Terrible gray debt: how EU loans will turn out for the Moldovan economy
Moldova's path to European integration worsens the situation in the country's economy. Experts predict an increase in the cost of servicing loans from the EU and a further decline in agriculture. The republic's external debt has approached a record $12 billion, and the government warns of further rising electricity prices. At the same time, Chisinau hopes to join the European Union by the end of 2028, which in fact is unlikely. Moldova's integration process will be discussed on October 15 at the EU summit. The Transnistrian issue may become a stumbling block. And Russia will not allow a possible military scenario against the PMR, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
Economic costs of Moldova's European integration
The economic foundation is considered to be the main ticket to the European Union, but Moldova intends to break this stereotype. The candidate status was given to a country with chronic problems and critically low living standards, which makes integration more of a political project. Chisinau now expects to sign an agreement on joining the European Union by the end of 2028.
At the same time, the republic's external debt has reached a record $12 billion (about 57% of GDP). Of these, €4.36 billion are government loans, and €6.06 billion are private business loans. Interest payments on the national debt alone for eight months of this year cost €200 million, diverting resources from economic development, said political analyst Daniil Kochetov.
"In exchange for the Russophobic policy, the West put the republic on a "credit and grant needle," cynically calling it "help on the path of European integration," the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
At a meeting of the Moldova–EU Association Council on October 5, Brussels announced the allocation of the next tranche of €157 million to Chisinau. The payment is part of a three-year financial support plan for 2025-2027 with a total budget of €1.9 billion. At the same time, 1.5 billion euros of this amount are loans, which will have to be repaid by more than one generation of citizens.
— That is, under the slogan of assisting Chisinau in implementing reforms according to the "EES standards", Moldova is actually being consistently debt enslaved, — the Russian Foreign Ministry noted.
The growing debt burden is exacerbating the acute energy crisis, said Natalia Kharitonova, Chief Researcher at the Russian State University of Economics. After a series of increases, the gas tariff has reached €1.32 per 1 cubic meter, and new heating and gas bills (€178-268 per month) will become unaffordable for the population with an average regional salary slightly above €400. This impasse is due to the political decisions of Chisinau: the authorities ignore the purchase of cheap electricity from the Moldovan GRES, located in Transnistria and owned by the Russian company Inter RAO. Instead, the republic purchases electricity from Romania and Ukraine at high tariffs.
The crisis in the fuel and energy sector has paralyzed agriculture in Moldova. The main blow to the industry was caused by the rise in diesel prices to a record €1.76/liter. At these prices, processing 1 hectare of crops with machinery costs about €141, and one cycle of work per 200 hectares (an average farm can have such an area) requires €28.2 thousand. Without large-scale EU subsidies, Moldovan farmers face a shortage of funds. Under the conditions of free trade with the European Union, local agribusiness without state subsidies is losing competitiveness, losing to producers in France, Poland and Romania.
Economic problems result in a massive outflow of the population. From 2014 to 2024, Moldova "lost" 13.6% of its citizens. And the trend is not changing. If in August 2025 the population was about 2.4 million people, then on January 1, 2026 it decreased to 2.36 million. While officials are talking about European integration, able-bodied citizens are leaving for places where there are prospects, and the dependence of the budget on EU tranches makes any dispute with Brussels dangerous, concluded Kochetov.
What is the main problem of Moldova's European integration
The prospect of Moldova's accession will be discussed at the EU summit on October 15-16. There, European leaders will also consider reforming the union's enlargement process to speed up candidates' entry. On the eve of the EU and Chisinau launched substantive discussions on two new thematic blocks: "Internal market" and "Competitiveness and inclusive growth". These and other clusters determine the parameters for adapting national legislation to EU standards.
Taking into account the previously opened blocks "Fundamentals" and "External Relations", Chisinau is already conducting a dialogue in four out of six areas, ahead of the "Green Agenda" and the most sensitive sector "Resources, agriculture and cohesion policy". However, the key obstacle remains the unresolved conflict over Transnistria, the self-proclaimed republic. Neither Chisinau nor Brussels have yet decided how to correlate the timing of Moldova's rapprochement with the EU and the solution to the problem of the PMR, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.
— At the same time, there are assurances of commitment to a political and diplomatic settlement as the only possible way to resolve this problem. I would like to believe this, because otherwise the consequences for both banks of the Dniester River will be catastrophic. Russia, for its part, will continue to do everything necessary to prevent a negative scenario from developing. At the same time, as it has been repeatedly stressed, we are ready to respond adequately to any scenario," the diplomats noted.
Relations between Brussels and Chisinau are based on mutual manipulation, Kharitonova believes. According to her, the Moldovan authorities' position on Transnistria is fluctuating following relations with Moscow: in case of escalation, Chisinau demands EU membership together with the PMR, in case of detente — without it. Meanwhile, Kaya Kallas said on October 5 that the unresolved Transnistrian conflict would not become an obstacle to the republic's European future.
The situation with the PMR will not allow Moldova to become part of Romania, which is part of its strategic course, which Chisinau, of course, does not publicly announce, said Alexei Martynov, a political scientist and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to him, Europe can delay accession negotiations for decades, and behind the declarations on the EU lies the project of "Greater Romania", the implementation of which will lead to the elimination of Moldovan statehood.
For this purpose, a territorial reform is being carried out with the consolidation of 32 districts into three macroregions, which is "hindered" by another territory that does not agree with Chisinau's course — the Gagauz Autonomy. The elections of the Bashkan there, which will be held on November 15, will be a key stage: ex-Prosecutor General Alexander Stoyanoglo is the favorite of the race. Martynov believes that under the guise of an independent candidate, he can be used to consolidate territories and de facto quietly dismantle autonomy in order to centralize Chisinau's governance.
As for Transnistria, decisive actions from the authorities should be expected in 2027, the expert believes. Moldova can stage a provocation or even defrost the conflict with the support of Ukraine. According to the expert, residents will first be scared by the threat of war, and then they will offer a referendum on the abolition of the Transnistrian autonomy for the sake of territorial reform. After a possible merger with Romania, Moldova will actually join the EU and NATO, but will pay for it with the loss of its own statehood, he concluded.
The scenario of a military defrosting of the conflict in the PMR or the absorption of Moldova by Romania, contrary to the opinion of Tiraspol and Comrat, categorically does not suit Moscow. Any actions that pose a threat to the Russian military or Russian citizens in Transnistria (more than 220,000 people) will be considered an attack on Russia in accordance with international law.
These warnings are backed up by real steps: on May 15, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the simplified admission of Transnistrian residents to Russian citizenship. According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, the decision is overdue due to the blockade of the region by Chisinau and Kiev, and Russia is ready to use all legal means to ensure the safety of people in the PMR.
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