Let's go to the square: shopping malls are lowering their rates in an attempt to keep tenants

The owners of shopping malls are reviewing the lease terms for retailers against the background of changing consumer demand and optimization of retail chains. In some categories, the bids drop to zero. So, in the third quarter, renting space for children's goods stores cost 0-8 thousand rubles per square meter. m per year, household appliances and electronics — 0-12 thousand rubles, restaurants — 0-45 thousand rubles, Izvestia found out. Thus, developers are trying to maintain the occupancy rate of shopping malls and customer traffic, experts say. At the same time, a reduction in rental income may reduce the investment attractiveness of shopping centers, and the high cost of loans makes it difficult to reconstruct them and find new formats.

How rent rates change in shopping malls

In the third quarter of 2026, in large shopping malls, the lower limit of rates for a number of tenant categories turned out to be zero, according to a report by the NF Group consulting group (formerly Knight Frank). In particular, the range of base rates for home appliance and electronics stores was 0-12 thousand rubles per 1 sq.m. m per year, for children's goods stores — 0-8 thousand rubles, for restaurants — 0-45 thousand rubles per 1 sq. m. m per year.

A decrease in rental rates is indeed observed in some shopping malls, confirms Zulfiya Shilyaeva, Senior Director, Head of the CMWP Retail Real Estate department. Sometimes this is due to a drop in demand during the period under review and the desire of developers to work with "understandable" network operators on preferential terms, said Evgenia Khakberdieva, regional director of the retail real estate department at NF Group.

At the same time, the zero rate does not mean that tenants massively occupy the premises for free, according to the developer, who has a shopping center in his portfolio. According to him, these ranges may reflect different terms of contracts, including individual offers and rental holidays.

As a rule, we are talking about switching to a percentage of turnover, when the landlord actually shares commercial risks with the retailer, said the co-chairman of the Association of Commercial Real Estate and Retail Experts (ATER) Pavel Lyulin. This practice has been used for a long time, for example, in relation to large anchor tenants, but now it is becoming more widespread, as it allows to maintain the occupancy of shopping centers and customer traffic, he explained.

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How do retailers reduce costs and what impact does low demand have on the situation?

Developers are increasingly switching to flexible rental models, including those with payments linked to turnover or covering operating costs, says Irada Aliyeva, commercial director of Union Group Retail, which manages the Aquarelle shopping center.

For example, in the Botany shopping center, the segment of children's goods receives support at the request of retailers, while cafes and restaurants operate on normal commercial terms, said Alyona Umbetkhalieva, head of the retail real estate rental department at Pioneer, which manages the shopping center. According to her, the shopping center provides discounts to brands with a pronounced seasonality of assortment and sales.

New players who go offline without sufficient experience and financial resources also need support, Irada Aliyeva added. It may include rental holidays, preparation of technical documentation, interior decoration and promotion.

However, not all developers are ready to make concessions. The Meeting Place Management Company did not change the terms of contracts with existing tenants in 2026, said Evgenia Kuzminykh, Director of Tenant Relations Management at the company. According to her, operators whose indicators do not reach the target values are replaced as part of the planned rotation by those who are able to provide higher operating profit.

AFI Development and A101 declined to comment. Izvestia also sent inquiries to representatives of Kievskaya Square, Crocus Group, Tashir Group and Fort Group.

Why do some shopping malls make concessions to tenants

The main reason for the reduction in rates is the deterioration of the retail economy, Pavel Lyulin believes. According to him, the decline in sales in some categories amid rising personnel, logistics and store maintenance costs has forced many chains to reduce the number of outlets.

According to NF Group, in July–September, 60 retailers started optimizing their store portfolio (48% of them are reducing the number of outlets, and 35% announced their complete liquidation). In particular, the Stockmann chain announced the closure of some stores in the next 12 months, and Lime has frozen plans for openings until 2027. Over the past year, Detsky Mir has begun to request more frequent renegotiation of lease agreements, and the discount rate for each specific store was 10-50%, sources told Izvestia. Decisions to review the rates were made taking into account the traffic and transport accessibility of the shopping center, market rates and other "efficiency factors," a representative of Detsky Mir noted at the time. In such conditions, landlords are forced to seek a compromise on commercial terms, as it is difficult to find a replacement for the departed tenants, Zulfiya Shilyaeva noted.

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Lowering rates reduces the profitability of shopping malls, Evgenia Khakberdieva pointed out. If payments are reduced and operating costs increase, the owner receives less income, Pavel Lyulin explained. In such conditions, the investment value of the facility is reduced, and the possibilities for its reconstruction are limited due to expensive loans, Zulfiya Shilyaeva said. According to CMWP, in January–September, the volume of construction of new shopping centers amounted to 193.5 thousand square meters, which is 45% less than in the same period of 2025.

In conditions of declining profits, the investor will rely on a lower purchase price to maintain an acceptable return, Pavel Lyulin said. As a result, the market may face a revaluation of individual facilities, the expert noted. However, temporary concessions to tenants do not mean direct losses for the owner, Alena Umbetkhalieva believes. According to her, any such support measures provide a protective mechanism to return the invested funds.

By the end of 2026, the vacancy rate of retail space may grow to 8%, predicts Evgeniya Khakberdieva. According to her, in 2027, the situation will depend on the general economic situation, consumer demand, the volume of new facilities and the willingness of owners to invest in reconstruction. At the same time, the downward trend in rental rates will continue, Pavel Lyulin warns. It will be most pronounced in the segments of clothing, footwear, electronics and household goods.

In high-quality shopping malls with steady traffic, there are fewer prerequisites for lower rates. In projects with an outdated concept or an unsuccessful location, the adaptation of rental conditions may continue, Evgeniya Hakberdieva clarified. In fact, the market is increasingly divided into facilities that can dictate conditions, and those that have to adapt to the economic opportunities of retailers, Pavel Lyulin concluded.