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The client is unavailable: developers expect a collapse in demand for new buildings by the end of the year
Demand for new buildings may significantly decrease at the end of the year, experts interviewed by "Izvestia" predict. In July, disbursements under government support programs had already collapsed by 41% compared to 2025, and developers expect the trend to continue. The reasons are that banks are tightening requirements for borrowers, and prices for new buildings are rising. At the same time, market rates are still very high — 17.8%. As a result, by the end of the year, the demand for primary may fall by another 10-20%. When housing becomes more affordable — in the "Izvestia" material.
Why is the demand for apartments in new buildings falling
By the end of the year, the primary housing market may lose up to 20% of its current level, market participants surveyed by "Izvestia" believe. In "Tavrida Development" they expect a reduction of 10-20%, and in some mass projects the drop may be stronger, said Elena Kabesheva, Deputy General Director for commercial activities of the company.
For example, the situation will be difficult in regions with low incomes, says Rustam Khamdamov, Sales Director of "Talan" company. According to Tatyana Reshetnikova, deputy head of the mortgage department at the federal company "Floors", the market as a whole may lose up to 15% more demand by the end of the year. But Valery Tumin, director of "Pham Properties" markets in Russia and the CIS, calls such estimates even too optimistic. The real drop will be near 20% or even higher, the expert says.
The decrease in demand is already noticeable. According to the Umbrella Consulting Group, new home sales decreased by more than 30% in January-June, and by another 7.6% in July.
One of the main reasons is expensive apartments. Prices for new buildings continue to rise — the average price is 1 sq. m. The rent in such apartments in the second quarter of 2026 almost reached 222 thousand rubles, according to the Central Bank. It has increased by 8% over the year.
Against this background, housing affordability has fallen in many large cities and regions, "Izvestia" wrote earlier. For example, in the second quarter of 2026, a Muscovite had to pay 2.52 of the average salary for 1 meter in a new building, although 2.32 was enough a year ago.
Loan rates also affect accessibility. According to market mortgages, they now amount to about 18%, which makes the monthly payment unaffordable for many families, said Elena Kabesheva, Deputy General Director for Commercial Activities at "Tavrida Development" Group.
A primary mortgage can also be taken out at a discounted rate, for example, when applying for a family mortgage. However, in July, the issuance of state programs also dropped. According to the Central Bank, they decreased by 41% compared to the previous year, to 188.2 billion rubles. First of all, the reason is that demand has already been realized in many ways after a massive increase in loans in June: many expected tougher conditions on a family mortgage and were in a hurry to get it at the old rates. According to the new rules, which were planned to be introduced on July 1, the rate was supposed to vary depending on the number of children and reach 12%. But later the renegotiation was postponed to October 1, and the market began to decline.
An additional limitation is the policy of banks. Credit organizations have begun to more closely check borrowers' incomes and the amount of the initial payment, so it becomes more difficult for buyers with small savings to get a loan, experts explained. As a result, some of the demand goes to cheaper housing formats or is postponed.
At the same time, the buyer has become more selective. People now focus not only on the size of the bid, but also compare the initial payment, the final cost of the apartment, the monthly payment and the construction period, said Vladimir Shchekin, co-founder and co-owner of "Rodina" group. As long as credit remains expensive, there will be no sharp recovery in sales, he is confident.
How developers attract customers
One of the main tools that developers are trying to retain buyers has become installments — the ability to pay for an apartment in installments according to an agreed schedule, said Denis Zhalnin, CEO of the development company "People". Developers also use subsidized rates, when the developer compensates for part of the mortgage interest, trade-in — the exchange of existing housing for a new apartment with its value offset in the transaction, deferred payments and a tranche mortgage, in which the bank transfers money to the developer in several installments as construction progresses or certain conditions are met.
However, these products cannot completely replace mass mortgages. As a rule, to arrange an installment plan, the buyer has to have more of his own funds — the initial payment under some installment schemes should be 30-50% of the cost of the apartment, said Anton Nikitin, founder and CEO of "Fingold". This makes such a product available primarily to families with savings.
Other tools, which are often used in combination, do help reduce the initial burden on the buyer, but they do not eliminate the problem of high loan costs and apartments on the primary market, Denis Zhalnin explained.
More targeted government support can help the market. Among the possible mechanisms, Elena Kabesheva names assistance with a down payment, housing certificates and long-term savings programs. According to her, this model will allow us to support buyers who really need help, without replacing the entire market with a preferential mortgage.
What will happen to the new building market next
Demand dynamics may turn out to be uneven in the coming months. Before changing the terms of the family mortgage, buyers are able to enter the market more actively in order to complete the transaction on the same terms. A similar surge was already observed in June, said Vladislav Fadeev, an analyst at Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting.
However, according to Valeria Popova, senior analyst at "Rikom-Trust", after a possible surge in September, demand will begin to adjust.
Moreover, it is not worth waiting for cheaper housing against this background. Companies would rather use discounts, installments and other special conditions than drastically reduce apartment prices, Anton Nikitin believes. They will also be held back by the cost of construction. The costs of materials, labor and project financing are growing, so the possibilities of developers to directly reduce the cost of apartments in the primary market are limited, said Vladimir Shchekin.
A decrease in demand may also lead to a reduction in the number of new launches and increased competition between projects. As a result, developers will strive primarily to support sales in already launched facilities, believes Kirill Agapov, CEO and Managing Partner of Umbrella Consulting Group.
The timing of market recovery will ultimately depend on the cost of a bank mortgage. A wider audience of buyers will be able to return to the market at rates of about 12-13%, says Rustam Khamdamov, Sales Director of "Talan" company. With a further decrease in the key market mortgage, Anastasia Gorbun, Sales Director of the "Airplane" group, is confident that it will even be able to take the place of the main source of demand.
In the meantime, a significant part of the demand for new buildings will still be determined by preferential programs. The future trajectory will largely depend on the new family mortgage rules, which are due to be introduced on October 1. If conditions turn out to be too harsh, the market, according to experts, expects a significant decline.
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