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- Double the rates: stricter conditions on family mortgages will affect up to 6 million families
Double the rates: stricter conditions on family mortgages will affect up to 6 million families
The family mortgage rate will almost double for about 6 million families. From October 1, for couples with one child under the age of seven, it will be raised to 12% in the capitals and up to 10% in the regions. Conditions under the program will improve only for families with four or more children. At the same time, only 18% of families in Russia have many children. As a result, some buyers will pay attention to the secondary housing market — prices there are significantly lower than in primary housing. This will accelerate the price increase for old apartments. Developers are waiting for a strong drop in demand for new buildings, which may result in delays in the delivery of facilities. What options are left for couples with one and two children to reduce the rate, see the "Izvestia" article.
How many families in Russia will lose their affordable mortgages
Starting from October 1, 2026, the conditions for a family mortgage will be linked to the number of children. In Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad regions, the rate will be 12% for families with one child, 10% for families with two, 8% for families with three, 6% for families with four, and 4% for families with five or more children. In other regions, rates will be 2 percentage points lower — from 10% for couples with one child to 2% for families with five or more children.
Thus, conditions will worsen for families with one and two children, and most of them. According to the 2021 census, there were 15.53 million households with minors in Russia, of which 13.8 million were with one or two children. There is no more up-to-date data on the exact number of families in terms of the number of children, so only approximate calculations can be made.
At the beginning of 2025, there were 29.75 million children under the age of 18 in Russia, of which 9.71 million were under the age of seven. That is, this age group accounted for 32.6% of all children. The probability that in a family with two children at least one will be under seven is even higher — it is about 55%.
As a result, the share of families with one or two children, where at least one child is under the age of seven, can be estimated at about 43.6%. If we apply this share to 13.8 million families, we get about 6 million. It is this group that will potentially be affected by the change in program conditions.
About 2 million Russian families have already used a family mortgage. At the same time, for a long time the program was available to couples with at least one child under the age of 18, and then the issues were more active. Therefore, it is impossible to determine exactly how many of these borrowers could use a family mortgage under current conditions (at a rate of 6% when the family has a child under six years old).
As a result, the actual deterioration in the parameters of the state program may affect not all 5.6 million potential borrowers, but about 2-4 million families, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
How much will the probability of family mortgage approval decrease
Currently, banks comply with the Central Bank's limits on issuing the most risky mortgages. Loans with a small down payment and to Russians with a high debt burden are particularly severely limited. The most comfortable situation for approval is when the borrower spends no more than half of his income on loan servicing and immediately contributes more than 20% of the cost of housing.
According to the new terms, the maximum loan amount will depend on the number of children. In the capital regions, families with one child will be able to receive up to 12 million rubles, with two — up to 15 million, with three or more — up to 18 million. In other regions of the Russian Federation, the limits will amount to 6 million, 8 million and 10 million rubles, respectively.
An additional limitation will be the validity period of the discounted rate. It was assumed that it would be retained only for the first 15 years of the loan, after which the percentage would be recalculated using the formula "key rate + 2 percentage points". In practice, because of this, banks would simply begin to approve family mortgages for a longer period less often. Then borrowers will have to repay the debt faster, which will further increase the monthly payment.
For example, for a family with one child from Samara, a loan of 6 million rubles at a rate of 10% for a period of 15 years will require a payment of about 64.5 thousand rubles per month. In order for it to take up no more than half of the income, the borrower needs to receive at least 129 thousand rubles. At the rate of 12% (for residents of the capitals), the payment will increase to about 72 thousand, and the required income will be up to 144 thousand rubles per month.
For most Russians, this is a high threshold. According to "Sberindex", in August, the median salary in Russia was about 66 thousand rubles — half of the employees receive less than this amount.
In the metropolitan regions, the increase in payments will be even more noticeable due to the higher loan limit, said Aigul Yusupova, founder and CEO of Unikey. For a family with one child on a loan of 12 million rubles, the starting monthly payment may increase by about 72% — from 72 thousand to 123 thousand rubles.
What ways do Russians still have to buy a house?
An increase in interest rates to 8-12% will significantly reduce the availability of mortgages and may lead to a new cooling of the new building market, said Natalia Bogomolova, senior director of NRA ratings of financial institutions. Sales in the mass segment may decrease by more than 15%. At the same time, according to "Dom.RF" on September 23, the weighted average rate on a market mortgage was 18.67%, so the family program will remain cheaper than the market, although the gap will narrow.
Even at the previous rate of 6%, new buildings remained inaccessible to many families due to the high cost of housing, Natalia Bogomolova added. The price per square meter actually eats up part of the benefits of a preferential loan. After the rate increase, this effect will become even more noticeable.
At 10-12%, the benefit of buying an expensive new building may not be so obvious compared to a market loan for cheaper ready-made housing, says economist Andrei Barkhota. Therefore, families who do not qualify for other preferential programs can actively consider the secondary market.
Russians still have other options to reduce the payment. It follows from the message of the Ministry of Finance that the preferential rate of 6% will remain for individual residential construction (IHS). The program can be used to purchase or build a private house.
""Starting from October 1, family mortgages provide for the possibility of reducing the rate at the birth of new children in accordance with the approved percentage "ladder", the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia. In addition, a preferential rate of 6% will be retained for mortgages with a down payment of 50% or more of the cost of housing.
As a result, the family mortgage will remain a relevant product for parents who are planning to have new children, and can also immediately pay for half of the apartment when applying for a mortgage.
Increasing the limits will also support individual large families, but this will not compensate for the decrease in demand from couples with one child, Aigul Yusupova believes. Developers will stimulate sales by installments and their own mortgage programs, but they do not plan to lower prices.
Demand is already responding to expensive mortgages: in off-peak months, sales of new buildings decrease by 7-12% year-on-year, Natalia Bogomolova noted. Price growth in the primary market has slowed sharply, while the secondary market is gradually coming to life. The supply of ready-made housing has decreased by 19% over the year, which may be a consequence of increased demand.
Due to the changes in the state program in October–November, the market for new buildings may shrink by 15-40%, says Natalia Gazetdinova, head of the mortgage lending department at "Granel" Group of Companies.
The situation may be especially difficult for small regional developers, where demand can sink more than in capitals and cities with millions, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. According to her estimates, the number of developer bankruptcies in small towns may continue to grow until the Central Bank's key rate drops to at least 12% per annum.
Against the background of sales problems, cases of postponement of the commissioning of houses are becoming more frequent, said "Finama" analyst Kristina Gudym. Developers are reviewing them, focusing on cooling demand and their own financial stability.
In addition, the quality of new buildings often raises questions among buyers, including in terms of sound insulation, decoration and arrangement of residential areas. Previously, some customers put up with these features, since preferential mortgages made the primary market the most affordable option. Starting in October, family mortgage rates will no longer be so much more profitable than market rates, so the choice of buyers when purchasing housing will no longer definitely shift towards new buildings.
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