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- Salary has been reached: a record number of employees in six years are waiting for salary indexation
Salary has been reached: a record number of employees in six years are waiting for salary indexation
About 58% of working Russians expect to increase or index their salaries in 2027, Izvestia found out. This is a record figure since at least 2020, when 36% hoped for an increase. High expectations persist during staff shortages and after the growth of employee incomes in previous years. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for companies to maintain the previous pace of wage increases: costs are rising, and shifting costs to prices increases inflationary pressures. To whom salaries will be indexed in 2027, see the Izvestia article.
How many Russians are waiting for salary indexation in 2027
Almost six out of 10 working Russians (58%) They expect to raise or index their salaries in 2027, according to a SuperJob survey (Izvestia has it). This is the highest figure since at least 2020 (no previous study was conducted), when 36% of respondents expected an increase.
Expectations vary markedly depending on age, SuperJob notes. Russians under the age of 35 expect the most increase (65%). In addition, men hope for a salary increase slightly more often than women (59% to 56%). Basically, employees who receive from 100 to 150 thousand rubles (64%) expect a salary revision. The study, conducted in October, involved 1.6 thousand adult Russians who have permanent jobs and live in 383 settlements in all federal districts.
In September, the Ministry of Energy lowered its forecast for real wage growth for 2027 from 2.5% to 1.8%. For 2028 and 2029, the estimate has not changed — 2.8% and 3%, respectively. Izvestia sent a request to the agency, as well as to the Ministry of Labor.
According to the Salary Data Bank service, more than 54% of companies have already indexed their employees this year, the press service said. hh.ru . Another 20% of enterprises plan to do this in November and December 2026. The average level of increase is 10% of the current income level of employees.
The average salary offer in Russia in January–October increased by 19% year-on-year and amounted to 85,246 rubles per month, said Roman Gubanov, Director of Development at Avito Rabota. According to him, there are also areas where growth was faster than the market. Among them, for example, the construction of residential and commercial facilities (+31%).
Why a record number of employees are hoping for indexation
Valery Tumin, a member of the expert council on the development of the digital economy under the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, believes that high expectations of an increase are primarily due to the accumulated growth in costs. Employees estimate their salary based on how much remains after buying groceries, paying for housing, transportation and other mandatory expenses, he explained. Hopes of receiving another amount often do not mean the desire to earn significantly more, but the desire to maintain the usual standard of living.
In addition, the intensive growth of nominal wages in 2022-2024 against the background of a shortage of personnel could consolidate the idea of an annual significant increase as the norm for a significant part of Russians, added Darina Medvednikova, a junior researcher at the Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy (RANEPA).
Currently, there is still a shortage of personnel in many industries, but as early as 2025, businesses began to end the salary race. Companies can no longer increase labor costs at the same pace, the expert noted.
Will the business be able to provide indexing
About 16.5% of companies have already included in their plans the need for indexation in the first quarter of 2027, the press service said. hh.ru .
In general, for an employer, the opportunity to raise salaries depends on revenue, profitability, cost of financing and labor productivity. If sales do not grow, but materials, rent and loan servicing become more expensive, it becomes more difficult to maintain the previous rate of salary increase, Valery Tumin emphasized.
At the same time, savings also have a price: the departure of an experienced employee can cost more than an increase, the expert believes. Therefore, additional increases in amounts are likely to be selective, taking into account the qualifications, results and complexity of replacing a person, a member of the expert council believes. But lack of money or lack of staff shortage by themselves do not cancel the employer's obligation to ensure the indexation provided for by law, he added.
As Izvestia wrote, in 2027, salaries of certain categories of employees of federal institutions will increase by 8%, this is provided for in the budget. This will affect the areas of healthcare, education, science, culture and social security. Indexing will be carried out from January 1.
A different procedure has been established for military personnel and employees of law enforcement agencies — an increase of 4% from October 1, 2027. In addition, the minimum wage has been increased to 28,935 rubles. If the employee's earnings fall below this minimum, the employer is obliged to bring it up to the established level.
According to Darina Medvednikova, in 2027, a noticeable indexation will be observed in a narrower set of industries than in recent years. It will remain significant primarily in scarce and strategically important sectors.
Qualified workers and engineers in industry, doctors, as well as experienced IT specialists, primarily in information security and infrastructure, have the most chances to increase, Valery Tumin believes. According to him, the shortage of salespeople, cooks and store administrators may also push employers to increase their pay.
Otherwise, it will not be possible to close vacancies and get a qualified specialist or retain employees, Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets, associate professor of the Basic Department of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry "Human Resource Management" at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, agreed.
In 2027, in addition to indexation, a fairly large percentage of employees can expect to receive a salary increase. However, the growth rate of salaries and the number of those who will still receive a salary increase will be lower than in recent years. Companies will no longer go to the previous salary race.
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