Surrounded and broken: when the Volchansky cauldron is eliminated
The Volchansk pocket, which has been hit by units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, can be eliminated within a few weeks, military experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe. Since the beginning of the month, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, the enemy has lost 675 soldiers inside the ring. Due to supply problems and the inability to evacuate the wounded, the situation of the encircled is rapidly deteriorating. Experts are sure that they no longer have any chance of breaking through to the main forces.
The Wolf Trap
During the week, the units of the "North" grouping in the Kharkiv region continued to compress the inner and expand the outer ring of encirclement in the Volchansk area, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Russian troops also took control of Olkhovatka, in the area of which, according to the military department, there are surrounded units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, the Ministry of Defense announced the establishment of control over the settlements of Chernyakov, Shirokoe, Shevchenkovo and Malaya Volchya. According to the ministry, on September 18, since the beginning of the month, the enemy has lost over 675 soldiers in this area, including up to 25 in the last 24 hours.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces units surrounded in the area of Volchansk and Olkhovatka can be defeated within one to two weeks, military expert Vasily Dandykin believes. Military historian Mikhail Polikarpov admits that the resistance will last longer.
"This could happen by the middle of October," he told Izvestia.
Military expert Boris Rozhin recalled that the liquidation of a similar environment in the Kursk region took about two months.
"Our troops will press from several directions, gradually cutting off individual sections from the boiler,— he explained.
According to the expert, the fighting may last until the end of October, although they may end earlier. Much, he said, will depend on how quickly the defenders run out of resources.
One way or another, the agony of the enemy group, surrounded in the Volchansk pocket and in the Olkhovatka area, is already beginning, Vasily Dandykin believes.
"No one has managed to escape from the Volchan cauldron,— he noted. — Attempts are continuing, but these are rather gestures of desperation. The territory of the cauldron is completely controlled by our drones and shot through by artillery. In such a situation, it is not only impossible to concentrate forces for a strong blow, but it is almost impossible to move with impunity. Our troops are successfully destroying individual encirclement groups.
The last such combat episode was reported in the Russian military department on September 18. Two enemy assault groups attempted to break out of the encirclement in the area of the village of Chernoe in the direction of the settlement of Sileznevo, but suffered losses and were driven back into the pocket by our units.
The villagers are slaughtering the last chickens
The situation of the encircled AFU group is getting worse every day. Attempts to establish uninterrupted supply by air using cargo drones of the "Baba Yaga" type have not been successful - they are being destroyed by our fighters. The enemy is experiencing an acute shortage of ammunition, food and medicines, Vasily Dandykin noted.
The encirclement forces have to look for supplies from local residents in the cellars, catch abandoned poultry and livestock, but in such conditions it is impossible to maintain the combat capability of the units for a long time, and, consequently, to continue organized resistance, the expert explained.
Another serious problem is the inability to replenish losses and evacuate the wounded, military historian Mikhail Polikarpov told "Izvestia".
—Baba Yaga can't steal them." Inside the boiler, they cannot receive qualified medical care, and this should be the most difficult factor," the expert noted.
In his opinion, the inability to help the wounded always leads to a drop in morale. He also recalled the situation in Mariupol in 2022, when the Ukrainian garrison surrendered, and one of the factors of this was problems with medical care.
— You see only losses around you. And the realization that there is no help to come from, and the chances of staying alive are getting smaller and smaller every hour, rapidly worsens the morale of those who are surrounded. It is impossible to fight effectively with such a doomed attitude. Even combat stimulating devices that are supplied by the West to Ukraine for testing on personnel will not help," Vasily Dandykin summed up.
According to Mikhail Polikarpov, one of the factors preventing the surrender of militants may be the actions of units acting as protective detachments. According to him, they are using drones against military personnel leaving their positions.
The inexorable countdown
On September 7, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the blocking of the AFU group in the Volchansk area of the Kharkiv region. According to the military department, about 1,700 people got into the ring.
Four days later, the military department announced the formation of another encirclement in the Olkhovatka area. Two Ukrainian battalions were cut off from the main forces there.
Russian troops are now making progress in other areas as well. In particular, the White Well has been liberated in the Dobropolsky direction, which makes it possible to start further progress, said Boris Rozhin. Russian Armed Forces units are also exerting pressure in Orekhovo. Heavy fighting is taking place in the area of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, but nevertheless there is progress.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
