The balance of the whole: how to allocate almost 49 trillion from the treasury in 2027

The budget in 2027-2029 will be balanced: revenues will account for 43.3 trillion rubles, and expenditures — 48.8 trillion. On Wednesday, September 30, the government submitted a draft budget to the State Duma. The key priorities for the next three years will be fulfilling social obligations, strengthening defense capabilities, and technological development. More than 6.6 trillion rubles have been allocated for social policy in 2027, and 17.1 trillion for national defense. Almost 20 trillion rubles more will be allocated for pensions, allowances and other payments, according to the budget of the Social Fund. At the same time, budget revenues are expected to grow due to the unification of taxes. What will bring the most funds to the treasury is in the Izvestia material.

What will be the budget revenues in 2027-2029

The government submitted to the State Duma the draft federal budget for 2027-2029 on Wednesday, September 30. Treasury revenues in 2027 will amount to 43.3 trillion rubles and will grow to almost 48.6 trillion by the end of the three-year period. Expenditures for the next year are planned at 48.8 trillion rubles. Thus, the deficit will amount to 5.5 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP. In the future, it will decrease and amount to about 2% of GDP annually.

On the same day, President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the first meeting of the State Duma of the ninth convocation, stressed that the budget should be balanced and realistic. The Russian financial system and economy feel confident, but it is important not to make mistakes, the head of state added.

Budget revenues in 2027 will grow by almost 5.1% compared to estimates for this year, according to the financial plan. The main increase will be provided by non—oil and gas revenues - they will amount to about 36.3 trillion rubles.

Turnover taxes, such as VAT, excise taxes and duties, will become the largest source of income. Their revenues will grow by about 10%, to 23 trillion rubles compared to 2026. Fees on profits and income will increase by almost a quarter, to 6.5 trillion rubles.

In previous years, the authorities adjusted income tax, personal income tax and VAT, recalled Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Now the system has been improved and made more understandable: the progressive scale of taxation has been unified for different types of income. As a result, the labor and passive incomes of citizens will be accounted for according to a single principle.

We are talking about dividends, interest on deposits, transactions with securities and digital rights, the sale of property and shares, as well as income from insurance and donations. Next year, these receipts will be included in the main personal income tax base. Instead of rates of 13-15%, a scale from 13 to 22% will be applied to them. Thus, the amount of the rate will depend on the total income of the citizen, and not on its source.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the changes will affect no more than 6% of citizens with taxable incomes — about 4 million people. The privilege for small deposits, the amount of which does not exceed 1 million rubles, will remain. The amendments will also not apply to the income of its participants.

A 15% income tax on passive income will also be introduced for mutual funds. The amount paid by the fund will be taken into account when calculating the fee for its investors, so that the same income is not taxed twice. Currently, mutual funds do not pay income tax: the obligation arises when paying income to the owners of the units, which can be postponed for a long time.

According to the financial plan, oil and gas revenues will decrease to 7 trillion rubles in 2027, compared to 7.6 trillion in 2026. The authorities have embarked on a gradual reduction in the budget's dependence on raw materials revenues, despite a noticeable increase in the value of Urals after the outbreak of the military conflict between Iran and the United States in the Middle East in late February. In addition, the calculations for next year are based on the average price of Russian oil at $53 per barrel.

Where will the main budget expenditures be allocated in 2027

Compared to estimates for 2026, treasury expenditures have remained virtually unchanged. According to the financial plan, the largest amount of funds in 2027 will be allocated to national defense — 17.1 trillion rubles. As Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated earlier, the priorities of the budget for the next three years will be the fulfillment of social obligations, strengthening defense capabilities and economic development.

The second largest area of expenditure is social policy. In 2027, over 6.6 trillion rubles were allocated for it. A "children's budget" is provided to support fertility — 10 trillion rubles for three years, including a single allowance. Funds have also been allocated for the annual indexation of the maternity capital from February 1 and a family payment — the return of a portion of personal income tax to citizens with two or more children. About 1.9 trillion rubles will be allocated to improve the living conditions of families with children.

According to the draft budget, national projects will be actively supported. More than 2.8 trillion rubles will be allocated for the Family project in 2027, and over 8.2 trillion over three years. Almost 545 billion rubles will be allocated for the Youth and Children project, and 145.9 billion rubles for the Long and Active Life project.

Citizens' support is also provided for in the budget of the Social Fund. In 2027, more than 19.8 trillion rubles will be allocated for pensions, insurance benefits and other transfers through the SFR. Of these, almost 13.5 trillion will be used for payments to the elderly. Insurance pensions will be indexed twice: from February 1 — by 6.8%, based on the inflation rate for the previous year, and from April 1 they will additionally increase by 3.3%, taking into account the growth rate of wages. By the end of the year, the average old-age pension will be close to 30 thousand rubles. The cost of living will increase by 6.8% to 20,227 rubles.

Along with defense and social policy, one of the key priorities of the budget for the next three years will be technological development. Almost 2 trillion rubles are provided for the relevant national projects. Financing of the national projects "Means of production and automation" and "Unmanned aircraft systems" will grow to 136 billion and 103 billion rubles, respectively. Another $205 billion will be allocated for the recapitalization of the Industrial Development Fund, which provides preferential loans for the implementation of new programs.

How will the economy develop in 2027

The budget deficit for the next three years is relatively small — about 2% of GDP annually. This is not a critical value, and it practically does not create risks for the government to fulfill its obligations, explained Dmitry Morkovkin, a leading researcher at the Institute for International Economic Relations Research, Associate professor of Taxes and Tax Administration at the Faculty of Taxes, Audit and Business Analysis at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Especially if we compare this indicator with the level of public debt in other countries. For example, in the United States, the ratio of public debt to GDP is about 100-150%. In Russia, such values have never been and are not expected, he stressed.

The deficit remains manageable, independent economist Viktor Mangazeev agreed. According to him, there is no threat to macroeconomic stability. To cover it, it will be necessary either to use the accumulated funds, or to increase government borrowing, which is also still far from critical levels.

The main source of covering the deficit in the next three years will be domestic borrowing. So, in 2027, the amount of public debt will amount to more than 6.1 trillion instead of the previously projected 3.8 trillion.

According to the draft budget, total government obligations in 2027 will increase from 54 trillion to almost 68 trillion rubles. The possibilities of external financing are currently limited due to the geopolitical situation, explained Igor Yushkov from the National Energy Security Fund. Therefore, the main volume of borrowings falls on the domestic market.

At the same time, it is impossible to count on a constant increase in domestic borrowings in the long term. Each subsequent placement will become less effective, as an increasing part of the funds raised will be used to repay previously accumulated debt, the expert noted. However, when the budget goes into surplus, the growth rate of the national debt will slow down.

An additional source of deficit coverage is privatization, but revenues from it will be small — 3.1 billion in 2027, according to budget data. Major transactions, as before, will be carried out according to separate decisions of the president and the government.

The deficit itself does not prevent monetary policy from easing, but the Bank of Russia will take into account the way it is financed along with inflation, inflation expectations, demand dynamics, lending and the ruble exchange rate, said Viktor Mangazeev. If the volume of government borrowing increases significantly, this could potentially affect the liquidity of the banking system and the cost of raising funds for businesses. The scale of this effect will depend on the volume of OFZ placement and investor demand for these securities.