At his own set and risk: Medvedev will have to endure a busy schedule for the sake of the Final tournament

The 2026 tennis season is coming to a close. All the WTA-1000 tournaments have already been completed for women, and several more competitions are ahead for men, including the final Masters in Paris. At the same time, seven of the eight tickets to the Final Championship have already been distributed to the WTA, while only three players have officially qualified for the ATP. Among the main contenders for the remaining places is Daniil Medvedev, who will not only have to maintain an advantage over his competitors, but also competently distribute his forces during the crucial part of the season.

How can Medvedev get to Turin

Medvedev is sixth in the championship race, despite not being awarded 200 points for the Beijing semifinals. Recall that Daniil was disqualified at the end of the semifinal match in the capital of China with Novak Djokovic, due to the fact that he hit the ball that bounced off after the draw with his racket and accidentally hit one of the fans in the stands in the eye. Such a disqualification means that the tennis player does not receive either rating points or prize money earned at the tournament. If you virtually add these 200 points to the Russian, then he would be fifth in the race, but even without that, everything is not bad.

Yannick Sinner had previously announced the early end of the season, making the ninth place in the championship race a milestone. The Italian scored 7,950 points this year and is finishing second, so he qualified for Turin even before he decided to take care of his health and no longer play on the court in 2026. In general, the season is, of course, strange. Over the past two years, Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have shared all the Grand Slam tournaments equally. The Italian won the AustralianOpen twice, the US Open and Wimbledon once, the Spaniard won twice at Roland Garros, and also took one title each in London and New York. It seemed that the era of "Big 3 + Andy Murray" had been replaced by the era of "Sinkaras" and no one else could win titles at the majors now. The only thing that raised doubts was Carlos' susceptibility to injury.

In fact, both leaders had health problems this year, and they were quite serious and alternately so. And if last season Alcaraz and Sinner managed to play each other six times, despite the latter's disqualification due to doping for three months, and met in all Slam finals, except for the Australian Open (where Yannick defeated Alexander Zverev in three sets), then this year between them There was only one match in the final of the Masters in Monte Carlo. Sinner won in two sets, and Alcaraz played another match the following week and was out for more than four months due to a wrist injury. By the time he returned to the tour, Yannick was no longer there — the Italian had defended his Wimbledon title and was no longer on court due to knee problems.

Medvedev's chances of a Final

But back to the fight for Turin. Alcaraz qualified there as the champion of the Australian Open-2026. Zverev, who won as many as two majors this year, secured his place in the Final a long time ago, and after Sinner finished the season ahead of schedule, he guaranteed himself the first place in the ranking. The only question now is when Alexander will rise to the top — after the Paris Masters, which is very likely, or after the Final tournament, when Yannick will burn 1,500 points for the title.

Following the results of Shanghai, US Open finalist Ben Shelton, who scored 4,480 points this season, received a ticket to Turin.

More than a dozen players are competing for the remaining five places. Even Andrei Rublev and Karen Khachanov, who are in the third ten in the race, retain theoretical chances, but let's still discuss the most realistic contenders. Currently, the top 9 includes Flavio Cobolli (3,540 points), Daniil Medvedev (3,420), Francis Tiafoe (3,380), Arthur Fis (3,325) and Rafael Hodar (3,159). Their closest pursuers are Alex de Minaur (2880) and Novak Djokovic (2840). Tommy Paul, who is 12th, is well behind and will not be able to overtake the legendary Serb this week, even if he becomes the ATP 250 champion in Lyon.

Of the top 10 races this week, only Medvedev, Kobolli and Fis have been announced anywhere. Daniil was seeded number one in Almaty, Flavio in Lyon, and Arthur in Brussels. The distribution of the last two is rather strange, considering that the tournament in Lyon is Fisa's home, but there are probably reasons for this decision. We can recall Mikhail Yuzhny, who for several years played in Stockholm and Antwerp after Shanghai due to a conflict with the organizers of the Kremlin Cup.

Kobolli is on a three-game losing streak in official tournaments, starting with the 3rd round match of the US Open (plus he lost his match in the Laver Cup). Fis won the Cincinnati Masters in August, defeating Kobolli in the semifinals, but things didn't go well for him either. Medvedev and Khodar, who met in the semi-finals of Shanghai last week, are really on the move right now. By the way, Rafael's defeat by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the title match of this Masters did not allow the Spaniard to get ahead of the Russian in the championship race.

Medvedev's margin relative to de Minaur, who is in 10th place, is decent - 540 points. Given that neither Alex nor Novak are playing this week, Daniil is guaranteed to be in the top 9 of the race before the start of the Paris Masters, even if he himself has not added a single point by that time. In such a situation, it would seem worth considering sacrificing one of the minor tournaments, either in Alma Ata or in Vienna.

It was clear from the matches in Shanghai that Medvedev was running out of energy, and this is not surprising — he held 13 meetings in 22 days in China! Yes, all but three of these matches were two-set matches, but Medvedev spent 2.5 hours on court with Djokovic in the Beijing semifinals before he was disqualified. In short, a lot of effort has been spent, and it is doubtful that Daniel will be enough for three more weeks in a row. Yes, that's exactly how he played last year, but, firstly, he was eliminated in the second match in Hangzhou, and now he has become the champion there (plus two games), and secondly, the Alma Ata title was followed by an early defeat in Vienna, already in the second round.

The third is not superfluous: Mirra Andreeva has reached a new peak in the world ranking

Despite losing in the Beijing final, the Russian entered the top 3 and decided to skip the tournament in Wuhan in order to prepare for the Final WTA

From a strategic point of view, the choice between which of these two tournaments to sacrifice is not so clear. On the one hand, if you take off from Alma Ata or take off there at the start, you can get the necessary respite right now instead of dragging on for another week. On the other hand, in the current conditions, this is the only conditionally home tournament for all Russian-speaking players and you probably don't want to miss it.

There will be a much stronger squad in Vienna. If Luciano Darderi, who is not even in the top 20, is seeded second in Alma Ata, then Zverev, Kobolli, Tiafoe, de Minaur, Medvedev's "favorite" Tien, and Rublev and Khachanov, who also flew to Kazakhstan, are announced for the Austrian tournament. In addition, Daniel will start from the first lap, not the second. Yes, the final of the "pentathlete" gives 330 points, but the semi—final is only 200, which is less than the title in Alma Ata. Given the level of the opponents, there are probably more chances to win again in Kazakhstan than to reach the decisive match in Austria.

Of course, in any case, everything will be decided definitively for Medvedev and the other contenders in Paris, but it is important to approach the final Masters of the season with a reserve of strength — and preferably with some points, so that a possible misfire at an early stage does not become a disaster in terms of the fight for the Final. By the way, Djokovic recently received a wild card to Basel, so, apparently, this season he wants to play in Turin for the first time in three years — in 2024 and 2025, the Serb withdrew from the Final tournament, although he won the right to play there.

Rybakina is close to leadership

Women have only one ticket left vacant for the Final One, which this year was moved from Riyadh to Indian Wells. During the "thousandth" in Wuhan, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff secured a place at the Final home tournament (despite the fact that the latter withdrew from this Chinese competition, where she won the title a year ago), and Igi Sventek's defeat by Maya Khvalinskaya in the semifinals guaranteed Elina Svitolina's qualification. She will become the first mother since 2010 to compete in the singles of the Final Championship — that season Kim Kleisters not only qualified, but won the title.

Earlier, participation in the Final was provided by Elena Rybakina, Arina Sobolenko, Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova (as the champion of one of the "Slams" of this season — Wimbledon). This will be the debut for Mirra and Linda, and the other five have already competed at the Final Championships. Rybakina is his current champion — she beat Sobolenko in the final of Riyadh last season. By the way, this week Elena will perform in Ningbo, where she defends the title, and if she wins there, she practically guarantees herself the first place by the end of the year. Theoretically, only Arina will fight her then, Mirra will lose all chances — one match won by Rybakina at the Final or one defeat there by Sobolenko will be enough to officially crown the representative of Kazakhstan as the first racket of the world at the end of the season.

And even if Elena doesn't win in Ningbo, her chances are still excellent — the margin for Arina in the race is almost 1,000 points, and for Mirra — more than 1,100. At the same time, both Sobolenko and Andreeva will perform only at the Final stage, where they can score a maximum of 1,500 points. As for the last ticket to Indian Wells, Karolina Mukhova, Iga Sventek and Marta Kostyuk are competing for it. The Czech is not playing this week, and the Polish and Ukrainian need not only to perform as well as possible in Ningbo (ideally to take the title), but also to get points next week in order to get ahead of Carolina.