Wages: The Ministry of Energy has doubled its forecast for salary growth
In the updated macro forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development has almost doubled its estimate of real wage growth in 2026 — from 2.2% to 4%, and retail turnover — from 0.8% to 4.6%. This follows from the documents of the department, which "Izvestia" has. However, the price for the prolonged consumer boom was a jump in the inflation forecast to 6.8% and a deepening decline in investment to -5.4%. At the same time, the estimate of GDP growth has been adjusted up only symbolically — to 0.6%. The growing imbalance between supply and demand is fixing the overheating of the economy, which, according to experts, makes it impossible for the Bank of Russia to move to an early reduction in the key rate.
How much will salaries increase in the Russian Federation
The Ministry of Energy has revised the macro forecast for 2026-2029: it has already been approved by the government. The estimate of GDP growth compared to the May version has been changed minimally: from 0.4% to 0.6%, according to the documents available to "Izvestia". Such rates can be considered near zero: cosmetic adjustments of several tenths of a percent are insignificant now, says Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at "BCS World of Investments". However, taking into account the strong demand indicators, the target of 0.6–0.8% by the end of the year is achievable, he noted.
The key driver of this weakly positive growth is citizens' incomes and trade turnover, said independent expert Andrei Barkhota. This is exactly what follows from the agency's forecast: the strongest adjustments in September affected indicators related to consumer demand. The estimate of real wage growth in September was almost doubled, from 2.2% in the spring to 4%. The forecast for retail trade turnover for 2026 soared several times: from 0.8% to 4.6%. Expectations for an increase in real disposable incomes of the population have also been adjusted for improvement, from 0.8% to 1%. All this suggests that this year's economy is mainly based on a heated consumer sector.
The wage race and competition for staff are slowing down weaker than expected, a representative of the Ministry of Energy told reporters. He added that the savings rate has also fallen sharply, from 16% in 2025 to a projected 9% now. So far, citizens have not withdrawn money from deposits, but the tendency to save from current income has significantly decreased due to the implementation of deferred demand, the ministry said.
This trend is confirmed by the acceleration of credit activity of the population after a long period of savings behavior, Ilya Fedorov added.
— For the economy, this means that GDP growth of 0.6% is provided not by production, but by consumption and the budget. This model is less stable: It does not create jobs in the real sector and does not increase productivity," explained Anna Polyakova, an economist and head of the Moscow branch of the Independent Trade Union "Novy Trud".
What will happen to prices in 2026
The downside of the consumer boom was a sharp deterioration in forecasts for inflation and business capital investments. The Ministry of Economic Development has raised its estimate of consumer price growth by the end of 2026 from 5.2% to 6.8%.
At the same time, investments in fixed assets decreased significantly.: Instead of the 1.5% decline expected in the spring, a 5.4% drop is now forecast. This is a direct consequence of the high cost of borrowed funds, Anna Polyakova is sure. With a key rate higher than the profitability of most industries, new projects become economically impractical and companies prefer only to maintain existing capacities rather than expand them.
— As a result, consumer demand is growing faster than the economy can satisfy it. Inflation at the end of 2026 at the level of 6.8% is a natural price to pay for the gap between supply and demand," the expert explained.
The current configuration of the macro forecast does not leave the Bank of Russia room for quick maneuver, Andrei Barkhota noted. On the one hand, the acceleration of consumption dictates the need for a tight monetary policy, on the other hand, the investment downturn threatens to freeze the technological development of the real sector.
The regulator will have to keep the rate high for longer than it would like, Anna Polyakova believes. She cited the threat of stagflation as the main risk — a combination of low GDP growth and high inflation, in which the Central Bank can neither lower the rate (so as not to disperse prices) nor raise it (without further damage to the economy). If external conditions worsen and the ruble weakens, the pause in the easing cycle may drag on until 2027, the expert says.
— The Central Bank is in an extremely difficult position. Taking into account the totality of pro-inflationary factors, the rate should be raised radically, immediately to 16-18%. But it is problematic to do this, taking into account the processes in the real sector. Probably, the strategy of the Bank of Russia is to keep the key at current levels until better times, which will come no earlier than the second quarter of next year,— Andrey Barkhota agrees.
At the same time, "BCS World of Investments" expects that by the end of 2026, the Central Bank may still reduce the key rate, but no more than once, and the step will be minimal. According to Ilya Fedorov, the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is not a direct guide for the Central Bank: the regulator analyzes the entire range of macroeconomic parameters and will make a decision based on its own assessment of inflation risks.
The ministry's figures show a fragile but still balanced state, and the success of further economic expansion will depend on whether businesses can wait for the cost of borrowed money to decrease and resume production modernization in 2027, Anna Polyakova summed up.
At the same time, according to the CEO of the Association for the Development of Literacy, business continues to adapt to legislative changes that have adjusted the tax burden and increased the share of costs on the cost of production. In addition, the indicators of the cost of fuel and energy resources on the global market and the real demand for them, despite all the sanctions and prohibitions, will help to maintain the dynamics of GDP in a positive plane.
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