Deadlock and even dumber: the UN cannot elect a new Secretary General
The closed voting for the new UN Secretary General has reached an impasse due to the high anti-ratings of the candidates. ""To avoid problems before the expiration of Antonio Guterres' term, coordination is needed within the "five" of the Security Council, which does not exist," the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. At the same time, experts are confident that among the seven applicants there are none who would suit all permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Closed voting in the UN Security Council
The struggle for the post of UN Secretary General has encountered obstacles. Since the summer, the Security Council has been holding closed trial votes. The procedures are devoid of legal force, but they show real support for candidates. Currently, no candidate can get at least nine out of 15 votes in the absence of a veto from the permanent members of the "five" (Russia, USA, China, Great Britain and France). Despite the fact that they vote in secret, the media regularly publish leaks of the results.
— According to them (voting results. It is clearly visible: while the members of the Security Council are unable to find consensus on one or another candidate, all applicants have a fairly high anti—rating," Alexander Alimov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told "Izvestia".
For example, at the end of July, Rebecca Greenspan, Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and former Vice President of Costa Rica, became the favorite of the closed polls. In August, Carolyn Rodriguez-Birkett, Permanent Representative of Guyana to the United Nations, took over the leadership, but in September Greenspan again took the lead. Seven candidates are currently competing for the post. In addition to the leaders of the race, the list includes IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, former Foreign Minister and Defense Minister of Ecuador Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Ambassador of Ecuador to the United States Yvonne A-Baki, former President of Senegal Macky Sall and former Foreign Minister of Uganda Olara Otunnu.
By the way, the list is decreasing — previously there were nine candidates. Virginia Gamba, the former special representative of the UN Secretary General for Children and Armed Conflict, withdrew in the spring. The most striking event was the September withdrawal of former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet from the race. According to Alimov, weak candidates who are unable to gather enough votes in their favor have already "staggered."
— In general, there is a need for close coordination on this issue between the Council members, primarily the members of the "five". Guterres' term of office expires on December 31, 2026. And we would like to avoid a dead end in every possible way. I am sure that we will manage," the Deputy minister stressed.
Who is for whom in the UN Security Council
The agreement of all five permanent members of the Security Council is perhaps the most difficult part of this difficult process. During the election of the Secretary General, candidates invariably face high anti–rating, since the outcome of the vote is always decided by behind-the-scenes agreements, says Viktor Kheifets, professor at St. Petersburg State University, member of the BRICS-Russia Expert Council. According to him, the candidacy will not go beyond the Security Council until the permanent members of the "five" come to an agreement. Bachelet's case clearly proves this. According to Heifetz, the United States and China could oppose the candidacy of the ex-president of Chile, despite mutual disagreements.
Former President of Chile Veronica Michelle Bachelet Heria
Bachelet's past work as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in 2018-2022 created an insurmountable anti-rating for her in both countries. Washington primarily blamed the UN's chief human rights defender for being too soft on Beijing. For example, in 2022, Bachelet visited the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of China. In the United States, this visit was called a propaganda show by Beijing and accused the official of deliberately delaying the publication of a critical UN report on the situation of the Uighurs.
Beijing, however, also considered Bachelet a hostile figure — despite China's attempts to smooth over the corners during her visit, the UN nevertheless published a final report on the Xinjiang region. The document described the actions of the Chinese authorities against the Uighurs and other Muslim minorities as possible "crimes against humanity." China has categorically rejected the report, calling it "fabricated by Western forces."
According to Heifetz, Greenspan's position is also vulnerable. The analyst is personally acquainted with the candidate, invited her to an event in St. Petersburg, where representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry held informal talks with her in the St. Petersburg State University building. However, Greenspan represents Costa Rica, a small country with traditionally good relations with the United States and protracted disputes with Nicaragua, Russia's partner in the region. In addition, in 2014, Costa Rica, contrary to the position of most Latin American countries, supported the UNGA resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, which Moscow regards as anti-Russian.
Guyana, as Kheifets added, has historically had strong relations with the Russian Federation since the Soviet era, when the country's official delegations regularly attended the congresses of the Central Committee of the CPSU. At the same time, Georgetown is developing a partnership with Washington. For example, Guyana joined the "Shield of the Americas" regional anti-drug initiative launched by Donald Trump, which is informally called the Latin American NATO. Nevertheless, the figure of Rodriguez-Birkett may cause controversy in the United States because of her public support for Fidel Castro.
According to Heifetz, the members of the Security Council are preparing for tough backstage bargaining, since any veto will block the candidate's promotion.
Who could Russia support
The Russian Federation, like other permanent members of the UN Security Council, does not disclose its preferences, Alexander Alimov noted. But Moscow would probably have been loyal to the candidacy of Rafael Grossi. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president's press secretary, said in April that Moscow knows him "from a very good side." However, none of the candidates, including Grossi, demonstrates a friendly attitude towards Russia, draws the attention of former UN Deputy Secretary General Sergei Ordzhonikidze.
First of all, it is important for Moscow to prevent the approval of an openly anti-Russian head of the organization. Nevertheless, Ordzhonikidze considers Grossi's enormous administrative and bureaucratic experience, which he has accumulated over the years of leadership of the IAEA, to be his main advantage. By the way, he may visit Russia again before the end of 2026.
International Atomic Energy Agency Conference
Kheifets, on the other hand, believes that Grossi is unprofitable for the Russian Federation, since throughout the conflict he has never called a spade a spade in the issue of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on the Zaporizhia NPP. The analyst also noted Grossi's dual role in the situation around Iran's nuclear facilities: Tehran openly suspected the IAEA inspectors of passing classified information to Washington, which subsequently launched missile strikes against these complexes.
The future Secretary General must be an effective administrator, possess appropriate competence, and have extensive diplomatic experience, Alimov emphasizes. The Russian side expects Guterres' successor to restore conditions for a "healthy" intergovernmental dialogue, in particular, to improve work on the Ukrainian issue.
— There is a need for a fundamental rethink of the UN's work on the Ukrainian track. We hope that the future Secretary General will be aware of the imperative to eliminate the root causes of the crisis," the Deputy minister concluded.
Russia can at least block any "Western" favorite who advocates a tough pro-Ukrainian position. For the organization itself, the current impasse may create a crisis of legitimacy for the new Secretary General. However, there is time. And history has never known a case where the Security Council has completely disrupted an election.
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