New exchange rate: will the ruble fall before the end of the year
The third quarter was not the best for the ruble, as the exchange rate of the Russian currency noticeably weakened against both the dollar and the yuan. The loss to the "American" was 8.5%, to the yuan — almost 10%. In the over-the-counter market, the dollar even rose above 86 rubles. Against the background of the stable situation in previous quarters (the ruble did not fluctuate much at all for more than a year) this drop turned out to be quite noticeable. The collapse was caused by both seasonal and market reasons. Whether the decline will continue in the last months of 2026, what will affect the ruble in October–December and how this will be combined with the general situation in the economy — in the Izvestia article.
Expected collapse
The weakening of the ruble in the third quarter was quite expected and was predicted, among other things, in the Izvestia article in July. There were many reasons. Firstly, the decline in oil prices closer to the middle of the year (and, consequently, a drop in exports), which manifested itself in the foreign exchange market with a lag of one and a half to two months. In July, the 29 largest exporters reduced their currency sales by 70% at once. Even if revenues remained high, with the current monetary policy and high interest rates, it was more profitable for a number of companies to attract ruble loans for operating activities than to convert foreign currency earnings or leave them in foreign accounts.
Secondly, the Bank of Russia pointed to the "non-standard behavior of certain large market participants," who usually acted as net sellers of foreign currency, but in the summer temporarily reduced supply or showed additional demand for foreign exchange assets.
In parallel with the decline in business sales, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank adjusted the volume of operations in the foreign exchange market: the ministry allocated additional oil and gas revenues for the purchase of currency / gold. In early autumn, plans to significantly increase purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule also exerted local pressure on the ruble exchange rate.
By the end of September and the beginning of October, the rate of weakening of the Russian currency slowed down. The ruble began to be supported by rising oil prices (the September increase in Urals / Brent quotations), the maintenance of a tight key rate of the Bank of Russia and the end of the summer vacation season, which keeps the dollar in the region of 83.5–85 rubles, and the yuan — about 12.4–12.7 rubles.
Preparing for winter
In the fourth quarter, the market dynamics will be determined by the balance between the inflow of export earnings and the demand for foreign currency within the country. The key driver here is the commodity situation. The aggravation of the situation in the Middle East keeps oil prices at high levels, which traditionally plays in favor of strengthening the national currency.
However, in the current macroeconomic conditions, expensive oil has a downside. According to the mechanism of the budget rule, excess profits from the export of hydrocarbons are directed to the purchase of foreign currency and gold by the Ministry of Finance. An increase in the volume of such interventions creates an additional overhang of demand in the domestic market. Natalia Pyrieva, director of the Digital Broker analytical department, points out that it is precisely the high commodity prices and the associated activity of the financial department that will exert moderate pressure on the ruble until the end of the year.
The mechanics of the budget rule have an important feature — time lag. The operations of the Ministry of Finance react to the price dynamics of export varieties with some delay. According to Andrey Melashchenko, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, the autumn purchases of foreign currency reflect the price peaks of previous months. This creates additional pressure on stock quotes at a time when financial authorities are withdrawing liquidity from the market to replenish sovereign funds.
The behavior of exporting companies will also play a role. On the one hand, October is an important period: corporations will have to pay the additional income tax (income tax), as well as the payment of interim dividends. To fulfill these obligations, commodity producers will be forced to convert significant amounts of foreign exchange earnings, which will support the ruble.
On the other hand, the supply of currency from the business may be lower than expected. Companies in the real sector need capital to upgrade their fixed assets. A significant portion of export earnings can be reserved in foreign accounts for the purchase of imported equipment, including for the repair of damaged industrial and oil and gas infrastructure, Natalia Pyrieva notes.
Cross-border settlements are a separate factor determining the balance in the foreign exchange market. Sanctions pressure continues to complicate payments abroad. These barriers act as a two-way filter: they slow down the flow of foreign exchange earnings from exporters, but at the same time restrain imports, as companies spend weeks searching for working payment channels. If in the summer the Central Bank recorded a significant acceleration in the import of foreign goods, then in the autumn this trend will face restrictions. The high key rate will also restrain imports. Expensive loans are gradually cooling consumer demand within the country, which will inevitably reduce the need for retail chains to purchase foreign goods.
The structure of currency trading itself continues to transform. Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, emphasizes the importance of changing currency settlements. The growing share of the ruble in the structure of payments for exports and imports is changing the usual mechanisms of exchange rate formation. An increase in contracts in the national currency reduces the overall need of the economy in dollars, euros and yuan, making the exchange rate less susceptible to short-term spikes in demand from individual importers.
Smooth descent
Forecasts of the depth of the further weakening of the ruble differ significantly. Renaissance Capital adheres to the conservative scenario, expecting that the exchange rate will remain close to current values in the last months of the year. Andrey Melashchenko predicts that the benchmark for the end of the year will remain at 85 rubles per dollar and 12.7 rubles per yuan, while allowing for the usual market volatility.
Finam analysts are laying out a wider corridor. According to Nikolai Dudchenko, in the basic version, the American currency will spend the fourth quarter in the range of 82-87 rubles, while the Chinese currency will spend 12-13 rubles. In case of a negative scenario (with a sharp drop in commodity prices or new logistical shocks), the company allows the dollar to rise to the range of 90-95 rubles, and the yuan to 13.2 rubles.
Natalia Pyrieva is inclined to believe that pressure on the national currency will prevail. The analyst expects a smooth movement of the exchange rate in the direction of 90 rubles per US dollar.
By the end of the year, the Russian foreign exchange market will seek a balance between export revenues and increased government spending. The Central Bank's tough stance protects the ruble from sharp collapses, but an objective increase in the cost of imports and operations of the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule will not allow it to move to a steady strengthening.
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