Children decide everything: preferential mortgages will cover almost all regions of the country

Starting from October 1, the conditions for issuing a family mortgage will be adjusted — now they will become more profitable for those with many children. Before the reform, this program was available in 70 regions of the country. Currently, couples with average incomes and three children will have a loan approved in 72 regions, with four in 81, and with five across the country. For parents with one child, the rate may rise to 12%, which will make a preferential loan less attractive for buying investment apartments. How the changes will affect the real estate market is described in the Izvestia article.

Who will get a mortgage more easily

After changing the terms of preferential loans, families with three or more children will be able to afford to buy housing in more regions, the Analytical research center told Izvestia. Business. The right." The ratio of the monthly mortgage payment and the estimated family income, the PTI indicator, was used to assess affordability. A loan was considered affordable if it took no more than 30% of the family income to service it.

"The calculations were carried out for an apartment of 50 square meters. m with a down payment of 20% and a loan term of 20 years. The family income was assumed to be equal to one and a half average monthly salaries in the relevant region. The value of real estate was determined based on the standards of the Ministry of Construction for the third quarter of 2026, and income — according to the latest available data from Rosstat," they said.

Under the previous conditions of the program — a 6% rate and a limit of 6 million rubles in most regions and 12 million rubles in four metropolitan regions — the mortgage met the accessibility criterion in 70 of the 85 regions. In the remaining 15 regions, the payment exceeded 30% of the estimated family income.

After the reform, conditions will depend on the number of children. For families with one child, the number of subjects where the monthly contribution does not exceed 30% of income will be reduced from 70 to 27. At the same time, the average debt burden will reach 32%. In other words, mortgage costs will exceed the threshold set in the study in more than half of the regions.

If there are two children, there will be 56 such subjects — 14 fewer than before. For those with many children, the situation is changing: with three children, the figure will rise to 72, and with four — to 81.

"The new conditions are becoming most beneficial for families with five or more children. Mortgages will be available for them in 84 of the 85 regions," the analysts noted. — Compared to the previous program parameters, families with three children receive two additional available regions, with four — 11, with five or more — 14. On the contrary, for families with one or two children, the geography of available mortgages is shrinking."

Another change concerns the duration of the subsidy: preferential terms will be valid for 15 years. At the same time, in the study, the loan term was kept at the level of 20 years so that the results could be compared with the previous model. The rate for the period from the 16th to the 20th year is still unknown. Therefore, it is impossible to accurately estimate the amount of payments.

"The real long-term availability of the program will depend not only on the initial payment, but also on what conditions banks will offer borrowers after the end of the 15-year support period. However, at the first stage, large families become the main beneficiaries of the reform: increasing the limits allows them to abandon the market part of the loan and expands the geography of affordable mortgages."

Targeted benefits

The reform may reduce the attractiveness of family mortgages for buyers of investment housing. The fewer children there are in a family, the higher the estimated debt burden turns out to be and the narrower the range of regions where the payment corresponds to the income level.

Until 2023, 20-22% of purchases using a family mortgage were made for investment purposes. Then the indicator dropped to 10%, and recently, against the background of the restrictions imposed, it did not exceed 6-7%, Tatyana Reshetnikova, deputy head of the mortgage department of the federal company Etagi, told Izvestia.

— Before the restrictions were introduced, preferential mortgage programs attracted investors, among others. They not only took out cheap loans for themselves, but also attracted so—called donors," the expert believes. — After the changes from October 1, such transactions are likely to become isolated: it will become extremely difficult to use donors.

Now the family mortgage is more focused on improving housing conditions, said Tatiana Reshetnikova. Those who have already purchased a starter home and plan to expand are in a better position.

— It has become more difficult for families with one child to purchase an apartment, especially if it is their first property. At the same time, they can apply for a family mortgage at 6% for the construction of their own house," she recalled.

Denis Zhalnin, CEO of the People development company, noted that family mortgages have become more targeted since the beginning of the program. So, as the family grows, borrowers can lower the interest rate by refinancing the loan.

Director of the center "Analytics. Business. Pravo" Venera Shaidullina agrees that the change in conditions from October 1, 2026 may lead to a decrease in investment demand for housing purchased on a preferential mortgage.

— Reducing such demand can reduce pressure on prices in the primary market and make government support more targeted. At the same time, modeling shows that for families with one and two children who buy real estate for their own living, the availability of the program will decrease significantly," she said.

In her opinion, instead of further increasing the cost of credit for such borrowers, it is worthwhile to more accurately separate the social and investment goals of the purchase.

A milder solution would be to allow families to have their own housing, but not to provide benefits when buying a second and subsequent property, unless there are sufficient grounds for this, added Susana Kirakosyan, chairman of the CCI Subcommittee on business development in the field of residential real estate management.

— For those who really need to improve their living conditions, you can keep a lower rate if you confirm such a need. For example, if a family does not have enough space, a child is born, or a move to another region is required," she said.

How will the reform affect the housing market

A change in the terms of a family mortgage may lead to a transfer of some buyers from new buildings to the secondary market. This will be facilitated by reducing the difference between the market and preferential rates, said Natalia Bogomolova, senior director of NRA ratings of financial institutions. At the same time, a family mortgage for secondary housing is available only in some small towns, whereas a regular mortgage allows you to choose from a much larger number of properties.

Some buyers may prefer more affordable ready-made housing in the expectation that in one or two years the loan will be able to be refinanced at a lower rate, said Ekaterina Shchurikhina, Director of Credit Institution Ratings at Expert RA agency. However, she does not expect a massive transition due to the high rates on market loans. At the same time, developers may offer installments more often, but the possibilities of such a tool to support sales will be limited by its regulation by the Central Bank.

According to Vasily Kutin, Ingo Bank's Director of analytics, the transition to the secondary market has already begun. In the first eight months of 2026, the number of ready-made housing transactions increased by 28% year-on-year, and in the third quarter sales were 32% higher than last year's level. At the same time, the price difference between new buildings and finished apartments decreased from 25% to 20% by the end of the third quarter.

If demand continues to grow and supply continues to decrease, prices for ready—made housing may go up. During the quarter, the number of properties for sale decreased by 10%, so competition is intensifying, said Kirill Agapov, CEO of Umbrella Consulting Group. According to him, sellers can already change the price right during the transaction. Therefore, buyers should fix the cost in advance in the preliminary contract.

In the primary market, on the contrary, a slowdown in demand can lead to slower price increases. Sales of new buildings are largely supported by state aid, so tightening preferential programs may further reduce the number of transactions, Natalia Bogomolova emphasized.

The decrease in the availability of family mortgages will especially affect borrowers with one and two children, who account for a significant portion of purchases. For developers, this means a further drop in sales, an increase in the remaining unsold apartments and a decrease in margins, said Vasily Kutyin.

Massmarket developers in the metropolitan regions may be the most vulnerable, Kirill Agapov believes. A decrease in interest in new buildings can force companies to reconsider plans to launch new projects and increase the risk of delays in delivery. First of all, this applies to developers with a high debt burden and a strong dependence on sales in the early stages of construction.

Buyers of new buildings should choose facilities with a high degree of readiness and especially carefully check the financial condition and reputation of the developer, Kirill Agapov concluded.