Appetite in times of trouble: catering has overdue every eighth ruble borrowed
The overdue debt of catering enterprises reached a record 24.3 billion rubles by September, which is 27% more than a year earlier, according to data from the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. Problem debts already account for more than 13% of the industry's loan portfolio — in fact, one in eight rubles is not repaid on time. At the same time, Russians are saving on visiting restaurants and cafes, and establishments are increasingly shutting down their operations. High loan rates, rent, and salaries leave owners with fewer funds to repay loans. How great is the threat of new closures is in the Izvestia article.
Why have restaurants become more likely to default on loans
By September 1, 2026, the total loan portfolio of cafes and restaurants amounted to 184 billion rubles, and overdue debt amounted to 24.3 billion, according to information from the Central Bank, studied by Izvestia. This is the maximum for the entire observation period since February 2018. Over the year, the figure increased by 27%, and in August alone — by 1.25 billion rubles.
As a result, the share of unpaid debts exceeded 13%, meaning payments are not received on time for almost one in eight rubles owed by catering companies to banks. The Central Bank's statistics cover not only restaurants and cafes, but also canteens, bars, fast food, takeaway food outlets and catering — all types of activities under the OKVED 56.
For financial institutions, overdue debt at the level of 13% is a serious signal about the state of the entire industry, said Konstantin Borodulin, Managing Director of the NRA ratings of financial institutions. Lenders take such risks into account when issuing new loans. Therefore, the deterioration of the situation of some institutions may lead to more stringent financing conditions, even for those who are still paying their debts regularly.
The hospitality industry is entering a protracted crisis, says Sergey Malikov, a business consultant and expert at the Moscow branch of Opora Russia. According to him, the net profitability of restaurants rarely exceeds 10-12%, so the share of problem debts of 13% is a critical level for the industry. It is especially difficult for those who previously took out long-term loans with floating rates: due to the high interest rate, monthly payments have increased sharply and the money needed for the current operation of institutions is being withdrawn.
It is almost impossible to re-credit on more favorable terms now, the expert added. And with rates above 20% per annum, it is difficult for an ordinary restaurant to remain profitable.
Moreover, new loans are now more often issued not for development, but to repay previous debts, Konstantin Borodulin noted. Such refinancing does not create additional revenue from which to pay interest.
Why are more and more establishments closing?
The deterioration of the industry is also noticeable in the number of closed enterprises. In 2025, 35.4 thousand people stopped their activities. Sole proprietors and catering companies, follows from the data "Contour.Focus." In January – September 2026, 28 thousand were already closed - 15% more than in the same period a year earlier.
The decline is also noticeable in large cities. According to CMWP estimates, 381 establishments in Moscow stopped working for the whole of 2025, compared to 312 a year earlier. In St. Petersburg, according to 2GIS, the number of restaurants by August decreased by 3.1% over the year, to 1.7 thousand, and cafes — by 4%, to 2.5 thousand.
Catering is simultaneously being pressured by rising food prices, increasing logistics complexity and staff shortages, explained Sergey Malikov. In order to retain cooks and other staff, salaries have to be raised, and this reduces the already small profit. Restaurants cannot shift all expenses to guests: visitors have begun to save money, less often they order expensive dishes, alcohol and desserts. As a result, expenses are growing faster than the establishments are able to increase revenue.
Taxes are becoming an additional burden, Konstantin Borodulin drew attention. Starting in 2026, the maximum threshold of annual income for businesses that do not pay VAT has been lowered to 20 million rubles under the simplified system. Initially, it was planned to reduce it to 15 million in 2027, but then this step was postponed until 2030.
For catering, there is a separate exemption from value added tax. In order for restaurants and cafes not to pay it, at least 70% of their revenue should be for catering services, and the average salary of employees should not be lower than the industry average in the region. In 2026, for some establishments that were faced with the need to pay VAT for the first time, the second requirement was temporarily abolished. But starting in 2027, it will become mandatory again. Therefore, restaurants where employees receive less than the established level will either have to raise their salaries or start paying VAT.
Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Global, believes that independent cafes and restaurants in the middle price segment with high rents and heavy debts are the most vulnerable. Such establishments have fewer reserves of their own and fewer opportunities to seek discounts from suppliers. They may also lose out to competition from cheap cafes and ready-to-eat food delivery services from large retail chains.
Small single cafes and coffee shops often close within a few months after the start of work, said Sergey Malikov. Large chains and fast food companies feel more stable — they are helped by scale, automation and cost control. In addition, they are the ones who attract some of the customers who leave small restaurants in order to save money.
What will happen to restaurants and prices for visitors
In 2027, the risk of a new wave of closures remains high, business consultant Sergey Malikov warned. According to him, in 2026, many institutions continued to operate at the expense of previously accumulated reserves, but with a long period of expensive loans, funds are gradually running out.
It is not yet possible to count on a rapid reduction in the cost of loans. In October, the Bank of Russia raised its forecast for the average key rate for 2027 from 10.5–12.5% to 12.5–13.5%, and for 2028 from 8-9% to 9-10%. This means that double-digit rates will persist for most of next year.
The main danger is triggering a chain reaction, Sergei Malikov believes. If businesses start delaying settlements with suppliers of products and equipment, they may require other customers to pay in full. Then even sustainable establishments will have to pay more money in advance for purchases, and there will be less money for daily expenses. The problems of some market participants may increase the crisis of others.
Prices in establishments are likely to continue to rise, but the increase will be gradual, Vladimir Chernov believes. It is difficult to fully shift costs to visitors, because they may come less often or choose cheaper dishes, and rising prices will not necessarily increase revenue. Therefore, restaurants will reduce the menu and abandon items that bring too little profit.
Some establishments are already looking for less visible ways to reduce costs, said Sergey Malikov. They reduce portions, replace expensive imported products with local analogues, trying to preserve the quality of familiar dishes. At the same time, it is dangerous to drastically reduce the number of employees or salaries due to a shortage of personnel. Therefore, catering companies are saving on advertising or starting to assign more and more tasks to employees.
Reducing the key interest rate will help ease the situation of the industry, Sergei Malikov believes. In his opinion, a temporary ban on blocking operating accounts for small tax debts would also help a lot, so that institutions would not run out of money for daily work.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
