The percentage went down: the reduction in the key rate hit the incomes of Russians
Russians' salaries are rising, but their wallets hardly notice it. In the first quarter of 2026, the real disposable incomes of the population went into negative territory after a steady rise, according to the CMAKP report (Izvestia studied it). One of the reasons was the reduction in the key interest rate: after it, banks cut interest on deposits, and the usual increase to the family budget decreased. At the same time, money is being eaten up by rising prices and utility tariffs, expensive loans, and wages themselves are not rising as fast as before. Who felt the drawdown the most and what to expect in the second half of the year — in the Izvestia article.
Why don't deposits bring in more money?
Salaries of Russians in 2026 continue to grow - in April, the average accrued salary approached 110 thousand rubles, and adjusted for inflation increased by 5.1% per year, according to Rosstat data. In the July report, the CMACP attributed this to a shortage of workers, rapid salary increases in certain industries, and high payments to military personnel. Due to the shortage of staff, businesses are forced to raise remuneration, even if this worsens the financial situation of the companies themselves, the authors say.
But the money that people can freely spend is gone. In the first quarter, real disposable incomes of the population decreased by 1% after rising in the previous year, according to the same report. We are talking about the amount that remains after paying taxes, interest on loans and other mandatory payments, adjusted for price increases. One of the reasons for the CMACP is the decline in profits from financial assets, primarily from deposits.
Since the beginning of 2026, the Central Bank has reduced the key rate from 16 to 14.25%. After that, banks began to reduce interest on deposits. In response to a request from Izvestia, the Bank of Russia shared a link to the dynamics of rates. The average maximum percentage of deposits in the largest financial organizations at the end of March was 13.6% per annum, which is 1.7 percentage points less than at the beginning of the year, Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, calculated based on data from the regulator.
By the end of June, the maximum deposit yield dropped to about 12.8% compared to 15.1% in January, said Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. According to his calculations, the owner of a 1 million deposit may lose about 23 thousand per year after the changes. For those who are accustomed to consider such a profit as a regular addition to income, such a loss is already noticeable.
The fastest rates decreased for short deposits, for example, three-month deposits, explained Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. According to him, the banks reacted promptly to the easing of the Central Bank's policy. As a result, some depositors began to look for other options for savings, from the stock market to real estate.
The decline in revenues in the first quarter shows that the economy is cooling down after a period of rapid growth, said Oksana Skarednova, Adviser to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of JSC National Savings Bank. According to her, a slowdown in demand is necessary to contain inflation.
Why else are Russians' incomes falling?
Rising prices also weighed on Russians' real incomes at the beginning of the year. Inflation accelerated after the increase in the base VAT rate, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.
At the same time, wage growth began to slow down. According to Rosstat, in April, the average accrued salary increased by 11% year-on-year compared to 14.4% in March. Taking into account the price increase, the increase decreased from 8.1% to 5.1%. If the trend continues, household incomes will also grow more slowly, the expert believes.
Additional pressure on family budgets was exerted by the increase in utility tariffs and expensive loans, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. With previous or slowly growing earnings, people have to give banks more and more of their funds, so any unplanned expenses are more difficult to bear, explained Denis Astafyev from SharesPro.
Business income has also decreased. According to the HSE, in the first quarter of 2026, they decreased by 4.2% year-on-year in real terms, said Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets. Among the reasons, he named a chain of non-payments, including from large government customers, an increase in fiscal burden and general economic uncertainty.
The biggest decrease in income was felt by people for whom a significant part of the budget was interest on deposits, investments or their own business, Denis Astafyev noted. Elderly depositors are especially vulnerable: for them, a deposit often serves as an addition to their pension and a way to protect their savings, Igor Rastorguev added.
Workers in industries where demand is cooling, such as individual retail and service segments, are also at risk, he continued. It is also harder for those who do not have a financial cushion: it is more difficult for such people to cover the decline of one source of income at the expense of another.
What will happen to the salaries of the population next
The main consequence of lower incomes will be more cautious consumer behavior, says Denis Astafyev of SharesPro. People will be more likely to postpone large purchases, choose cheaper products, and save on unnecessary expenses such as travel, restaurants, and subscriptions.
On the one hand, such thrift helps to contain inflation: demand is not growing too fast, the expert noted. On the other hand, the reduction in spending is hitting retail, the service sector, and small businesses, which largely depend on customers' wallets. As a result, weak consumption may further slow down the economy, Denis Astafyev warned.
He does not expect a sharp drop in revenues in the second half of the year — rather, the indicator will stabilize. The CMACP holds the same opinion. It can be supported by a slowdown in inflation, the indexation of social benefits and a shortage of staff, due to which employers are not yet able to reduce salaries. However, there will be no quick recovery either: interest on deposits is decreasing (we can already talk about the end of the period of prohibitively high rates), mandatory expenses are rising, and salaries are not increasing as actively as a year earlier, the expert explained.
In the second half of the year, real incomes may remain at the level of 2025 or grow by only 0.1-0.5%, predicts Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. She estimates wage growth adjusted for inflation at 1-3% year-on-year. In her opinion, the increase in prices, the weakening of the ruble and a further reduction in deposit rates will restrain the indicator.
By the end of the year, the Ministry of Energy forecasts a slowdown in the growth of real disposable incomes to 0.8% (against 7.4% in 2025).
As a result, wage growth alone does not guarantee that people have more money. As long as interest rates on deposits decrease, loans and mandatory payments remain high, and prices continue to rise, the increase quickly dissolves into everyday expenses. Therefore, statistically Russians earn more, but they can freely manage a smaller part of their income.
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