Slowed down: more than 10 thousand freight carriers may leave the market
As early as 2026, more than 10,000 cargo carriers may leave the Russian market, industry participants told Izvestia. Among the main reasons, they cite a decrease in demand for transportation by up to 20%, an increase in the cost of services, the massive withdrawal of equipment by leasing companies and increased government regulation. By the end of 2025, about 7 thousand companies out of 458 thousand they were already at the stage of liquidation or bankruptcy. According to experts, this trend may increase this year. How the industry will transform after the departure of some of the players is in the Izvestia article.
Weak players began to leave the cargo transportation market
About 10-13 thousand transport companies may leave the Russian cargo transportation market this year. According to Vadim Filatov, president of the Avtogruzex Association, in 2025 and early 2026, against the background of declining business and consumer activity, as well as rising operating costs, the profitability of many carriers approached zero, forcing some companies to stop working. With demand stagnating, 7-10% of players may leave it, and the industry will consolidate by the end of 2027, the expert believes.
Tatiana Brovkina, partner of the investment banking practice at the international law firm White Stone, also estimates the scale of the withdrawal of participants at 10-13 thousand companies across the country - from small to large players.
— Some carriers are forced to cease operations, some are deliberately going out of business, realizing that it will be extremely difficult to withstand further competition. In some cases, we are talking about the sale of the entire company, in others — individual assets or business shares, followed by a phased exit of the owner," she explained.
The rising cost of transportation increases the pressure on the industry. By the middle of 2025, the cost per 1 km reached 85-86 rubles, while the average transportation rate was about 74.7 rubles per kilometer. Thus, a significant part of flights are operated below the cost level. An additional burden is created by the growth of mandatory payments and expenses. Since January, the recycling fee has increased by 10% to almost 3 million rubles per tractor, and foreign exchange and transaction costs increase import transportation costs by another 10-15%, said Roman Sudorgin, founder of the Main Transport cargo portal.
The situation has led to the intensification of transactions in the market. According to Tatiana Lukyanova, a lawyer and partner of the M&A and DD ASB Consulting Group practice, most often we are not talking about buying a legal entity as a whole, but about acquiring individual assets. Medium-sized companies have the hardest time.
According to Roman Sudorgin, by the end of 2025, about 7 thousand companies out of 458 thousand market participants were already in the process of liquidation or bankruptcy. By the end of 2026, the industry may shrink by 10-15% in quantitative terms, the expert predicts.
— Small players without their own customer base, strong brand, IT solutions or significant assets are becoming the most vulnerable. Such companies are often not of interest to potential buyers and can rely mainly on the sale of equipment and other tangible assets. At the same time, medium—sized companies that have an established customer base, qualified employees and their own solutions, on the contrary, may become an object of interest for large players," he said.
According to the Rusprofile service, as of July, 474.8 thousand companies related to the segment of road freight transportation (OKVED 49.4) were registered in Russia. Of these, 79,000 are legal entities, and another 395.8 thousand are individual entrepreneurs.
What are the causes of the problems in the freight market?
The main reasons for the changes in the industry were a decrease in the volume of goods transported, a long period of tariff reductions, an increase in the cost of transportation and the mass withdrawal of equipment by leasing companies.
According to Tatiana Brovkina, the turning point for the industry was 2025. Then, for the first time in a long time, the market was faced not with the traditional indexation of tariffs, but with their reduction — in March, rates were 10% lower than the level of the previous year, and by May the decline accelerated to 33%. The reason was a sharp decline in demand, which was subsequently unable to be compensated.
The market is still feeling the consequences of this. According to industry participants, in January-February 2026, the volume of the cargo base decreased by almost 1% compared to the same period in 2025, and the cost of domestic transportation decreased by about 4%.
A source in the logistics industry told Izvestia that tariffs have continued to decrease for a long time, but today the market has reached the limit — there is nowhere to lower rates further. The marginality of many shipments has become so low that companies are forced to review rates, otherwise it becomes economically impossible to work, he said.
Fuel problems at some gas stations in the country forced carriers to increase the frequency of refueling trucks up to three times, Vadim Filatov said. This, in turn, led to an increase in vehicle downtime in queues at gas stations by an average of four hours per week with a five-day driver schedule. In addition, taking into account the cancellation of fuel discounts, fuel prices rose by 16-18% in June alone, which additionally increased the cost of transportation by at least 4-5%, he added.
The increase in downtime and costs is already affecting delivery times. Due to delays, transport companies receive fines from customers, which further worsens their financial situation, said NATCAR CEO Samat Sattarov. Against the background of rising fuel prices and disruptions in its availability, freight rates increased by 12-15%, Vitaly Skuratov, Director of Transport Logistics at Baikal-Service TC LLC, confirmed to Izvestia.
According to Alexey Shpikelman, General Director of the federal transport and logistics company Byte Transit, by mid-July, the reduction in traffic volumes turned out to be more noticeable than it is reflected in monetary figures.
— Despite the growth of consumer demand in monetary terms by about 1%, in physical terms it decreased by 10-15%, and the volume of cargo transportation decreased by about 20%. Many companies, including major players, have not yet been able to coordinate tariff revisions with customers. At the same time, the cost of transportation continues to grow primarily due to the rise in price of diesel fuel," the expert said.
Grigory Bogdanov, founder and CEO of ESG-Logistics, believes that the situation in the logistics industry is more difficult now than in many other segments of the economy.
— Even large federal companies with fleets of several thousand cars are closing. Leasing organizations are withdrawing equipment because carriers can no longer fulfill their payment obligations," he said.
According to the expert, parking lots in Moscow and the Moscow region are filled with tractors belonging to both large and small carriers. The scale of the problem is also confirmed by market data: since June 2025, the volume of equipment seized by leasing companies has been increasing monthly. In total, about 80,000 vehicles have already been seized, of which 60-70% are trucks.
Izvestia sent inquiries to Sberbank Leasing, Gazprombank Leasing, and VTB Leasing.
What impact has government regulation had on the industry?
Increased government regulation is putting additional pressure on the freight transportation industry. The GosLog register of freight forwarders began operating on March 1, 2026. All freight forwarding companies are required to register in the system in order to continue their work.
— After April 30, companies that have not submitted an application cannot engage in this activity or will receive fines (from 100,000 to 1 million rubles). Moreover, the responsibility will extend not only to carriers, but also to cargo owners cooperating with unregistered companies," explained Grigory Bogdanov.
The next stage of the reform will be the introduction of an electronic bill of lading. From September 1, the registration of an ETRN will become mandatory for all cargo transportation. It will also not be possible to transport anything according to documents "retroactively". Also, from March 1, 2027, the register of carriers will be launched, in which transport companies will have to confirm compliance with state requirements.
Roman Sudorgin noted that the recent changes reflect the government's desire to increase the transparency of the industry — to understand who is transporting what goods and in which directions — both for the sake of safety and to increase the effectiveness of tax control. According to his estimates, more than 60% of the market has been in a gray area for a long time.
"As a result, we will get a large white market — about 80-90% of the industry — and the remaining shadow segment, which uses openly illegal methods of work," the expert believes.
According to Vadim Filatov, the new initiative will lead to the gradual withdrawal of unscrupulous participants from the market, who reduce prices by optimizing tax payments and mandatory fees. According to Avtogruzex, last year their share in the industry could reach 70%.
A window of opportunity for major players
Against the background of the departure of some carriers, large companies, on the contrary, get the opportunity to strengthen their positions. According to Dmitry Chirkin, managing partner of the international law firm White Stone, a window of opportunity is opening for them now.: They can acquire promising companies, combine assets and, through synergy, improve the performance of both the acquired business and their own divisions.
According to Tatiana Brovkina, the share of the ten largest participants may grow from the current 18-20% to 25-27%. Alexey Shpikelman, CEO of Byte Transit, believes that in the current situation, strategic partnerships and new formats of interaction between companies are of particular importance.
At the same time, industry representatives consider the ongoing changes to be a natural stage in the development of the market. According to Grigory Bogdanov, logistics is entering a period of more mature competition, when all participants will work according to the same rules. Companies will no longer be able to gain an advantage due to gray schemes and optimization of the tax burden — they will have to compete with efficiency, quality of service and the level of organization of work.
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