Vienna interest: Medvedev may qualify for the Final this week

After winning the Alma Ata tournament, Daniil Medvedev took a big step towards qualifying for the Final ATP Championship in Turin. Last year, the Russian missed this tournament for the first time in seven years, but 2026 is shaping up quite successfully for him. Daniil has already won four titles, lagging behind only Italian Yannick Sinner, who won six competitions. At the same time as Medvedev, Elena Rybakina, a native of Moscow, defended her title at the five hundredth anniversary in Ningbo and thus almost guaranteed herself the first place in the ranking at the end of the year. Mirra Andreeva has a chance to finish the season in the status of the second racket of the world.

Medvedev has a solid supply of points.

Medvedev, thanks to his triumph in Kazakhstan, rose to fifth place in the championship race, ahead of Roland Garros finalist Flavio Kobolli. The Italian revived a little last week, breaking a series of three defeats in official matches, but lost in the semifinals of Lyon to Lorenzo Musetti (who eventually became champion in France). This gave Daniil a chance to overtake Flavio, which the Russian took advantage of, finding himself 20 points ahead after his title.

However, this is a symbolic advantage, which, although pleasant, does not solve much three weeks before the finish of the race. Another thing is more important: Medvedev did not allow Kobolli to get ahead of himself in the ranking for 52 weeks (and there was such a possibility last week) and secured the fourth number of seeding at the Paris Masters. This means that Daniil will lead his quarter of the grid and will not face any of the three Alexander Zverev – Carlos Alcaraz – Ben Shelton before the semifinal stage. Flavio will face one of them (or Daniel himself) in the quarterfinals.

Medvedev can secure a trip to Turin this week in Vienna. However, to do this, you will most likely need to win the title or at least become a finalist. The lower threshold of points for qualifying for the Final is not indicated on the official websites of the ATP and WTA, but it can be found on specialized resources where all ratings are counted in live mode. There is a possibility of small errors in the qualification thresholds, but in general they help to navigate the current situation.

According to this information, now for a guaranteed trip to the Final, men need to score 4,030 points. Of course, as applicants depart for Turin this week, the threshold will decrease. Daniel has 3660 points, the Vienna final gives 330 points, and the title gives 500. At the same time, a good result in Vienna will displace 50 points for Doha 2026, so in the case of the final, Medvedev will score 3940 points in the championship race.

At his own set and risk: Medvedev will have to endure a busy schedule for the sake of the Final tournament

Daniil is ahead of the competition, and Mirra Andreeva has already won a ticket to Indian Wells.

If the pursuers (Artur Fis, Francis Tiafoe, Rafael Hodar, Alex de Minaur, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul) suffer early defeats in Vienna and Basel, then the qualifying threshold may shift down enough for 3,940 points to be enough to win a ticket to Turin this week. As for Daniil's fatigue, he did not play a single long match at the Alma Ata tournament (2.5 hours in total on the way to the final and 1:50 for the title match), so he probably recovered sufficiently after a series of intense tournaments in China.

At the same time, the possible early defeat of Medvedev himself in Vienna will not be a tragedy for him. Last week, Alex de Minaur and Novak Djokovic didn't play in 10th and 11th, and Daniil increased his lead over the Australian to 780 points. The first racket of the world, Yannick Sinner, finished the season ahead of schedule, so the ninth place in the Championship race became a qualification one — accordingly, you need to focus on the tennis player in tenth place and not let him get ahead of himself.

On the other hand, this is a minimum task, but the higher Daniel is in the ranking in the case of qualifying for Turin, the easier the group he will get. And you should not forget about the beginning of the next season, as well as about the seeding at the Australian Open. In the event of a shock ending to this year, Medvedev can overtake both Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz, return to the top 4 of the rankings and get a good draw in Melbourne - here the layouts are the same as with the seeding at the Masters in Paris, only there Sinner will surely play.

Mirra Andreeva's request for second place

The intrigue with qualifying for the Final tournament for women remained only in doubles, and the most powerful one — five duos are competing for the last slot, including Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini, who were recently the top pair. In general, all eight duets in Indian Wells would already be known, but Alexandra Krunich broke the "crosses" at the US Open and was out for more than six months, so she and the representative of Kazakhstan, Anna Danilina, will not play at the Final championship. In the championship race, they are on the third line.

The third is not superfluous: Mirra Andreeva has reached a new peak in the world ranking

Despite losing in the Beijing final, the Russian entered the top 3 and decided to skip the tournament in Wuhan in order to prepare for the Final WTA

As for the usual ranking, Elena Rybakina almost guaranteed herself a top-place finish at the end of the year. The early coronation of the representative of Kazakhstan may take place as early as this week — she needs to reach the semifinals at the centennial in Tokyo, that is, to win two matches there. Just a year ago, this result brought Elena the last ticket to the Final Championship (thanks to the semifinals, she overtook Mirra Andreeva), and now it can officially consolidate Rybakina in the rank of the first racket of the world until the end of the season.

At the same time, Elena, in principle, could not have played in Tokyo, but this is probably due to obligations to her Japanese sponsor, who supplies both rackets and clothes. There are no other major tournaments in Japan, and the company probably wants to see Rybakina in their country at least once a year for promotional events.

If Elena does not win two matches in Tokyo, she will be crowned in Indian Wells. Rybakina's title in Ningbo eliminated Mirra Andreeva from the list of even theoretical contenders for the first place at the end of the year, and now only Arina Sobolenko has a tiny chance. However, the Belarusian, who has not been at the peak of her form for a long time, needs to win all five matches in the Final and at the same time expect that Rybakina will not win a single victory there. The probability of this, of course, is extremely low.

But Mirra may well end the year with the second racket of the world. She needs to win two more matches in the group than Arina, and then perform no worse than her in the playoffs (if both get there). Other options are to win at least as many victories in the group stage as Sobolenko, and then make it to the finals if the Belarusian defeats in the semifinals, or to win fewer matches in the group than Arina and win the title. At the same time, Andreeva herself may be overtaken by Pegula, Gauff and Svitolina, so you also need to look back.