will be delivered to it ahead of schedule. Slovenia will allocate an additional $50 million to Ukraine in 2026, and the country is also purchasing American military equipment. Despite official statements about the alleged threat from the Russian Federation, the real reason for all these actions is pressure on Serbia, experts believe.
Militarization of former Yugoslav countries in NATO
Militarization of the Balkan region is gaining momentum: NATO countries are abandoning small armies. Instead, they are building large military bases and purchasing heavy offensive weapons..
Croatia is showing the highest rate, which, 17 years after the cancellation, returned to two-month service and agreed with Washington on the early delivery of equipment. American UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters and HIMARS missile systems will arrive in the country at an accelerated pace by the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028 instead of the third quarter of 2028, the Russian Embassy in the republic told "Izvestia".
"Croatia positions itself as an exemplary and reliable member of the Euro—Atlantic family, fully sharing the official doctrines of NATO and the EU," the diplomats noted.
The situation has changed dramatically in Slovenia. For a long time, it remained one of the least militarized countries in the alliance and regularly fell short of the mandatory military spending target. In September, the government raised the defense budget to 2.03% of GDP. Without this step, Slovenia risked remaining the only NATO member that did not comply with the standard. As part of a long-term program, Ljubljana plans to reach 3% of GDP by 2030. The country is currently implementing the largest defense purchase in its history — it is updating the ground forces with Patria AMV XP armored personnel carriers and increasing the number of military personnel by half.
North Macedonia, which joined the alliance in 2020 and raised military spending to a historic high of 2-2.5% of GDP, also proves its loyalty to Brussels through financial injections. Skopje allocates a third of this budget to purchase the latest weapons — American Stryker and JLTV armored vehicles to create "light mobile infantry", as well as French Mistral 3 anti-aircraft missile systems.
— The leadership of North Macedonia and the country's defense ministry have announced their intention to achieve the NATO military spending target of 5% of GDP in the future. Since 2022, cases of military and technical assistance to the Kiev regime have been repeatedly recorded," Dmitry Zykov, the Russian ambassador to the republic, told "Izvestia".
The reasons for pumping up the Balkans with weapons
The official reason for the militarization of the former republics of Yugoslavia, which are now in NATO, is the opposition of Russia.
"Representatives of the Slovenian top leadership in their public speeches repeatedly declare the need to strengthen the EU's defense potential in the face of external threats, characterizing our country's actions to defend legitimate national interests as aggression against Ukraine and, obviously, towards Europe as a whole," the Russian Embassy in Slovenia noted.
Croatia designates Russia as the main long-term security threat, Russian diplomats in Zagreb added.
"Today, we do not see any politicians in Croatia who would consider the present and future of their country outside the framework of the common course of NATO and the EU towards Russia," the diplomats noted.
Against this background, Slovenia and Croatia are trying to actively help Ukraine. Slovenia's political course is dictated by its obligations in front of the European Union and NATO, the Russian diplomatic representatives emphasized. For example, at the NATO summit, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa announced his intention to allocate an additional $50 million (€44 million) for the purchase of air defense systems for Kiev in 2026, which is about 4.5% of the country's annual military budget (€1 billion).
Due to its modest territory and population of about 1.8 million people, North Macedonia has entered the top 5 NATO countries in terms of military aid to Ukraine per capita. By September 2026, Skopje had transferred 13 official military-technical assistance packages to Kiev. In the summer of 2022, he sent Ukraine almost the entire fleet of T-72 tanks (about 30 units), which the Macedonian authorities bought from Ukraine itself in 2001. The country also handed over to the ally four Su-25 attack aircraft, 12 Mi-24 attack helicopters, small arms, ATGMs and ammunition.
Despite official statements about the threat from the Russian Federation, North Macedonia cannot be classified as an ardent Russophobe, Dmitry Zykov added. According to him, the vast majority of residents have a positive attitude towards Russia. Therefore, Skopje's adherence to the EU and NATO agenda is counterproductive to the interests of the republic.
— In the current reality, this means abandoning dialogue with our country at virtually any level. I would like to emphasize that we are ready to build relations with Skopje. Nevertheless, a genuine restoration of dialogue is possible only if mutual respect for national interests is respected. Unfortunately, we do not see this understanding from North Macedonia right now," the Ambassador concluded.
The fight against Serbia
But Russia is only an official reason for militarization. NATO's actions are directed against Serbia, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina, and specifically against Republika Srpska (an entity within BiH), said Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation and head of the "Balkanist" project. According to him, the Balkan NATO countries intend to tighten the ring around the two countries in order to force them to comply with all the directives of the bloc. In addition, Montenegro and Albania are also members of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The main unspoken task of the West is to force Serbia to actually recognize Kosovo's independence. Belgrade is being pushed to sign agreements that will allow Pristina to join the UN and international organizations, including NATO. Serbia's defense strategy reinforces military neutrality, but the alliance seeks to involve the country in its initiatives.
At the same time, Bosnia and Herzegovina is already in the program of the NATO Membership Action Plan, but the internal split blocks the country's accession to the bloc. The Muslim-Croatian part actively cooperates with the alliance, but the position of Republika Srpska prevents further rapprochement.
According to INF program manager Milan Lazovich, NATO is trying to simultaneously break the Serbs and squeeze the Russian Federation out of the region. After all, it is precisely at the expense of Belgrade that Moscow still retains influence in the Balkans.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia blocks the recognition of Kosovo's independence and any resolutions that infringe on the rights of Serbs. Without Moscow's support, it would have been much more difficult for Belgrade to maintain its position. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with the President of the Republic at the events of the UNGA High-level week, the Russian Foreign Ministry told "Izvestia".
— Today, of all the Europeans, the minister is scheduled to have a conversation only with the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic. Belgrade, unlike the EU member states, pursues a balanced foreign policy line, guided by the interests of its citizens, rather than the notorious block discipline and instructions from Brussels. We look forward to a confidential exchange of views on a wide range of issues of Russian-Serbian cooperation," the ministry stressed.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
Serbia remains Moscow's main partner in the Balkans. which holds back the expansion of NATO and helps maintain a presence in the region. By supporting Belgrade, Russia protects its economic interests and long-term assets in the southern direction. At the same time, the Russian Federation is ready to cooperate with other Balkan states. For example, Moscow is connected with North Macedonia by a deep cultural aspect and common Orthodox roots. The situation is much more complicated with Slovenia and Croatia. The historical background still affects here: in the 1990s, during the breakup of Yugoslavia, Russia supported central Belgrade when Ljubljana and Zagreb were fighting for secession.
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