Scientists have predicted an increase in the number of cases of cervical cancer by 2050

Despite the development of prevention methods and a decrease in standardized incidence rates, the absolute number of cases of cervical cancer in the world may continue to increase. According to the researchers' forecasts, by 2050 the number of new diagnoses will grow by 20.2%, and deaths — by 39.3% compared to 2024. At the same time, the most difficult situation will remain in low-income countries. About why the global burden of the disease continues to grow and what factors are associated with it, see the Izvestia article.

The number of cases will continue to grow

In 2023, about 887,000 new cases of cervical cancer and 369,000 deaths from this disease were registered worldwide. Such estimates were received by participants of the Global Burden of Disease international project, who analyzed data from 204 countries and territories for the period from 1990 to 2023. The results of the study are published in the journal Nature Medicine.

Scientists have also calculated the possible dynamics of the disease until 2050. According to the forecast, the absolute number of new cases may increase by 20.2% and deaths by 39.3% compared to 2024. At the same time, the standardized morbidity rate may decrease by 12.5%, and mortality by 9%.

These estimates do not mean that the risk of disease for every woman will necessarily change in this way: standardized indicators take into account the age structure of the population, and the absolute values reflect the total number of cases and deaths.

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The gap between countries

The researchers found significant differences in the prevalence of the disease depending on the level of government income. In low-income countries, the standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer was more than four times higher than in high-income countries. The difference in mortality rates exceeded sevenfold.

Thus, global statistics conceal significant inequalities between regions. Even if the overall rates are gradually changing, women in low-income countries continue to face a much higher burden of the disease. In forecasts up to 2050, this group of States also maintains the highest standardized morbidity and mortality rates.

The main factor is the human papillomavirus

According to the authors, all the lost years of a healthy life due to cervical cancer were associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. This indicator takes into account both premature mortality and time spent with disabilities. Tobacco use was another risk factor: researchers attributed 5.9% of the global disease burden to it in terms of years of healthy life.

The authors considered not only the number of new diagnoses and deaths, but also the cumulative damage to public health. This approach allows us to assess how much the disease affects the duration and quality of life. In the case of cervical cancer, HPV infection was of key importance in the calculations obtained.

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Why the forecast remains alarming

At first glance, the forecast may seem contradictory: standardized morbidity and mortality rates may decrease by 2050, but the total number of cases and deaths will increase. However, these values reflect different processes. Standardized indicators make it possible to compare risks based on the age structure of the population, while absolute values show how many people will actually experience the disease.

In addition, the projected decrease in standardized indicators is not guaranteed: the ranges of uncertainty in the authors' calculations also allow for no changes. The researchers estimate that the highest rates will remain in low-income countries.

Therefore, the authors emphasize the need to step up measures to combat the disease and accelerate progress in its prevention. Without this, even a possible improvement in relative indicators will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the total number of cases and deaths.