Start a campaign: preparations for the 2028 presidential election have begun in the United States

The recent congressional elections in the United States accelerated the start of the presidential campaign. Republican candidates who have suffered fiasco will distance themselves from Donald Trump's failures in foreign policy, experts say. Vice President Jay Dee Vance has already announced the creation of a coalition of the "new right," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio may leave the White House altogether. The Democrats' favorites may be centrist Senator John Ossoff, who won the elections in Georgia, as well as leftist congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Whether the "blues" will be able to avoid a split in the party and what role Elon Musk will play in the race is in the Izvestia article.

How will the Republicans run for president?

The midterm congressional elections on November 3 changed the balance of political forces in Washington. The Democratic Party gained control of both chambers — the Senate and the House of Representatives. For Republicans, such a result means not only the loss of legislative initiative, but also an unsuccessful start to the presidential race. Voting for the post of head of state will take place in November 2028, but potential candidates are already beginning to prepare for the election race.

For a successful fight, Republicans will have to distance themselves from Donald Trump after losing the congressional elections, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, explained to Izvestia. Vice President J.D. Vance did just that - immediately after the announcement of the results, he began forming his own "new right" program criticizing the current president's geopolitics. "The reason we lost was the war [with Iran]," he wrote on social media.

In the same publication, Vance listed a number of points that should help Republicans regain popular support: ending the war with Iran, raising living standards, fighting inflation, and reviewing relations with Israel. A source told Fox News that the vice president's program should be viewed as a call to the "new right" - the "reds" who support Trump's original principle of "America first" but disagree with his foreign policy.

The American media call Secretary of State Marco Rubio Vance's main rival. According to the British newspaper The Independent, he may resign in the near future in order to distance himself from Trump and prepare to participate in the presidential election. Interestingly, in hypothetical duels against Democrats, Rubio is seen by voters as a stronger centrist: according to Emerson College polls, he defeats former Vice President Kamala Harris (48% to 43%), while Vance loses to her.

However, Rubio may even go into the shadows for a while and refuse to participate in the presidential race, American scholar Malek Dudakov believes. He did not rule out that the vice president would also decide to "sit out" the 2028 elections due to the high probability of defeat after the strengthened positions of the Democratic Party.

In this regard, a politician who is not currently part of the Trump administration, Florida Governor Ron Desantis, may become a "dark horse". His "red" state became one of the few where Republicans won. At the same time, Desantis himself will step down from his post in December. Dudakov believes that he can take over the post of head of the Pentagon or launch a presidential campaign next year, becoming an outsider candidate with a chance of winning. Now the politician is criticizing the war with Iran and trying to distance himself from Trump's failures.

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The "Elon Musk factor" plays an important role in this configuration. The billionaire is legally barred from running for the highest office, as he was born in South Africa. However, he remains the largest financial and media sponsor of the party. Through his America PAC committee, Musk continues to pour significant funds into supporting conservative forces, and his decision to support Vance, Rubio or Desantis will largely determine who becomes the unified Republican candidate. He recently stressed that if the Blues win in 2028, the United States will forever turn into a one-party state, which will put an end to real democracy.

The main Democratic candidates

The Democratic Party is in a stable and advantageous position after its success in the midterm elections. In the next two years in Congress, they will block any radical initiatives of Trump and form their own agenda before the presidential campaign. At the same time, moderate pragmatic politicians from key regions who are able to find a compromise with a wide range of the population come to the fore.

According to a nationwide AtlasIntel poll released on November 1, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is in the lead among potential Democratic candidates. He was confidently re—elected to the Senate in one of the swing states and is ahead of the traditional heavyweights - former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Ossoff has not been involved in major scandals and is trying to balance between the party elites and the far-left wing of the Democratic Party, Malek Dudakov notes. In particular, if the senator used to support Israel, now he is increasingly criticizing it.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in second place, with a slight gap. She represents the left-wing progressive wing of the Democratic Party and advocates radical social reforms and harsh taxes for businesses. Her strong positions are splitting the party, as party elites and major donors are betting on moderate centrists, fearing that an overly leftist agenda will scare off independent voters in the 2028 elections.

The Democrats' "dark horse" could be the current governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro. He retains strong support in the industrial region of the Rust Belt, which traditionally determines the outcome of presidential elections. Shapiro positions himself as a centrist who is able to effectively interact with both big business and trade unions. According to him, the victories in the congressional elections were achieved thanks to candidates who attracted the support of wavering voters. Thus, the future of the Democrats in the 2028 elections will depend on whether they manage to agree on a strong candidate and avoid an internal party split, Andrei Kortunov summarizes. However, now their chances of winning are growing anyway.

In the coming two years, the political struggle in the United States will only increase. The country is entering a divided government regime, with the Republicans holding executive power and the Democrats holding legislative power. For the Reds, this will be a period of fierce competition for the right to succeed Trump, while simultaneously distancing themselves from him. For the Blues, it was a stage of rivalry between the former Washington leadership and young governors and senators. In such a situation, almost all key decisions in Washington up to 2028 will be made through the prism of future presidential elections.