How much is an American: in November, the dollar may fall below 80 rubles

In November, the ruble may strengthen to below 80 per dollar, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast. In recent weeks, the "American dollar" has weakened — on October 26, it was already trading at 80.54 rubles. Such indicators are supported by news about the diesel deal and peace talks, currency sales by exporters and a high key rate, which the Central Bank left at 14%. What will affect the exchange rate in the near future and who benefits from a strong ruble is in the Izvestia article.

Why did the ruble rise at the end of October

Over the past few weeks, the ruble has noticeably strengthened. On Monday, October 26, by 18:00 Moscow time, the dollar was at around 80.54 rubles, it follows from the trading data. In seven days, the Russian currency rose in price against the "American" by 2.4%, and in a month — by 4.5%.

First of all, the favorable situation in the commodity markets led to the strengthening of the ruble, said Alexander Dzhioev, head of the Macroeconomics and Stock Market Group at Alfa Capital Management Company. The cost of raw materials is updating multi-month highs amid tensions in the Middle East, said Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital. By 18:00 Moscow time, Urals brand fuel cost $104 per barrel, and Brent — $115 per barrel. In addition, on that day, November gas futures at the TTF hub rose to $1,108 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to trading data on the ICE Futures exchange.

The high supply of foreign currency from exporters also contributes to the growth of the ruble exchange rate, Alexander Dzhioev added. According to the Bank of Russia, net sales of foreign currency by non-financial companies increased by 26% to $23.7 billion in September, he recalled.

Other foreign policy news is also noticeably affecting the foreign exchange market. Earlier this month, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reached an agreement on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to world markets. After that, the US Treasury removed diesel from sanctions until April 2027, and the Russian government partially lifted the export ban. On October 23, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that the first three tankers with Russian raw materials had already been sent to the east coast of the Atlantic Ocean.

The ruble also strengthened on the news of a new step in the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. On October 21, Vladimir Putin met with the special representative of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff. Moscow is ready to resume negotiations in the Russia–USA–Ukraine format. The new round is expected to take place in November.

The exchange rate is also affected by tight monetary policy. On Friday, October 23, the Central Bank kept the rate at 14% per annum for the second time in a row. The high key value makes ruble-denominated instruments more attractive and restrains demand for foreign currency, said Guzel Protsenko, CEO of Alfa-Forex. At the same time, as Izvestia wrote earlier, the Central Bank may not lower the key rate until the end of the year. This factor will continue to affect the ruble.

The budgetary policy of the authorities is also important. Investors will take into account the planned parameters of the new financial plan and the deficit for 2027-2029 — moderate spending will restrain inflationary expectations and maintain confidence in the ruble, Valeria Popova, senior analyst at the Rikom-Trust investment company, recalled.

New exchange rate: will the ruble fall before the end of the year

Experts have predicted the value of the dollar and the yuan

What will happen to the ruble before the end of the year

The Russian currency will continue to strengthen in the near future, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. According to their estimates, in November it may approach 75 rubles/$. In particular, the market will be affected by export earnings from the sale of energy resources at high prices, explained Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.

Further strengthening of the ruble after November is unlikely, as demand for the currency traditionally increases in December, Valeria Popova notes. This is due to preparations for New Year's trips and an increase in import purchases — both factors are working to weaken the ruble. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, by the end of the year, the exchange rate may return to the range of 80-85 rubles/$ and even approach its upper limit.

It is possible that the "American" will reach up to 90 rubles, analysts admitted. This scenario is possible with a combination of several factors: a decrease in world oil prices (to $60-80 per barrel), an increase in imports, an increase in foreign currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance, or increased geopolitical risks.

At the same time, there are still factors constraining the strengthening of the ruble. In September, there was a gradual change in the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, said Alexander Dzhioev from Alfa Capital Management Company. Non—financial companies increased sales, and business demand also increased significantly in September - by 37.7% (to 1.5 trillion rubles). The population also increased the volume of currency purchases by 16.9 billion (to 91.5 billion rubles).

Another factor of pressure on the ruble is the increase in the operations of the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. This is a mechanism that limits the use of oil and gas revenues. The base price of oil is included in the budget (the "cut—off price") — revenues from the sale of raw materials within its limits go to current expenses, and excess profits are directed to reserves, primarily to the National Welfare Fund. If prices fall and there is not enough income, funds from the fund can be used to cover the deficit.

Since October 7, the daily volume of purchases of currency and gold by the Ministry of Finance has increased more than fivefold — from 2.5 billion to 12.7 billion rubles, the expert said. This way, there are more people willing to buy the currency on the market, which gradually balances its supply.

A strong ruble is beneficial primarily to importers (companies buying foreign equipment and components), as well as consumers. It reduces the cost of imported goods in ruble terms and helps to contain inflation, explained Vladimir Chernov.

At the same time, the strengthening of the national currency creates difficulties for exporters, especially oil and gas, metallurgical and chemical companies, the analyst added. When converting foreign currency earnings into rubles, they receive less, while a significant part of the expenses remains in the national currency. For the budget, this also means a decrease in revenues from oil and gas exports.