Secret exodus: the list of candidates for the UN Secretary General may expand

Russia is allowing the emergence of new candidates for the post of UN Secretary General, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. There are currently seven contenders in the race, but the first round of preliminary voting did not reveal a clear favorite. At the same time, even the leader in the number of votes may drop out due to the position of one of the permanent members of the Security Council, so it is almost impossible to predict the winner in advance, experts say. Nevertheless, the struggle is centered around several figures: according to the unspoken principle of regional rotation, representatives of Latin America and the Caribbean have the advantage.

The list for the post of Secretary General has not yet been closed

The UN Security Council has begun the preliminary selection of a new Secretary General. The first round took place on July 30, the next one is expected in mid-August, and the whole procedure may last until the beginning of October. At the same time, the circle of applicants is not yet final.

— The list is not closed yet. At the last moment, we had a seventh candidate, the representative of Uganda. We do not rule out that there will be more candidates, depending on the dynamics of the indicative vote that will continue in the UN Security Council," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.

Photo: Global Look Prerss/Wu Xiaoling/XinHua

A total of seven candidates have been registered. In addition to former Ugandan Foreign Minister Olara Otunnu, Rebecca Greenspan, head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Carolyn Rodriguez-Birkett, Permanent Representative of Guyana to the United Nations, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian President Maria Fernanda Espinosa and former Senegalese President Macky Salle are running for the post.

The first round did not identify a candidate around whom there would be a clear consensus. Officially, the results of the closed voting are not published, but they got into the media, which, however, violates the accepted procedure, Alimov stressed.

Greenspan remains the leader, having received 10 out of 15 votes. Her advantage is her work experience in government and international structures, including the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the United Nations Development Program and the Ibero-American secretariat. Managerial skills can play in her favor and prove to be in demand in the context of cost cuts and the upcoming reform of the UN staff.

Candidate for the post of UN Secretary General Rebecca Greenspan

Photo: TASS/Denis Akishev

However, the current result does not guarantee victory. One member of the Security Council voted against Greenspan, four more abstained, the press reported, citing diplomatic sources. Carolyn Rodriguez-Birkett also showed a high result — she was supported by nine members of the Security Council. Due to her less involvement in public policy, she did not have time to gain influential opponents among the major powers. This makes her a compromise figure if it is not possible to reach an agreement on other candidates.

Rafael Grossi took the third place with seven votes. Among the candidates, he has the most notable experience in dealing with international crises, from the situation around the Zaporizhia NPP to the Iranian nuclear program. However, the IAEA's activities have been repeatedly criticized, and some countries in the Global South perceive it as a pro-Western candidate.

Fifth or not: the Russian Federation has not decided on the support of the candidate for the post of UN Secretary General

Will the new faces in this race affect the positions of the main contenders?

Why the winner is difficult to predict

It is almost impossible to predict the winner at the current stage, according to former UN Deputy Secretary General Sergei Ordzhonikidze. According to him, during the previous elections of the head of the organization, situations repeatedly arose when the main contenders did not receive the necessary support and the permanent members of the Security Council had to look for a new compromise figure.

As an example, he cited the seventh UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, whose deputy he previously served. According to Ordzhonikidze, his candidacy appeared after other applicants failed to qualify. A similar scenario is possible now, since it is extremely rare for one candidate to satisfy all five permanent members of the Security Council from the very beginning.

Commemoration of former United Nations Secretary of State Kofi Annan

Photo: TASS/SALVATORE DI NOLFI

At the same time, the informal principle of regional rotation remains an additional factor in the current race. It is not legally fixed anywhere, but according to established practice, representatives of different geographical groups receive the post of Secretary General in turn. After Asian Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the representative of Western Europe, Antonio Guterres, the turn of Latin America and the Caribbean is coming.

Five of the seven current contenders belong to this region: Rebecca Greenspan from Costa Rica, Carolyn Rodriguez-Birkett from Guyana, Rafael Grossi from Argentina, Michelle Bachelet from Chile and Maria Fernanda Espinosa from Ecuador. However, regional affiliation does not promise victory. Ordzhonikidze noted that if no Latin American candidate satisfies all permanent members of the Security Council, they can agree on a compromise figure from another region.

The veto on the UN vote is more important than the number of votes

The voting is arranged so that at the early stages all 15 members of the Security Council receive the same ballots and choose one of three options: "support", "do not support" or "no opinion". The participants see the total number of positive and negative votes, but they do not know if the objections come from a permanent member with the right of veto.

We got up and left: the United States staged a demarche against France at the UN Security Council

The diplomatic row between Washington and Paris has become the culmination of a protracted conflict between the allies.

Later, the Security Council may proceed to preliminary voting with colored ballots, which allow us to see the position of the five permanent members separately. It is unclear exactly when this will happen. After a consensus is formed in the Security Council around one figure, a formal vote is already being held: at least nine votes and the absence of a veto from Russia, the United States, China, Great Britain and France are required to recommend a candidate. The candidate is then referred to the General Assembly.

Photo: Global Look Prerss/Li Rui/XinHua

As a result, a candidate may receive the support of the overwhelming majority of the Security Council, but drop out of the race due to the vote of one permanent member. Conversely, a candidate who is initially inferior to the leaders is able to win if he turns out to be the only figure who does not raise fundamental objections from any of the "five" countries.

Moscow has not yet named a preferred candidate, but outlined the main requirements for the future UN Secretary General. He must strictly follow the organization's Charter, remain neutral, and respect the powers of the Security Council. When choosing, Russia will take into account the applicants' experience, their programs and positions on key international issues.

The choice made will determine whether the organization can overcome the protracted crisis it finds itself in. Today, the structure is paralyzed due to the political split between the key powers and the acute budget deficit. The new head will have to regain the trust of donors and restore the working atmosphere in the Security Council.