Peaceful regulation: how the first day of negotiations in Abu Dhabi ended

It is unlikely to be possible to conclude a framework peace agreement at the current trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, but the parties are close to agreeing on the format for further settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At a meeting on November 10, the parties discussed security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine after the end of hostilities and agreed on a new prisoner exchange, Ukrainian media reported, citing sources in their delegation. A source from Izvestia had previously confirmed that the Ukrainian settlement would be an important point in the negotiations, but only one of the points of a large-scale discussion on the formation of a new continental security system. On November 11, the trilateral meeting in the UAE capital will continue. The details of the first day of negotiations can be found in the Izvestia article.

The first day of negotiations in the UAE

On the first day of the talks in Abu Dhabi, the participants discussed security guarantees for Russia, Ukraine and Europe after the end of the conflict. This was reported by the Ukrainian media, citing sources in their delegation. Earlier, a source from Izvestia clarified that the key topic of the meeting was to create a comprehensive and indivisible security architecture for the entire continent, and the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, despite its importance, is only one of the points of a large—scale discussion.

According to media reports, on November 10, the parties also agreed on a new prisoner exchange, which will take place in the near future. The meeting lasted about four and a half hours. Journalists note that representatives of Moscow and Kiev communicated with each other in Russian.

The Russian delegation is headed by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, and the Ukrainian delegation is headed by Rustem Umerov, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. On the U.S. side, special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and the son-in-law of the American leader, Jared Kushner, are participating in the negotiations. The Commander-in-Chief of NATO forces in Europe, Alexus Grinkevich, was also at the negotiating table. According to Axios, a military working group under his leadership was supposed to discuss monitoring the post-conflict truce and security measures. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the talks "productive." According to Volodymyr Zelensky, the meeting was "constructive and quite informative."

Despite the previously agreed trilateral format of the meeting, the Europeans did not give up trying to join the negotiations. Some even flew to Abu Dhabi in the hope of getting into the meeting room. The day before, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud said that European representatives would personally attend the meeting, saying: "You will see photos and video footage." However, the published footage showed that there were no Europeans at the negotiating table. In fact, they only held preliminary consultations with the Ukrainian and American delegations before the start of the main meeting.

Russia generally supports the involvement of the Europeans in the negotiations, but only at a later stage. The Europeans continue to demand that the fire cease first and only then begin a dialogue on the European security system. Moscow opposes the truce, stressing that it will only give Kiev a break to restore its military potential. Washington has previously expressed the need to work out a large-scale agreement that would go beyond the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and affect the security system of the whole of Europe.

— The Russian Federation will not agree to enter into another truce, not understanding what will happen next. The idea of forming clear security guarantees first is absolutely reasonable," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on November 10, adding that European representatives who arrived in Abu Dhabi "can stay at the hotel for now."

By the way, Moscow's arguments are confirmed by the unfriendly actions of the Europeans. On November 9, the EU Council for the first time announced its intention to officially ensure its military presence in Ukraine as part of the EUMAM Ukraine training mission. Prior to that, the training was conducted on the territory of the EU countries. Brussels extended the mission's mandate until November 15, 2028 and allocated almost €300 million for its work. At the same time, exercises of the "coalition of the willing" are underway in Poland under the leadership of Great Britain and France, where the military is checking how ready the contingent is for a possible transfer to Ukraine after the end of hostilities. Russia has repeatedly stated that Moscow considers any deployment of Western military contingents on the territory of Ukraine categorically unacceptable.

The European Union aims to "contain" Russia and create an eastern outpost of NATO from Ukraine, political analyst Mikhail Kucherov told Izvestia. Vladimir Zelensky himself cannot and does not want to change course, as he receives a lot of money and weapons from the EU in exchange for commitments to continue hostilities against the Russian Federation, the analyst believes.

What to expect from the second day of negotiations

If the first day of talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi was devoted to security guarantees, then on November 11, participants should discuss territorial differences, Politico previously wrote, citing American officials. The negotiators do not hide the fact that this topic remains one of the most difficult. Moscow has repeatedly stated that a cease-fire is possible only after the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass. Kiev still refuses to take such a step.

Meanwhile, very unusual scenarios for resolving the territorial dispute appeared in the media. According to sources in The Economist magazine, Donald Trump's team is proposing to change the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions so that Ukraine does not formally have to cede land. The American leader himself had previously noted that as a result of the conflict, Ukraine would take on a "slightly different shape."

The main feature of the new round is the construction of the agenda: the "territorial issue" has been pushed aside, which strongly stalled the process in previous rounds, and the security of Russia, Ukraine and the region as a whole has been put first, Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. This point was proposed by the American side, and Moscow welcomed this approach. According to this logic, it will be easier to agree on how the world will work after the conflict than on where the line of contact will be, the analyst notes.

According to Novik, there is a high probability that a framework peace treaty should not be expected in the near future — it will be assembled in parts. This is happening now with the mediation of the United States, where the parties agreed on a humanitarian truce in Alyoshki in the Kherson region and agreed on monthly humanitarian supplies to the residents of this city.

Western media reports that following the meeting in Abu Dhabi, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner may travel to Moscow, and then to Kiev. It is possible that the United States will try to agree on a draft peace deal before the end of this year, that is, before the start of the work of the renewed Congress, where both chambers will be controlled by the Democratic Party (this is the result of the defeat of the Republicans in the midterm elections).

Democrats are likely to seek new aid packages for Ukraine and question the diesel deal concluded with Russia in October, as well as any easing of sanctions, Nikolai Novik believes. In addition, there is a broader international context — a possible key meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who held talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga in Paris on November 10, said preparations for a meeting between Putin, Xi and Trump were continuing, and "good news may come soon." At the same time, he stressed that the issue of conflict settlement would not be resolved within the next 24 hours. Nikolai Novik believes that in this logic, the Abu Dhabi talks can become a preparatory stage for the leaders' conversation at the APEC summit. In other words, the parties are now close to an agreement on the process itself, but not on peace.