They count in the fall: what will happen to the demand for mortgages
In September, Russian banks sharply increased the issuance of mortgages — the volume amounted to 614 billion rubles. Compared to August, the indicator jumped by 54%. Russians sought to buy housing before the October changes in the conditions of the "Family Mortgage." In the future, experts expect a decrease in demand for the preferential program due to adjustments and stagnation of market rates. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Into the last carriage
In September, Russian banks issued mortgages for 614 billion rubles (+54% compared to August), the highest monthly result since the beginning of the year, according to a preliminary assessment by the Analytical Center DOM.RF.
Analysts attribute the main "acceleration" of demand to adjustments in the Family Mortgage preferential program: borrowers were in a hurry to complete transactions before changing the terms of the program on October 1.
Family mortgage is a government program of preferential housing loans for families with children, which allows you to get a mortgage loan at a reduced rate. The program is valid until December 31, 2030. Eligible to participate in the program are families with: a child up to and including six years old (at the time of signing the loan agreement); a child with a disability (up to and including 18 years old). Two or more minor children are required to purchase housing in small towns with a population of up to 50,000 people or in regions with low construction rates. The rate was 6% per annum for the entire loan term.
Conditions have changed
Since October 1, changes have been made to the program — its parameters have been linked to the number of children in the family and the region of purchase of housing. For Moscow, the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the rate is set in the range from 4% to 12%, for all other subjects — from 2% to 10%. The loan limits are also different: in Moscow and St. Petersburg, you can count on the amount from 12 to 18 million rubles, in other regions — from 6 to 10 million rubles.
Thus, changes in the Family Mortgage program have made it more targeted and focused on supporting large families with three or more children, especially in regions with high housing costs.
— For families with one child, the terms of the program have become less profitable: the interest rate has increased to 10% per annum, and the limit has remained the same — 6 million rubles, — says Elena Sultanova, commercial director of developer Bravo.
Analysts partly attribute the revival of the mortgage market to the fact that Russians postponed loan processing until the fall, expecting lower rates. But this did not happen: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation kept the key rate at 14% per annum.
"This gave a clear signal that in the near future the cost of housing loans will remain high, further waiting will not allow you to save money, especially against the background of rising real estate prices, and prompted you to apply for a mortgage," says Yuri Isaev, analyst at <url>.
The impact is uneven
The impact of the updated "Family Mortgage" on the market will be uneven.
Thus, the most favorable conditions for a family mortgage are for families with four children or more in the "non-metropolitan regions." The rate for them is 2-4%, the loan limit is 10 million rubles instead of the previous 6 million.
The easiest way to get a mortgage is for families with a large down payment of more than 50%: under such conditions, the rate remained at a comfortable level of 6% even for families with one child and regardless of the region of purchase.
— It is also important to note a new rule: if in the first year after the mortgage is issued, the family closes part of the loan (for example, after the sale of another property) and the remaining debt becomes less than 50% of the cost of the apartment, the bank reduces the interest rate to 6%, which will significantly reduce monthly payments and reduce the final overpayment on the mortgage, — says Julian Ovechkin, Head of Mortgage Department, Level Group.
However, for example, when buying a private house, the rate remained 6% regardless of the number of children and the region.
— For families with one or two children (the majority in Russia among families with children) This is currently the lowest rate on a family mortgage. With a loan of 12 million rubles for 15 years, the payment for an apartment that was bought at 12% will amount to about 144 thousand rubles per month, and for a house bought at 6% — about 101 thousand rubles, — says Igor Penkov, commercial director of the Zemelny Express company.
Short-term effect
According to analysts, similar bursts of activity in the mortgage market have been recorded before, as a rule, on the eve of tightening mortgage programs.
Of the 614 billion rubles of mortgage loans issued in September, the lion's share fell on government-supported programs. Therefore, the increase in loans does not mean that buyers are massively ready to take out market mortgages at high rates, says Tatiana Polyakova, realtor, certified investment broker.
The changes will affect the number of transactions under the preferential program — the demand for family mortgages may fall by 10-40%, Elena Sultanova believes. It is possible that some of the demand will shift towards more compact and affordable housing, but it is too early to talk about a serious change in the structure of demand, the analyst is sure.
Market rates
According to forecasts, disbursements are likely to decrease in October and November: a significant part of the demand, in particular for family mortgages, has already been realized.
After the September decision of the Bank of Russia to suspend the reduction of the key interest rate, the mortgage market froze in anticipation, analysts of the <url> service state.
The average rate on housing loans, excluding preferential programs, is now close to 19%. At the same time, the actual availability depends not only on the rate, but also on the cost of housing in a particular region.
Therefore, even if the "key" goes down, taking into account the fact that banks are reducing loan rates with a delay, they do not expect a sharp reduction in price before the end of the year: market mortgage rates will stagnate.
— Even if the Central Bank returns to easing monetary policy, the key rate will change in the range of 0.25-0.5 percentage points. In conditions of uncertainty, banks are in no hurry to change rates. Therefore, the mortgage cost will be adjusted point—by-point by individual banks and only slightly. Moreover, the rate can change not only from a decrease, but also from an increase," explains Yuri Isaev.
Smaller and farther away
In a high-stakes environment, analysts identify several trends.
First, buyers try to reduce the loan amount as much as possible: sell existing housing, use their own savings and take out a mortgage only for the missing part.
In cities with millions of inhabitants, demand is shifting from the central and established areas to the outskirts and to the region.
At the same time, interest in the secondary market is growing. Here, buyers either solve an urgent housing issue by selling an old apartment and adding a minimum amount of mortgage funds, or consider individual facilities for short-term investment projects, Tatiana Polyakova notes.
Thus, the return of a "good" market mortgage is still far away. The market will continue to support preferential programs, but they are becoming more targeted.
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