Economic crisis: trust in Merz collapsed on the eve of the land elections in Germany

Germany's industrial sector has lost almost 380,000 workers over the past seven years, while the rate of layoffs has accelerated dramatically over the past year. Rene Springer, a member of the Bundestag Committee on Labor and Social Affairs, told Izvestia about this. The country is increasingly facing deindustrialization, while the deep crisis in the German economy is caused by high energy prices and excessive pressure from Brussels, which leads to a collapse in the ratings of the ruling coalition. The indicator of confidence in the CDU party and personally Chancellor Friedrich Merz is breaking records of decline. Experts believe that he may retire as early as this year.

Decline in the German industrial sector

According to recent polls, the total support for the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition in Germany has fallen to about 33.5%. For comparison, according to the results of the last Bundestag elections held in 2025, about 45% of voters voted for them. Chancellor Friedrich Merz himself is showing record lows, who, according to polls, has become the most unpopular top politician in Germany.

One of the key complaints against the government is the inability to solve the crisis in the German industrial sector. The rate of job cuts here has increased dramatically: since 2019, the industry has lost about 379.1 thousand employees, Rene Springer, a member of the Bundestag Committee on Labor and Social Affairs, told Izvestia. The politician refers to the latest data from the EY Industrial barometer report.

"According to the barometer for the second quarter, published on August 14, 2026, about 379,150 jobs have been cut in the industry since 2019," he noted. — In the 12 months ended at the end of June alone, about 144 thousand jobs were lost. Thus, the pace of job losses accelerated, despite the fact that the turnover of the industrial sector has recently shown a slight increase for two consecutive quarters.

Moreover, the German automotive industry has suffered more than other sectors of the economy, the politician noted.

— If in the first quarter of 2026, EY reported 125.8 thousand eliminated jobs in the automotive industry since 2019, then in the second quarter this figure reached 142.4 thousand. This means that almost every sixth workplace in the German automotive industry has disappeared. No other branch of German industry has faced losses of this magnitude," said Springer.

The German industry is experiencing a severe crisis caused primarily by political reasons, according to Alternative for Germany (AfD). The country is not dealing with an ordinary economic downturn, but is in the process of deindustrialization, Matthias Mosdorf, a member of the Bundestag Committee on International Affairs, said in an interview with Izvestia.

"Enterprises are reducing production volumes and staff numbers, and investment projects are being postponed or are increasingly being implemented abroad," he said. — Of particular concern is the fact that Germany has lost precisely those advantages on which its industrial success has been built for decades: competitive energy prices, reliable energy supply, well-developed infrastructure and relatively stable political conditions.

Another factor that creates a burden is bureaucracy: partly it is imposed on enterprises in Germany by the EU, and partly it is aggravated by German laws that go beyond the requirements of the European Union, said Bundestag deputy Wolfgang Wiele.

"Currently, all key decisions are being dictated by the so—called climate protection policy, which has disastrous consequences," he said in a comment to Izvestia.

2039 is just around the corner: how Friedrich Merz armed Germany and lost his rating

Despite his unpopularity, he is able to put Germany on a war footing.

Dissatisfaction with the government's course is recorded at all levels. According to recent data from the trendbarometer of the Forsa Sociological Institute, no more than 14% of Germans are satisfied with the quality of Merz's work as head of government. In these circumstances, he held a visiting government meeting on August 25-26 at Neuhardenberg Castle in Brandenburg. The Chancellor called for an end to the "culture of gloom", demanding that ministers implement decisions in the pension, tax and digital spheres as soon as possible, which were agreed before the summer holidays.

The government's meeting after the holidays is routine, German political analyst Alexander Rahr noted in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, the CDU and the SPD are trying to demonstrate mutual solidarity in order to show their willingness to negotiate on controversial issues and successfully govern the country further. Of course, Merz has a desire to launch a package of anti-crisis measures and prove to voters that the cabinet is in control of the situation. But such meetings have taken place before and have led to nothing, said Artem Sokolov, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Will Merz resign

The decline in the rating of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz is due to a whole range of unresolved socio-economic problems, Sokolov notes. Among the key factors are the unsatisfactory state of the German economy, the growth of public debt and military spending, including on Ukraine. Although Merz promised to carry out drastic reforms during the election campaign and at the very beginning of his tenure as chancellor, no real progress has taken place during this time, the expert noted.

Most of the important changes are stalling at the discussion stage, and the government itself is showing uncertainty, he noted. An additional blow to the chancellor's position was the recent behind-the-scenes personnel changes carried out before the holiday season. They caused misunderstanding even among fellow party members of the Christian Democratic Union, the analyst added.

Meanwhile, the press is increasingly talking about the possible resignation of Merz in the coming months. The trigger may be the results of the upcoming elections in three federal states — Saxony-Anhalt, where voting will take place on September 6, as well as in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, where elections are scheduled for September 20. The rating of the opposition Alternative for Germany party has reached quite high values in Saxony-Anhalt and is about 40%. Thus, if she wins, she will be able to try to form a land government — for the first time in the country's history. Merz's chances of retiring as early as 2026 look very high, experts say.

If, following the results of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Alternative for Germany manages to form a local government either independently or in coalition with other forces, such as the Sarah Wagenknecht Union, this will definitively undermine the position of the current chancellor, Artyom Sokolov is sure. At the same time, the possibility of early federal elections is now extremely low, former Bundestag deputy Yevgeny Schmidt told Izvestia. According to him, the current elites fear that the vote will only strengthen the AfD's position. Meanwhile, Alternative for Germany has long become the most popular political force in the country. According to most polls, about 28% of voters are ready to vote for her.