The Brussels carrot: Ukraine and Moldova are closer to integration into the European Union

Ukraine and Moldova are one step closer to the European Union. All the countries of the association agreed to open two new negotiation clusters for them — the "Internal Market" and "Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth". The most painful issues, however, remain ahead: the discussion of agriculture and the access of Ukrainian grain to the European market, the supply of which is already causing discontent not only in Poland, but also in Moldova. What obstacles stand in the way of Kiev and Chisinau and whether the EU is ready to accept new members — in the Izvestia article.

Four out of six

"I can confirm that all EU member states have agreed to open negotiation clusters two and three for Ukraine and Moldova," Thomas Byrne, Minister for European Affairs of the Irish Presidency of the Council of the European Union, said on the social network. The opening of clusters does not mean that the requirements of Brussels have already been fulfilled, it only launches negotiations during which Kiev and Chisinau will have to bring their legislation into line with EU standards.

The second cluster, the "Internal Market", covers the free movement of goods, workers, services, and capital. It also includes competition, financial services, consumer protection, corporate law, and intellectual property. The third cluster, Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth, includes digital transformation, taxation, economic policy, employment, industry, science, education, and the customs Union.

In total, the negotiation process is divided into six clusters. Prior to the current decision, Ukraine and Moldova had two open ones: "Fundamentals" — from June 15 and "External Relations" — from July 14.

Thus, two more clusters remain closed. "Green policy and sustainable Connectivity" covers ecology, energy and transport, while "Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion Policy" covers the agricultural sector, fisheries and regional development.

It is the negotiations on agriculture that can be the most difficult. Currently, trade between Ukraine and the EU is regulated by the updated free trade agreement. It provides for tariff quotas and protective measures for the most sensitive products. At the same time, Kiev is seeking to expand opportunities for agricultural exports, while Brussels is trying to protect the interests of its own producers.

Ukraine expected to open all six negotiation clusters in the summer. Its progress was slowed down by Hungary, which demanded additional guarantees of the educational and linguistic rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. At the same time, Budapest did not formally block Chisinau's entry, but other EU countries did not want to separate the two negotiating tracks.

Incomplete membership

The European Union is preparing to change the rules for the admission of "newcomers". Brussels is not very satisfied with the previous scheme, in which the candidate first fulfilled all the requirements and then received full membership. Instead, gradual integration is being discussed: access to the single market, European programs and institutions can be provided earlier, and the right to participate in decision—making later.

The reason was the accumulated disagreements and the scale of the upcoming expansion. Currently, nine countries are applying for membership, including Ukraine and Moldova. And the last time the EU accepted a new member was in 2013, when Croatia joined it. Since then, fears have grown within the association that new members will make it difficult to agree on solutions and bring with them additional disputes.

One of the options was the proposal of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Ukraine's associate membership. According to his plan, Kiev would receive representatives in EU structures and access to some European programs, but would not have the right to vote. In Ukraine, this initiative was met with little enthusiasm. Volodymyr Zelensky called this approach unfair and demanded full membership for the country.

However, so far the general discussion is moving in this direction. The European Commission proposes to admit candidates to certain areas of EU policy as reforms are implemented. Moreover, former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic supported this approach. "Give us open borders and a single market — that's all we need," he said.

At the same time, Brussels wants to protect itself from the emergence of new states capable of blocking common solutions. To do this, the EC proposes to negotiate interim agreements by a qualified majority, as well as to limit the financing or voting rights of new members if they deviate from their commitments. With this in mind, Ukraine's future membership in the EU can be considered rather conditional.

What the experts say

The most serious economic contradictions will manifest themselves at the opening of the fifth cluster dedicated to agriculture, according to political analyst Dmitry Kiseev. The main subject of the dispute will be quotas and conditions of access of Ukrainian products to the markets of the European Union and Moldova.

— Many people would like to keep quotas. Now production volumes have dropped due to the fighting, but this will not always be the case. Ukraine can simply shut down the market with its volumes. This is also important for Moldova, because local farmers are no longer dragging out the situation: taxes are high, and Ukrainian products are outpacing the market," the expert explained.

And in general, it will be difficult to coordinate the positions of the parties due to the discrepancy between their economic interests. It is easier to agree on political issues. But Hungary has some interests in the economy, Poland has others, and Ukraine and Moldova have their own. It will be extremely difficult to put them into one formula, the source stressed.

Another difficulty lies in the fact that Brussels is considering the applications of Kiev and Chisinau in conjunction, Natalia Eremina, a political scientist and professor at St. Petersburg State University, said in a conversation with Izvestia. In her opinion, the authorities of both countries need to constantly demonstrate progress towards the EU in order to maintain support for the chosen political course. At the same time, real problems, including corruption and the state of the judicial system, may remain unresolved.

— Who needs such poor economies and countries? In fact, the European Union needs them to fulfill its demands. They are holding the "carrot" of European integration in front of them, while they continue to move along this path and move away from Russia. It is important for Brussels that this process continues, and Ukraine and Moldova do not stop," the expert explained.

The opening of new clusters does not mean that the EU is ready to accept the two countries in the foreseeable future, said Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. In his opinion, this is primarily a political signal about preserving their European perspective. After the cessation of hostilities, Kiev's chances will increase, but full-fledged entry will still require lengthy preparations, the expert believes.

— Under the current conditions, no one will offer Ukraine to join. After a freeze or settlement, this possibility will increase, but not by much: the country will have to recover and simultaneously solve the problems of corruption, crime and demography. Therefore, Ukraine will not become a full member of the EU in the next ten years. But any kind of associate membership is quite possible," concluded the Izvestia interlocutor.