Bonds without a button: a record number of firms may default on bonds in 17 years
In 2026, more than 50 issuers may default on bonds, experts interviewed by Izvestia predict. This could become a record figure for 17 years and exceed the level of the crisis in 2014 and 2015, when dozens of companies also defaulted on bonds. The main reason is the prolonged period of high interest rates. At the same time, problems are still occurring mainly among small issuers, so analysts do not see a systemic risk to the market. How an investor should act in such a situation is described in the Izvestia article.
How many companies defaulted on their bonds in 2026
This year, the Russian bond market has faced a wave of non-payments. There are no uniform statistics on defaults, but rating agencies independently take into account cases when a company cannot pay a coupon to an investor or repay the principal debt on time. As reported to Izvestia in the NKR, by September, more than 500 default and technical default events had been recorded. This is considered a default in which the issuer has not fulfilled the obligation on time, but receives an additional 10 days for payment, for example due to technical reasons. If the obligation is not fulfilled after this period, the default becomes effective.
— However, taking into account repeated non-payments on several issues of the same borrower, the number of unique issuers is a more correct indicator. At least 30 companies have made delays since the beginning of the year," said Dmitry Orekhov, Managing Director of the NKR rating agency.
At the same time, for the first time, 20 companies went into technical default in 2026, and 17 of them eventually failed to pay their obligations, said Mikhail Nikonov, Director of Corporate Ratings at Expert RA agency. For comparison, for the first time in 2025, 24 organizations committed a technical default.
Among the issuers who have defaulted on bonds this year, mostly small companies are representatives of the high—yield bonds segment. They place securities at higher interest rates than blue chips, attracting investors with increased returns. In particular, the defaults were made by the factoring company Global Factoring Network Rus, the manufacturer and chain of household chemicals stores in bottling Chistaya Planeta and the Kuzina confectionery chain.
However, the problems have also affected larger players. So, the developer "Airplane" experienced a technical default on September 28: the company was able to transfer only a quarter of the nominal value of the bonds — about 670 million rubles out of 2.5 billion. Now the issuer has 10 days to repay the missing amount. Izvestia has sent inquiries to these organizations.
The main reason for non—payments on bonds is the prolonged period of high interest rates, which makes it difficult for companies to attract new debt financing. At the same time, the problems of a larger player, Eurotrans, which owns the Tracsa gas station network, became a separate factor. The company has actually defaulted on all bond issues totaling 27.1 billion rubles.
Law enforcement agencies are investigating a particularly large-scale embezzlement and fraud case against the company related to fuel for official vehicles of the Moscow police. The Chairman of the Board of Directors and three top managers of Eurotrans have been arrested and detained.
In terms of overdue payments, 2026 is also ahead of the previous one: 41 billion against 34 billion rubles in 2025, said Alexander Afonin, head of bond market analysis at Sinara Investment Bank. According to him, the share of defaulted securities in the total volume of the corporate bond market has almost doubled: if a year earlier it was 0.69%, then in August 2026 it reached 1.77%. At the same time, the absolute values remain relatively small, the expert noted.
Record level of defaults in Russia for 17 years
The number of bond defaults in Russia in 2026 has already reached its highest level in a decade, said Pavel Zhelobaev, Associate managing director of the NRA rating agency. Comparable figures were recorded in the mid-2010s. Then, against the background of the introduction of the first Western sanctions, a twofold drop in oil prices and a sharp weakening of the ruble, the Central Bank switched to a tight monetary policy and kept the key rate at a double-digit level until the beginning of 2017. For comparison, 35 companies defaulted on bonds in 2014, 52 in 2015, at the peak of the crisis, and 44 issuers defaulted in 2016.
By the end of 2026, the number of companies in the bond market that are unable to service ruble debt in a timely manner may reach 40-50. This will be the highest figure since 2010, Pavel Zhelobaev believes. Only 2009 was more difficult: then, against the background of the consequences of the global financial crisis, more than 100 issuers defaulted, and the total amount of problem debt reached almost 200 billion rubles.
"By the end of the year, the number of issuers with primary technical or full—fledged defaults may exceed 50, with about 20-30 companies at risk of finally defaulting," Dmitry Orekhov from the NKR confirmed the assessment.
A similar forecast was presented by Alexander Afonin, Head of Bond Market Analysis at Sinara Investment Bank. According to him, this year the number of issuers that have defaulted will be the highest in 17 years — since 2009. At the same time, the current situation differs from the 2008-2010 crisis in duration. Now it is "spread out" over time for a much longer period, until rates drop significantly and the economy begins to grow at a faster pace, he added.
However, since 2009, the bond market in Russia has grown significantly, so it is important to take into account not only the absolute number of problematic issuers, but also their share. According to ACRA's calculations, this figure was 2.8% in 2025. By the end of 2026, the agency allows for its growth, but does not expect it to exceed 5%. It is the level of 5% that can be considered the conditional limit of the "default wave," said Alexander Gushchin, senior director of the ACRA corporate ratings group.
Why do companies in Russia not pay on bonds en masse
The main reason for companies' problems with servicing bond debt is the long period of high interest rates, which has been going on since 2023. Organizations attract high-interest financing, but cannot refinance it on more favorable terms. This also has a negative impact on the growth rate of operating profits of companies, explained Ekaterina Sidorova, Managing Director and Head of the Foreign Exchange, Commodity and Debt Markets Department at SberCIB Investment Research.
At the same time, the situation does not yet have the character of a systemic debt crisis: defaults occur mainly among companies with low credit ratings and, as a rule, high debt burden, she added.
"For investors, this once again shows that high profitability in the segment is precisely a premium for real credit risk, and not just an additional benefit without significant consequences," said Nikita Borodanov, analyst at Finam Financial Group.
SberCIB Investment Research expects a gradual reduction in the key rate by the Bank of Russia: to 13.75% by the end of 2026 and 10% by the end of 2027. At the same time, economic activity will remain weak: the growth rate of real GDP is forecast to be about 0.5%. Therefore, the percentage coverage rates of companies will recover slowly.
All this suggests that the number of defaults will remain high in 2027, Ekaterina Sidorova concluded.
What should an investor do in case of default
If the issuer has not paid the coupon, but has not yet been declared bankrupt, the investor has two main options. The first is to sell securities, which usually lose significantly in value at this point. The second option is to keep them in your portfolio. In this case, it is important to take into account that, according to the law, the company has 10 working days — the period of technical default — to find funds and fulfill its obligations.
If default becomes actual, the issuer often offers investors a restructuring plan, for example, a delay in payments in exchange for increased interest. At this stage, the bondholder should regularly check corporate event reports on the Information Disclosure portal (e-disclosure) and monitor the convening of the general meeting of bondholders.
According to the law, a representative of the bondholders (PVO), a special institution created to collectively protect the holders of securities, must protect the interests of investors in court and negotiate with the debtor. Investors should participate in the votes of the PSA in order to instruct the PSA to file a claim for debt collection or, as a last resort, initiate bankruptcy proceedings.
If the Air Defense is inactive, investors can unite on their own — for example, through the Association of Bondholders (ABO) to hire lawyers and file a class action.
However, in practice, air defense systems are often affiliated with the issuers themselves, which can create a conflict of interest. Against the background of the growing number of problematic issues, at the end of August, the Central Bank published an advisory report on the reform of the institution of representatives of bondholders.
The regulator proposed to legally prohibit the appointment of an air defense if it is affiliated with the issuer or the person providing security for the bonds. In addition, the Central Bank plans to oblige debtors themselves to pay the costs of air defense to protect the interests of investors, including legal costs.
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