Middle East delight: oil exports through Hormuz rose to 76% of pre-war levels
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to 76% of pre-war levels. This is stated in the "Euler" company's research. It was possible to increase supplies by transshipment of oil from ship to ship — from small tankers to large—tonnage ones - off the coasts of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. An increase in the throughput capacity of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to lower oil prices, which in turn will affect Russian revenues, experts explained. How the Persian Gulf countries restore exports — in the "Izvestia" material.
How much has the supply increased
""Total oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-18 amounted to 10.7 million barrels per day, which is the maximum weekly figure since the beginning of the conflict," according to a study by the analytical company "Euler", which was reviewed by Izvestia.
According to analysts, the volume of supplies has reached about 76% of the pre-war level. Due to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, exports were increased due to the transshipment of oil from ship to ship (STS, Ship-to-Ship). Smaller tankers or vessels, often with geolocation disabled, pick up oil from Persian Gulf ports and pass through the danger zone. Then they dock side by side with large-tonnage tankers and use special equipment to pump oil. After that, the supertankers set off on a long-haul flight, and the empty "shuttles" return for a new batch.
Of the 10.7 million barrels per day, 9.9 million were supplied using ship-to-ship transshipment near the coasts of the United Arab Emirates (7.6 million) and Oman (2.3 million). Only 0.8 million barrels per day were transported directly through the Strait of Hormuz: two tankers exported 280 thousand tons each, according to the "Euler" company.
At the same time, total exports of oil and condensate from the Persian Gulf countries, including supplies via other routes and pipelines, rose to 16.1 million barrels per day in a week. According to the company, only a third of this volume accounted for the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Supplies of raw materials from Saudi Arabia continued to decline amid the shutdown of the "East–West" pipeline and amounted to 1.5 million tons in September 12-18, analysts added. The oil pipeline was shut down on September 11 after drone attacks launched by Iraqi armed groups. The highway is used by Saudi Arabia to deliver oil to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. On September 22, the Reuters news agency reported, citing sources, that the pipeline had resumed operation at a reduced speed.
The situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the northwest of the Indian Ocean, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden in the Arabian Sea, also worsened in the summer. In July, the Yemeni Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and began attacking ships associated with the kingdom. According to official data, the strait is now open to navigation in most countries, but the situation remains tense.
In addition to transshipment from ship to ship, the countries of the region have used alternative routes — bypass pipelines through the territory of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, they began to use the reserves of raw materials already located at the terminals of the Red Sea and in Egypt. This allowed us to increase the total exports of oil and condensate from the region, despite the reduction in Saudi supplies," explained Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at "Alfa Capital" Management Company.
The increase in exports reflects the gradual normalization of the situation: shipping and insurance companies are gradually returning to the strait as risks decrease, the expert believes.
How export growth will affect Russia
Kirill Rodionov, an independent energy expert, explained that the timing of the full restoration of the transit of oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz depends primarily on political bargaining between the United States and Iran. On June 18, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for a temporary ceasefire and the end of the active phase of the military confrontation in the region. However, the fighting subsequently resumed.
The longer navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, the higher the financial losses of both sides, Kirill Rodionov added. For the United States, this is reflected in high prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, for Iran — in a reduction in revenue due to lower oil exports.
The expert believes that supplies from the Persian Gulf countries will continue to grow in the coming months, but their dynamics may change from week to week depending on the development of hostilities.
Dmitry Scriabin believes that a full recovery of exports to pre-war levels by the end of 2026 is unlikely, even if an amicable agreement is reached. Among the risk factors, he named naval mines and ammunition in shipping corridors, as well as the likelihood of a new escalation of the conflict.
A further increase in the capacity of Hormuz will gradually reduce oil prices, the expert added. At the same time, China also influences the global market balance, which can flexibly regulate the volume of imports and thereby influence prices. In addition, the limited amount of oil in the US strategic reserves is likely to encourage the country to increase purchases, which may also curb the decline in quotations.
The price of Brent crude oil futures exceeded $100 per barrel on September 9 after the Iranian military announced attacks on eight American tankers and two other US vessels in the Persian Gulf. On September 25, the price was $106 per barrel.
Kirill Rodionov explained that for the Russian Federation, the restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz would mean a gradual decrease in demand for our oil. Now, against the background of a shortage in the global market, Urals is trading at a high price. However, a gradual decline in Brent quotations will lead to a cheaper Urals, which in turn may affect the oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget.
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