Unit growth: Russians began to buy more, but cheaper
Russians began to buy cheaper consumer goods, but in larger volumes than before, Izvestia found out. In January—August 2026, sales of such products increased by 10.6% in monetary terms, but at the same time, it was not the price increase that gave a significant share of the increase, namely, an increase in the number of purchases in units, Nielsen calculated. This is happening against the background of a slowdown in food inflation: in August it amounted to 4.6% in annual terms against 9.4% a year earlier. At the same time, an increase in consumption may hinder the easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy, experts say. On October 23, the regulator kept the rate at 14%, explaining the decision, in particular, by high inflation expectations of the population.
How sales of daily demand goods have changed
According to the results of January—August 2026, sales of consumer goods (FMCG) in monetary terms increased by 10.6% compared to the same period in 2025, with the bulk of the increase provided by an increase in physical purchases. This follows from the data of the Nielsen analytical company. A year earlier, the market grew mainly due to higher prices. The number of FMCG packages sold increased by 6.5% in eight months, the company estimates. The absolute figures were not disclosed there.
According to analysts, of the total sales growth of 10.6% in January—August of this year, 6.1 percentage points accounted for an increase in natural turnover, and 4.5 percentage points accounted for a change in prices. In the same period of 2025, sales in monetary terms increased by 15.7%, but then the contribution of natural demand was only 2.5 percentage points, while the price factor was 13.2. Nielsen calculated the figures based on changes in the cost of one package, and natural demand based on the dynamics of the number of packages sold.
The growth of natural sales is confirmed by a representative of Lenta. According to him, the increase in the company's revenue was influenced by the growth of customer traffic and prices. In the first half of the year, the network's revenue increased year-on-year by 26.2%, to 648.5 billion rubles. Comparable sales increased by 6.7%, the average receipt increased by 5%, and traffic increased by 1.5%, according to the company's IFRS statements. The company has not yet disclosed data for nine months.
X5 (which manages the Pyaterochka, Perekrestok and Chizhik networks), in the third quarter of 2026, revenue increased by 13% to 1.31 trillion rubles, and comparable sales increased by 7.4%. At the same time, traffic increased by 2.3%, and the average receipt increased by 4.9%, according to the company's operating results published on October 16.
According to the results of the first half of the year, Magnit's revenue under IFRS increased by 12.8% year-on-year, to 1.89 trillion rubles, and comparable sales increased by 6.4%. At the same time, comparable traffic remained at the level of last year, and the entire increase in sales was provided by an increase in the average receipt by 6.4%.
A representative for X5 declined to comment. Magnit, METRO, Auchan and Verny did not respond to inquiries.
Why are sales growing
A slowdown in food inflation could support demand for food, said Vyacheslav Berdnikov, head of Sovcombank's public equity analysis department. According to Rosstat, deflation was 0.08% in August. In particular, prices for many seasonal products, such as cabbage, potatoes, carrots, beets, apples, and grapes, continued to decline. Annual food inflation has also decreased: by the end of this August, it amounted to 4.6% against 9.4% a year earlier, according to the department.
An additional factor could be a decrease in the attractiveness of savings against the background of changes in deposit rates, Berdnikov believes.
Changes in consumer behavior can also contribute to an increase in in-kind sales, according to the Chairman of the Association of Omnichannel Retail Companies (ACORT) Stanislav Bogdanov. According to him, Russians stock up less often and purchase products more often based on current needs, preferring portion packages designed for one meal. Thus, in the cereal category, the demand for packaged buckwheat, rice and millet is growing, and among dairy products, buyers are more likely to choose small packages and ready-made cuts, he clarifies.
At the same time, it is necessary to evaluate the growth of natural sales only by the number of packages with caution, warns the top manager of a large retail chain. In his opinion, inflation may be hiding behind such dynamics.
The indicators could also be affected by shrinkflation, Vyacheslav Berdnikov clarifies. If the manufacturer reduces the package weight, for example from 900 to 800 g, the number of packs sold may increase without a comparable increase in the physical volume of goods sold. Denis Astafyev, the founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, also pointed out that it is necessary to distinguish between the number of purchases and the volume of consumption.
At the same time, customers began to choose cheaper products and products under their own brands (STM) of retail chains more often, he notes. As a result, the average cost of purchases is growing more slowly, although prices for individual goods may continue to rise, he explains.
In 2027, the contribution of in-kind sales to the growth of the consumer goods market will slow down to 2-4 percentage points, while the role of the price factor will remain approximately at the current level, Berdnikov predicts. According to his estimates, physical volumes of purchases will continue to increase until the end of 2026, including due to the effect of a low base in the second half of 2025.
At the same time, the recovery in consumption may complicate further monetary policy easing, the analyst notes. According to him, steady growth in demand increases inflationary pressure, especially if supply does not keep up with it.
In September, the Bank of Russia indicated a significant increase in price pressure and kept the key rate at 14% per annum. On October 23, the regulator left the rate unchanged again, explaining the decision by "increased price pressure" and high inflation expectations of the population. The price increase is not slowing down and in annual terms is 5-6%, the Central Bank said in a statement following a meeting of the board of directors.
Against this background, the acceleration of in-kind sales may become one of the factors limiting further reduction in the cost of loans and restraining consumption in 2027, suggests Vyacheslav Berdnikov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
