Scientists have developed a simple way to assess the risk of dementia

About 60% of people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, many disease risk assessment tools were created based on data from more affluent countries, so their results are not always applicable to other regions. An international team of scientists has developed a model that makes it possible to assess the likelihood of developing dementia using several questions about the daily life of an elderly person. The information about what factors the new system takes into account and what it is planned to be used for is in the Izvestia article.

Five risk factors

Researchers led by specialists from the University of Northumbria have developed and tested a model for assessing the risk of dementia based on five indicators. Blood tests, CT scans, or special equipment are not needed for its use: the necessary information can be obtained during a routine conversation with an elderly person, and in some cases with his relatives or those who care for him.

The results of the work are published in the American Journal of Epidemiology (AJE). The researchers used data from 11,143 people from seven countries. During the follow—up, 1,069 participants were diagnosed with dementia, which is 9.6% of the sample. The average follow-up period was 3.8 years.

The final model included age, social activity, physical activity, high blood pressure, and money management difficulties. The latter indicator is assessed, in particular, by whether close people notice changes in a person's ability to manage finances independently.

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What the model takes into account

Age turned out to be the most consistent predictor of dementia: the likelihood of the disease increased markedly after the age of 70 and even more strongly after 80. The remaining indicators cover different aspects of daily life. For example, social activity includes socializing with friends and relatives, living together with other people, and participating in social or religious events.

When assessing physical activity, not only sports are taken into account. The usual daily movements are also important — walking, housework, physical activity during work. Separately, the researchers included high blood pressure, as it is associated with the condition of blood vessels supplying the brain with blood.

Each factor is assigned a certain number of points. The final score can range from zero to nine. According to the calculations of scientists, with a zero result, the probability of developing dementia within three years is about 1%, and with nine points it approaches 19%. These values reflect the model's prediction for groups of people with the corresponding results, rather than allowing for a diagnosis or accurate prediction of a particular person's fate.

Verification in seven countries

The model was developed and tested on data from study participants from China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. The overall predictive ability score was 0.75. It reflects how well the system distinguishes between people at different risk of developing the disease, rather than the percentage of error-free individual predictions.

The authors noted that the result of the model varied depending on the country. In addition, an analysis of the practical usefulness of the model showed that in most of the regions studied, adding four factors to age provided only a small advantage compared to age-only risk assessment. Therefore, researchers do not consider the system to be a ready-made solution for mass population surveys or clinical decision-making.

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What is development useful for?

The main purpose of the model is to help researchers find people with an increased likelihood of developing dementia to participate in research projects and clinical trials. This approach may be useful in regions where access to specialized equipment and medical examinations is limited. At the same time, the authors emphasize that the tool is not intended for self-diagnosis or mass screening.

The scientists also pointed out the need for additional validation of the model in regions that were not included in the study. In particular, we are talking about the countries of South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. It is not yet possible to say that the system will work there with the same predictive ability.