A major financial plan: how the deputies proposed to finalize the budget for 2027-2029

Two indexations of insurance pensions in 2027 and 10 trillion rubles to support families with children for three years are provided for in the draft budget, which the State Duma approved in the first reading. By the second review, scheduled for November 19, the deputies proposed to strengthen patient support: in particular, to allocate additional funds to help cancer patients and solve the problem of queues for high-tech treatment. Possible sources of additional budget revenues were also discussed, from a tax on excess profits of banks to an increase in insurance premiums from high salaries. What proposals were made at the plenary session and why some of them were not supported by the Ministry of Finance can be found in the Izvestia article.

What are the priorities of the new budget

The State Duma approved in the first reading the draft federal budget for the next three years. 372 deputies voted in support of the document, 51 more abstained. There were no votes against it. The second reading is scheduled for November 19th. At the plenary session, the deputies also considered amendments to the Budget and Tax Codes, draft financial plans of the Social Fund of Russia and the Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund.

According to the draft federal budget, in 2027 revenues will amount to 43.3 trillion rubles, expenditures — 48.7 trillion, deficit — 5.4 trillion. In 2028, revenue will grow to 45.8 trillion, spending to 51 trillion, and in 2029 to 48.6 trillion and 53.9 trillion, respectively.

—The key tasks that the budget solves are: fully meeting the needs of defense and security, including social protection for military personnel, participants, veterans of special operations, and their family members, unconditional fulfillment of all social obligations of the state to citizens, sustainable development of the country's economy, and above all, achieving technological sovereignty," Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin said at a plenary session.

For pensioners, this means two indexations in 2027, said Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. In February, insurance pensions will be increased by the inflation rate for 2026 - by a preliminary 6.8%, in April — by an additional 3.3%, taking into account the projected salary growth. The average old-age insurance pension will reach almost 30 thousand rubles by the end of the year.

According to him, the living wage will increase by 6.8%, to 20.2 thousand rubles, and the minimum wage will be about 29 thousand.

10 trillion rubles are provided for the support of families with children over three years, the Finance Minister added. In addition to payments, the money will be directed to schools, kindergartens and clinics. The Social Fund's budget also includes funds for maternity capital for almost 2 million families, said Andrei Makarov, head of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.

To support the economy, almost 2 trillion rubles will be allocated to national technological leadership projects, said Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy. In particular, financing of machine tool construction and unmanned systems will increase. Such investments will help enterprises upgrade equipment and expand production in Russia, he believes. The development of roads and public transport will improve life and reduce business transportation costs, the expert added.

However, the obligations will have to be fulfilled in tougher financial conditions, said Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. Compared to the budget for 2026, the focus is shifting from new initiatives to the implementation of already made decisions and the efficiency of spending, he explained. At the same time, the share of public debt servicing costs will grow from 9.4% in 2027 to 10.5% in 2029.

Inflation is also increasing the burden on the treasury, Anton Siluanov noted.

"One percentage point of inflation, taking into account the indexation of all payments provided for by our legislation across the entire budget system, is about 400 billion rubles of additional expenditure obligations," the minister said.

Another 300-350 billion rubles of interest expense is added by one point of the key rate, he said.

The budget is also sensitive to oil prices, Chairman of the Accounting Chamber Boris Kovalchuk warned. According to him, the projected oil price is close to the base level that the budget is targeting, which increases the treasury's dependence on external conditions. Among the risks, he also called a reduction in demand for Russian exports, changes in prices for them and the persistence of tight monetary conditions, including high interest rates, for longer than the Central Bank expects.

What proposals were made at the first reading of the budget

During the plenary session, the deputies asked the Finance Minister a number of questions. So, Andrey Makarov from the State Duma Budget Committee drew attention to the queues for high-tech medical care. According to him, the annual quotas may end prematurely due to emergency patients, and the waiting period is not regulated. Each clinic has its own queue, and not everyone can get treatment or referral to the federal center. The MP called for the preparation of decisions for the second reading.

Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the State Duma, also proposed increasing funding for cancer patients, and Sergei Mironov, head of the Fair Russia faction, generally advocated expanding all healthcare spending by at least half to 7% of GDP. In his opinion, a 10% tax on banks' excess profits could become a source of additional funds for social needs. The deputy estimated the possible revenue to the treasury at several hundred billion rubles.

His colleague from the faction Andrey Kuznetsov proposed to replenish the budget at the expense of insurance premiums. He advocated the application of a tariff of 30% to the part of the salary exceeding the established annual marginal base. Currently, a reduced tariff of 15.1% is in effect for such payments. Anton Siluanov objected that this measure would lead to an excessive increase in the burden on enterprises.

"We do not plan to provide for an increase in taxation in this area," he said.

The question of how much a business is able to pay has also arisen during the preparation of tax amendments, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. Thus, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs insists that the tax for mining companies be calculated from a net excess profit, taking into account costs. The State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes recommended considering an initiative to take into account the profitability and financial situation of enterprises.

While additional sources are being discussed, treasury expenditures exceed revenues. Deputy Anatoly Lokot asked how to cover this difference and how to avoid debt escalation. The Finance Minister named domestic borrowings as the main source of covering the shortfall. At the same time, the deficit is planned to be reduced from about 3% of GDP this year to 2.2% next year, and then to 1.9%. According to Anton Siluanov, this should create conditions for reducing the interest rate and debt service costs.

A slowdown in inflation, which is affected by rising utility bills, would also help to contain costs, the minister noted. Vyacheslav Volodin called for understanding the reasons for the significant differences in tariff increases between regions.

— Whoever increases tariffs in the regions, raising them, must justify this decision, — said the chairman of the State Duma.

Before the second reading, it is important to check whether the provided income is enough to fulfill obligations, says Denis Astafyev from SharesPro. When reviewing expenses, he advises giving priority to completing projects that have already been started with tangible results for people.

It is the result that should determine the assessment of investments, emphasized Vladimir Eremkin from the Presidential Academy. According to him, budget investments are often assessed by the amounts spent. By the second reading, it is possible to clarify the indicators of state programs and redistribute funds within sections in order to increase the return on spending.

Thus, the first reading determined the main parameters of the budget, and work on specific expenses is ahead. Anton Siluanov confirmed the readiness of the Ministry of Finance to finalize the draft, taking into account the proposals of the deputies. At the same time, the priorities remain the fulfillment of social obligations, the security of the country and the development of the economy.