General imitation: why Europe is rehearsing sending troops to Ukraine

European countries from among the "coalition of the willing" are working out a scenario for deploying a military contingent in Ukraine after the end of hostilities. The first large-scale MNF-U exercises led by Great Britain and France are designed to test the readiness of the allies for joint action. The maneuvers take place against the background of NATO's intensification near the Russian borders, including in the Baltic region. According to the interviewed experts, these processes may be an attempt to influence the negotiations on Ukraine and the situation around the Kaliningrad region. What tasks the alliance solves and what consequences its activity can lead to are described in the Izvestia article.

Training of troops for Ukraine

Multinational Forces for Ukraine (MNF-U) exercises led by Great Britain and France are taking place in Poland. About 2.8 thousand military personnel from 11 countries, including 1.1 thousand French and 300 British troops, are participating in the maneuvers. The British Army has deployed Eurofighter Typhoon fighters and Voyager tanker aircraft, while Germany will provide up to two A400M military transport aircraft for aerial refueling and logistical support.

The task of the maneuvers is to work out logistics, troop movements and potential actions of the allies in Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities. At the same time, the decision on the deployment of the contingent has not been made: Europe associates it with the ceasefire. And Vladimir Putin had previously stated that the foreign military stationed in Ukraine would become legitimate targets.

Pressure on negotiations

The exercises of the "coalition of the willing" can be not only military preparation for the possible deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, but also an instrument of political pressure on the negotiation process, military expert Boris Jerelievsky believes. Their holding coincided with the start of a new round of trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi.

— The exercises are working out, among other things, the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine and conducting military operations against Russia in case of an aggravation of the situation. This is a way of putting pressure on the negotiation process. European countries are not directly involved in the current round of negotiations, so in this way they demonstrate their involvement in what is happening and try to influence it," the expert told Izvestia.

According to Jerelievsky, the training of multinational forces may push Moscow to take a tougher stance on the issue of guarantees for Ukraine's security. He believes that the plans proposed by Western countries for the post-war reconstruction of the country also pursue long-term political goals.

— Now, in fact, a kind of Marshall Plan (a program of US economic assistance to European countries after World War II — Ed.) is being prepared for Ukraine. His task is to put the country under the long—term control of the states and Western states. Therefore, it is important to understand that the proposed options do not take into account Russian interests and are directed against our country," said Jerelievsky.

While plans for the deployment of a contingent in Ukraine remain uncertain, European countries are already testing their readiness for such a mission in practice. At the same time, NATO's military activity in the Baltic region is increasing tensions around Russia's borders.

NATO exercises near Russia's borders

The multinational force exercises for Ukraine coincided with the ongoing maneuvers of European countries near the Russian borders — at the same time, Freedom Shield 26-II and Grand Eagle 26 maneuvers are taking place in Lithuania, involving more than 6 thousand German troops from the 45th Armored Brigade Lithuania and the 37th Mechanized Brigade Saxony, as well as military personnel from NATO countries.

These maneuvers may be part of the North Atlantic Alliance's preparations for a possible conflict with Russia and Belarus, military expert Yuri Knutov told Izvestia.

— A German armored brigade is currently deployed in Lithuania, which will be armed with new Leopards. The exercises are one of the elements of preparing military personnel for possible clashes with both Belarus and Russia. There is no doubt that NATO is preparing for a conflict with the Union State," he said.

Knutov is particularly concerned about the maneuvers in Poland and other countries bordering the Kaliningrad region. The expert believes that they should be considered together: despite the relatively small number of participants in individual exercises, the tasks being worked out may be related to preparations for possible actions against the Russian region.

An attempt to capture the Kaliningrad region would lead to a serious military conflict in which Russia would use various means of destruction, military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia.

— If someone expects that the capture of the Kaliningrad region will be an easy walk, then this is not the case. This is a serious confrontation with far-reaching consequences. Various means of destruction may be involved, including the Oreshnik complex," he said.

According to the expert, despite the fact that the Baltic Fleet is inferior in number of ships to some fleets of NATO countries, it has the capabilities to counter a potential attack.

On November 9, during an online speech at the OSCE round table on the topic "Militarization of Europe: what's next?", Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia was aware of the West's plans to blockade the Kaliningrad region.

— We are aware of our opponents' plans for a blockade and other destructive effects on the Kaliningrad region. No one should have any doubts, attempts at their practical implementation are a direct path to disaster," Ryabkov said.

Against the background of maneuvers conducted by NATO countries, the crew of the Serpukhov small missile ship conducted exercises in the Baltic Sea to destroy the sea and coastal targets of a simulated enemy. According to the press service of the Baltic Fleet, the navy carried out electronic launches of the Kalibr missile system at targets that simulated a detachment of warships and important coastal facilities. In addition, the crew practiced the detection and destruction of small-sized aerial targets, the use of air defense systems and electronic jamming. According to the fleet's press service, "all designated targets were successfully hit."