The Persian approach: a meeting of the Russian Federation's dialogue with the Gulf countries will be held in October in Bahrain

The ninth ministerial meeting of the strategic dialogue between Russia and the Persian Gulf countries will be held in October in the capital of Bahrain. The Russian Foreign Ministry told "Izvestia" that preparations for the event are coming to an end, and the program for its holding is almost complete. At the meeting, it is planned to check the hours in detail on the international and regional agenda, with a focus on the situation in the Gulf itself. According to experts, among the priority topics will be the safety of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the stabilization of oil prices after the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, as well as the situation in Syria. At the same time, the Palestinian-Israeli settlement is likely to fade into the background.

When and where will the meeting of representatives of the Russian Federation and the GCC take place

The final preparations for the ninth ministerial meeting of the Russia–GCC strategic dialogue, which will be held in October in Manama, are coming to an end. According to "Izvestia" in the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the program of the meeting is almost ready, but the exact date will be announced later.

— During the meeting with the Arabian partners, we plan to conduct a thorough "reconciliation of the hours" on current international and regional issues, with a focus on the situation in the Persian Gulf. In the context of our efforts to de—escalate tensions as soon as possible, we will discuss specific measures of interaction with the member countries of the Cooperation Council. Including on the basis of the ideas embedded in the Russian concept of ensuring security in this strategically important area of the world," the diplomats noted.

The updated document was submitted in early June. It was prepared in the context of a sharp escalation in the Middle East due to the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as the protracted Palestinian—Israeli conflict. Since the situation in the region directly affects the global economy, energy, and maritime security, Moscow proposes to create a common security system with the participation of the Gulf states, the UN Security Council, and regional organizations.

Russia suggests that the countries of the region abandon threats, establish mechanisms to prevent military incidents and not use their territory to attack neighboring states. Separately, the concept refers to the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the fight against terrorism. In order to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the NPT, Russia suggests that the countries of the region take an important step: to completely transform the Middle East and North Africa into a zone free of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.

The Middle East and North Africa remain one of the hottest spots on the planet, and Russia plans to raise these issues during the High-level Week of the UN General Assembly in New York, where Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already arrived. As Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told "Izvestia", it is not only about the situation around Iran, but also about the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Yemen and Sudan. Moscow will certainly discuss all these issues both with its Iranian counterparts and with other partners in the region and beyond, including the monarchies of the Persian Gulf.

— We believe that for a lasting stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, it is necessary to develop a system of collective security in the region. The meetings in New York will provide an opportunity to assess the prospects for the implementation of this task, as well as to recall the relevant concept promoted by the Russian side," the diplomat added.

What can be discussed at the meeting

The new edition of our security concept is a document with a framework character, and its purpose is to fix the fundamental principles on which the Russian Federation proposes to build long—term international relations in the region, Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told "Izvestia".

According to the analyst, the concept is designed to make Moscow's position transparent and adequate in the eyes of the Arabian monarchs. In the context of the rapid rapprochement between Russia and Iran, it must demonstrate to the Gulf countries that the Russian Federation does not pose a threat to their security, but acts as a partner for mutually beneficial cooperation. The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf includes Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, the Emirates and Iran, which are currently in difficult relations due to the confrontation between Washington and Tehran, are both members of the BRICS.

The ninth ministerial meeting of the Russia–GCC strategic Dialogue is likely to focus on applied pragmatism. In the first place, the parties are working together to stabilize oil prices, especially after the UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ in May this year, Grigory Lukyanov believes. The parties are also interested in developing transport infrastructure that could link Russian production facilities with the markets of the Middle East and South Asia. The key place here is the interfacing of routes bypassing the zones of direct control of Western countries.

At the same time, the focus is on the situation around shipping through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Russia and the Gulf monarchies could discuss possible mechanisms for escorting civilian vessels in advance in order to subsequently check the clock with Iran and work out a formula that suits all participants, Ivan Bocharov, an orientalist and program manager at the INF, told "Izvestia". Moscow can act as a link and an additional channel of communication here, transmit signals and facilitate the negotiation process between Iran and the Gulf monarchies.

Tehran can probably meet them halfway in normalizing the navigation regime, but expects reciprocal steps in other areas, Bocharov said. Seeing no progress on issues where agreements had previously been reached with Washington, Iran is unlikely to be ready to simply give up its leverage, the analyst believes.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is receding into the background on the agenda of the Russia-GCC ministerial dialogue, giving way to more pressing issues. According to Ivan Bocharov, security in the Gulf itself, the situation around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and, possibly, Syria, where Moscow and the Arab monarchies have common ground, are now more important for the parties. In addition, the Gulf states do not have a unified position on Palestine and Hamas — a number of states have a negative attitude towards this movement. At the same time, despite the unresolved Palestinian issue, the trend towards normalization of relations between individual Arab capitals and Israel remains.