Alternative Germany: surveillance by special services has intensified for AFD
The special services of the Federal Republic of Germany have intensified surveillance of members of the Alternative for Germany (AFD) on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the party told Izvestia. They note that counterintelligence is infiltrating informants, and a media campaign is constantly underway to denigrate the AFD. According to opinion polls, the Alternative is more than twice ahead of the ruling CDU and has a real chance of forming a land government for the first time in history. In these circumstances, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is trying to intimidate German voters with the threat of economic collapse and investor flight if the AFD wins.
The situation before the vote in Germany
Saxony-Anhalt is actively preparing for local elections, which will be held on September 6. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is firmly in the lead in the region: according to recent polls, 40-42% of voters support it. At the same time, the CDU party of the current Prime Minister Sven Schulze is seriously lagging behind and takes only second place (22-23%).
The rest of the political forces show much more modest figures: 11-13% are ready to vote for the "Left", 8-9% for the SPD, and the Greens with 5-6% are teetering on the verge of entering parliament. At the same time, the Sarah Wagenknecht Union and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) have not yet overcome the five percent barrier and risk being left without mandates altogether.
The outcome of the vote is perceived in the local press as a rehearsal for future political changes throughout the country: if the AFD manages to consolidate leadership, Germany will for the first time face a situation where a party that is considered "non-handshaking" will have a real opportunity to claim executive power in one of the federal states. The leader of the party's land branch, Ulrich Sigmund, became the symbol of the media campaign against the AFD. On August 14, he was featured on the cover of Der Spiegel magazine, calling him the most dangerous man in Germany.
The AFD is supported by about 28% of voters in the country, which is more than other political forces. The growing popularity of the party is accompanied by increased pressure from the security services, according to the AFD.
"Domestic intelligence services operating under the leadership of the government are increasingly being used as political tools for surveillance, fighting and publicly discrediting Alternative for Germany," Bundestag deputy Stefan Cotre told Izvestia.
Back in 2023, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution of Germany recognized the AFD branch in Saxony-Anhalt as right-wing extremist, which allowed Berlin to expand its arsenal of surveillance tools in the region. According to Stefan Kotre, the ruling parties seek to maintain their own political hegemony, preventing full-fledged competition with a force that openly criticizes Berlin's migration, energy and economic policies.
— There is a constant campaign in the media to denigrate the party, counterintelligence introduces informants and publishes fake reports. Several candidates were not allowed to run for the posts of mayors and district heads, and three people were excluded altogether without explanation," Evgeny Schmidt, an ex—member of the Bundestag from the AFD, told Izvestia.
The German authorities, for their part, explain the screening of candidates by the need to comply with the basic law and emphasize that the activities of the constitutional protection bodies are aimed at countering extremism, and not at combating political competitors.
Friedrich Merz's statements, made on August 30 in an interview with ARD TV channel, added additional urgency to the campaign. The Chancellor warned that the AFD's rise to power could negatively affect the investment attractiveness of Saxony-Anhalt and scare away international business.
According to Evgeny Schmidt, about 43% of the votes can allow the party to count on forming its own government. Even if this result turns out to be unattainable, the first place in itself will be a powerful political signal: the traditional strategy of complete isolation of the AfD will face a serious test.
Why do they support the AfD in the east of Germany
The reasons for the growth of AfD lie much deeper than a single election campaign. Saxony-Anhalt is one of the most vulnerable regions of the former GDR, where the effects of deindustrialization, demographic decline and the continuing economic gap between east and west Germany are particularly acute. Since the unification of the country on October 3, 1990, the population of the federal state has decreased from 2.87 million to 2.12 million people — by almost 754 thousand inhabitants, or 26%. At the same time, in Germany as a whole, over the same period, the population, on the contrary, increased.
The massive outflow of young people to western lands, the aging of the population and the closure of large industrial enterprises led to a chronic shortage of qualified personnel and a weakening of the economic base of the region. According to Industry Insights EU, today there are only three companies in Saxony-Anhalt with an annual turnover of over €1 billion, which clearly demonstrates the scale of structural changes.
The consequences of this crisis are most acutely felt in the energy sector and industry. After abandoning Russian energy sources, Germany faced a sharp increase in the cost of industrial energy: in 2025, enterprises paid an average of 20-22 euro cents per 1 kWh, which is almost twice the pre-crisis level. At the same time, the country's economy has been teetering on the brink of stagnation for the second year in a row, and the number of unemployed has exceeded 3 million.
For residents of Saxony-Anhalt, these problems are particularly painful. High electricity prices, declining industrial competitiveness, rising living costs and unresolved migration issues became key topics of the election campaign. As a result, voting for the AFD for many East Germans turned not so much into an ideological choice as into a form of protest against Berlin's political course, which, in their opinion, could not provide the region with sustainable economic development and the previous level of well-being, said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
The rapid growth of the AFD's popularity is primarily due to the crisis of trust in traditional parties, and not solely to the successes of the right-wing themselves, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Political expert Christoph Herstel notes: the ruling coalition has not proposed a convincing strategy to bring Germany out of the economic downturn, while the abandonment of Russian energy resources, the growth of bureaucracy, the high cost of living and unresolved migration problems have only increased public discontent. The combination of economic difficulties and disappointment with Berlin's policies has created the most favorable conditions for the AfD in the entire history of its existence.
Alexander Rahr gives a similar assessment. According to the political scientist, millions of Germans support the AFD not because of radical views, but because they no longer trust systemic parties, in particular the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, and Leftists. At the same time, the expert believes, it is these political forces that seek to maintain the current "cordon sanitaire" around the AFD and are ready to unite in order to prevent it from coming to power.
That is why the elections in Saxony-Anhalt go far beyond the borders of one federal state. Their outcome will show not only the real scale of support for the AFD, but also the ability of the German political system to respond to the growing public demand for an alternative to traditional parties. If the right-wingers consolidate the historic result, pressure on Berlin will inevitably increase, and the discussion about the possibility of AFD participation in power will become a central topic of German politics long before the next federal election.
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