Burden machine: the leasing market in Russia has shrunk dramatically

The number of customers in the leasing market has fallen 3.4 times in a year and a half: it has decreased to 57 thousand, the National Rating Agency (NRA) told Izvestia. The number of lessors has also decreased — by a third, to 465. This tool allows for long-term leases with the right to purchase, which allows companies to upgrade equipment without huge costs and tax burden. However, the high cost of money and falling investment demand have made it unaffordable for some businesses. This slows down the expansion of companies, and rising costs may eventually translate into prices for consumers. Which industries are suffering more from the decline in the leasing market and when it can recover — in the Izvestia article.

Why is the leasing market sagging

In a year and a half, Russian leasing companies have 3.4 times fewer customers, the NRA told Izvestia. At the same time, the number of lessors has also decreased. During the same period, 249 companies were closed or absorbed, and 465 players are currently operating on the market.

The latter is largely due to the consolidation of the market: the strong absorb the weak. But the decline in the customer base speaks precisely about the state of investment demand, says Daniil Gonenko, associate professor of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector at the Presidential Academy.

Leasing is especially important for companies that have already outgrown their own funds, but still do not have sufficient credit history and collateral to obtain bank financing, the expert explained. According to him, the compression of this segment actually complicates the transition of enterprises from small to medium-sized businesses.

For comparison, over the same year and a half, the volume of corporate lending in Russia even increased by 12%, to 100.2 trillion rubles. The fact is that the increase was mainly provided by large corporations.

Moreover, expensive lending has partly led to a contraction of the leasing market. These companies attract borrowed funds and put their cost into customer payments, therefore, at a key rate of 14%, large investment projects remain too expensive, said Vasily Kutyin, Director of Analytics at Ingo Bank. Izvestia asked the Central Bank to assess the impact of the key interest rate on corporate loans.

In addition, companies are tightening requirements amid an increase in delays and returns of equipment. Additional pressure was created by the growth of scrap collection, especially for freight and special transport, the analyst explained.

The reduction is also related to the deterioration of the secondary equipment market, said Oleg Abelev, head of the Analytical department at Rikom-Trust. In 2022-2023, lessors actively financed the purchase of trucks, including Chinese ones, relying on high demand and profitability of assets. Now prices for some of these vehicles have decreased, and tens of thousands of trucks have accumulated in the assets of these companies, which, even when sold, are not able to compensate for losses.

Which companies will be affected the most

The recession affects industries where machinery is the main production asset the most. First of all, we are talking about freight transportation and logistics, construction and railway transport, where the demand for leasing has already significantly decreased, Vasily Kutyin noted.

In auto leasing, the drop in the first six months of 2026 is estimated at 65-70% year-on-year, with problems affecting freight transport, construction and road equipment, as well as industrial equipment, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. In the future, the pressure may spread to agriculture, the food industry and retail trade.

Small and medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable, which are often physically unable to buy a truck, excavator or production equipment at their own expense, said Alexey Ivanov, owner of the Alliance Trucks commercial vehicle dealership network. The availability of leasing directly affects the ability of such companies to maintain and expand production.

Due to the shrinking market, businesses are already forced to operate old equipment for longer. Enterprises are postponing the replacement of machines, and instead of investing, they direct money to repair and maintain existing equipment, explained Dmitry Evdokimov, a researcher at the IPEI Presidential Academy.

The consequences may be particularly noticeable for individual industries. If carriers begin to decommission vehicles en masse without the ability to quickly replace them with new vehicles, this can lead to a shortage of supply in the trucking segment and higher prices, warned financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. While maintaining crisis conditions for one and a half to two years, he allowed an increase in the cost of a number of services by 5-10%.

How will this affect the Russians

For consumers, the consequences of this trend will manifest themselves gradually, primarily through the cost of goods and services. If a carrier cannot upgrade trucks, a construction company cannot upgrade special equipment, and an enterprise cannot upgrade equipment, their repair, maintenance, and downtime costs increase. The business will seek to shift part of these costs to customers, Vasily Kutyin noted.

First of all, this may manifest itself in the cost of freight transportation, construction work and agricultural products, Daniil Gonenko noted. Older equipment is less productive, more often idle and requires more expenses.

Slowed down: more than 10 thousand freight carriers may leave the market

What are the reasons and how will the industry be transformed?

At the same time, the possible price increase will not be automatic and will be the same for all industries. Companies will not be able to fully shift the additional costs to customers if demand remains weak, Alexey Ivanov emphasized. Businesses will have to choose between reducing their own margins, reducing other costs, and raising prices.

For the economy, the problem is broader than the leasing market itself. If enterprises do not upgrade their equipment, productivity growth and production expansion slow down, and some companies abandon investment projects, Dmitry Evdokimov noted. In the long run, this can limit GDP growth. Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy on how the shrinking leasing market affects economic development.

When will the market be able to recover

Experts do not expect leasing to disappear completely: it is still often more profitable for businesses than buying equipment on credit. Rather, the market will become more concentrated, and it will be more difficult for small companies to obtain financing, Natalia Milchakova believes. According to her assessment, if the Central Bank lowers the key to 12% or lower, the recovery may begin as early as next year.

At the same time, easing monetary policy alone will not solve the problem. Leasing companies need to restore confidence in the residual value of equipment and reduce the accumulated reserves of returned assets, Daniil Gonenko believes.

Vasily Kutyin does not expect a noticeable trend reversal before the second quarter of 2027. In addition to reducing the cost of money, he said, it will require economic stabilization, improved business expectations, and targeted preferential leasing programs.

Now the market is showing only the first signs of stabilization. In the first half of 2026, the number of leased items transferred to customers increased by 6%, Alexey Ivanov said. However, the return of previous volumes is still far away.