The economist assessed the prospects of the Moscow Exchange index after rising above 2,500 points

The Moscow Exchange index has risen above 2,500 points for the first time since June, but it is too early to talk about the formation of a stable upward trend. The current growth is primarily due to investors' review of geopolitical risks and export revenue prospects. Denis Astafyev, an economist, entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia on October 27.

According to him, expectations of a softening of the external background have become one of the main growth factors. Investors drew attention to statements about Russia's readiness to resume trilateral negotiations after November 4, as well as comments by US President Donald Trump about the possibility of oil and gas cooperation with Russia regardless of the dynamics of the Ukrainian settlement. The market puts into quotes the probability of an improvement in conditions for exports, settlements and corporate income. At the same time, there are no specific agreements yet.

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What supports the stock market

The high key rate, which is 14%, still limits the growth potential of the Russian stock market. Deposits and bonds remain an alternative to riskier investments. High oil prices provide additional support to the market. However, expensive energy resources alone do not guarantee an increase in profits for Russian exporters. The financial results are also affected by the discount on Russian oil, logistics, the tax burden and the ruble exchange rate.

How can the index change?

The sustainability of the current growth will depend on how investors' expectations regarding the negotiations are fulfilled. To continue the rise, according to Astafyev, meaningful progress and specific agreements, not just statements, will be required.

If expectations are not realized, and tight monetary policy persists longer than market forecasts, the index may fall back to the range of 2300-2450 points. A correction is also possible without new external shocks — after profit-taking by investors who bought securities against the background of preliminary expectations.

Repeated unsuccessful attempts to gain a foothold above 2,500 points, a reduction in the number of growing stocks and increased sales after negative news may be signals of a worsening situation.

In the baseline scenario, Astafyev assumes that by the end of 2026, the Moscow Exchange index may be in the range of 2500-2800 points, and by the end of the first quarter of 2027 — at the level of 2600-3000 points. Such a scenario is possible in the absence of a new escalation, the preservation of corporate income and a gradual increase in expectations of a future reduction in the key rate.