Tax investment: budget changes will bring 3.6 trillion rubles in three years
Additional treasury revenues from all the changes included in the budget for the next three years will amount to 3.6 trillion rubles. At the same time, tax adjustments will bring in more than 3.2 trillion, Izvestia calculated based on an explanatory note to the draft budget. Almost half will be accounted for by the progressive personal income tax scale — 1.4 trillion rubles, another 600 billion will be collected from the super-income tax (for companies in the mining and metallurgical sector) and about 400 billion will be taxed on dividends. The funds will help partially cover the budget deficit, which, according to the government's plans, will amount to about 2% of GDP annually. How this will affect the economic stability and policy of the Bank of Russia on the key rate is in the Izvestia article.
How much will the changes in the new budget bring to the treasury
Federal budget revenues in 2027 will grow by almost 5.1% compared to the estimate for this year, to 43.3 trillion rubles, according to the draft for the next three years. In total, over 2027-2029, the treasury will receive more than 137.7 trillion. The bulk of the revenue will be provided by non—oil and gas revenues - 115.4 trillion.
The volume of revenues from the federal budget is steadily growing, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia. By the end of 2025, revenues amounted to 37.3 trillion rubles, and in 2026, according to the calculations of the authorities, the figure will increase to 40.3 trillion. At the same time, more than 80% of revenues come from non-oil and gas revenues. The Ministry of Finance attributes this to the expansion of budget revenue sources and the development of domestic sectors of the economy.
In general, changes in legislation will additionally bring 3.6 trillion rubles to the budget, the ministry said. At the same time, new initiatives in the field of taxes and fees will replenish the treasury by 3.2 trillion, Izvestia estimates. In 2027, additional revenues will amount to 1.4 trillion rubles, in 2028 - about 900 billion, and in 2029 — about 1 trillion, according to the document. The Accounting Chamber provided comparable figures in its conclusion.
The largest amount of income in three years will be provided by the extension of the progressive personal income tax scale (13-22%) to investment and passive income — about 1.4 trillion rubles. Another 600 billion rubles will be allocated for the excess income tax for mining companies, the appendix says.
Changing the tax rate on income in the form of dividends transferred to type "C" accounts in favor of individuals from unfriendly countries will provide the budget with 390 billion rubles over three years. Another 300 billion will come from taxation of income from the trust management of property of closed-end and interval mutual funds (mutual funds).
VAT on cross-border electronic commerce products will bring in more than 226 billion rubles. Other sources of revenue include changes in excise tax rates, which will provide 142 billion rubles, and adjustments to alcohol duties from unfriendly countries (30 billion). At the same time, non—tax revenues will also replenish the treasury: for example, a change in performance fee rates will bring in almost 150 billion, and the introduction of a technosystem will bring in over 36 billion.
The projected 3.6 trillion rubles is a significant amount for the budget. For example, this is almost twice the annual cost of healthcare, said Alexei Krylov, an expert on the financial market and investments at the CCI Council, a tax consultant. However, there is a risk that some companies may move into a gray area, for example, paying salaries in an envelope. An additional limitation remains an expensive loan: with a high key interest rate, borrowed funds are not available to all enterprises, which can also hinder their development, and hence tax revenues.
However, the receipts themselves are relatively stable, so there should be no sharp deviations from the plan, says Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy. However, the reaction of the business can reduce fees. For example, companies can review their dividend policy, and citizens can change their savings structure, he explained.
At the same time, the collection of excess profits for mining enterprises is one-time in nature, so it cannot be counted on as an annual source of income, added Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. During this three-year period, such a collection will help replenish the budget, but it is not expected to continue.
How to cover the budget deficit in Russia
The budget deficit in the next three years will amount to 5.1–5.5 trillion rubles annually. The planned changes will cover about a fifth of the shortfall, explained Dmitry Levin, project Manager at Gamma Group Management Company.
However, it is not the absolute size of the deficit that is important, but its share in relation to GDP, says Valeria Popova, senior analyst at the investment company Rikom-Trust.
— It is the ratio that makes it possible to assess the burden on the economy. If the deficit consistently exceeds about 3% of GDP, covering the shortfall requires significant resources that could be used to develop infrastructure, social programs, and other priorities. As a result, the government's ability to finance these areas is narrowing, and the long—term risks to fiscal sustainability are increasing," she said.
An excessively high budget deficit can increase pressure on prices, affect the ruble exchange rate and contribute to higher interest rates on loans and deposits, Valeria Popova continued. A significant shortfall also creates pro-inflationary risks, which may lead the Bank of Russia to be more cautious about lowering its key interest rate.
But in Russia, the shortage is expected to reach about 2% of GDP. Besides, it should decrease every year. As Alexey Zabotkin, deputy chairman of the regulator, said on October 12, the planned reduction in the structural deficit (an indicator cleared of commodity prices, interest on government debt and fluctuations in the economic cycle) in 2027 and its return to zero in 2029 is an important condition for easing monetary policy and lowering interest rates.
Dmitry Levin from Gamma Group believes that funds from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) may become one of the sources of financing the deficit. As of August 1, 2026, the fund's volume amounted to 12.72 trillion rubles, or 5.4% of GDP. However, the government is keen to keep them as a reserve in case of a sharp drop in commodity prices. In the draft federal budget for 2027-2029, the authorities did not provide for the use of the National Welfare Fund to finance the deficit.
Another possible source is dividends from state—owned companies, the expert noted. In 2025, the budget received more than 613 billion rubles of dividends from such enterprises through the Federal Property Management Agency, and taking into account Sberbank, the total receipts exceeded 1 trillion rubles. According to Dmitry Levin, despite the decline in profits of a number of state-owned companies, significant opportunities for dividend payments remain in the oil and gas and financial sectors.
As Valeria Popova noted, to cover the deficit, the state can attract additional funds through the placement of federal loan bonds (OFZ). This makes it possible to finance budget expenditures while maintaining the ability to gradually manage the debt burden. At the same time, the national debt, despite the expected annual growth, remains at a moderate level — about 18% of GDP. According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Russia's public debt is still one of the lowest among such obligations of the G20 countries, which leaves room for additional borrowing.
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