Energy breakthrough: Russia has started supplying diesel to the USA
Diesel supplies to the United States will bring additional revenues to the Russian budget, and in the future our country may regain a 10% share of the global market for this fuel, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. As part of the implementation of the diesel deal between the Russian Federation and the United States, the first tanker with Russian fuel set sail on October 23 and will arrive in New York on November 7. The implementation of the energy agreements began against the background of the preparation of a new round of negotiations in the format of the Russian Federation – USA – Ukraine. It is planned that it will be held in November, the Kremlin said. Humanitarian contacts are continuing, but difficult political issues need to be resolved in order to move towards a settlement. Europe is afraid of being left out of the negotiation process, which has returned to choosing a special envoy.
Russian fuel supplies to the USA
The diesel deal between Moscow and Washington is beginning to be implemented in practice. The first tanker with Russian fuel left the port of Primorsk in the Leningrad Region and will arrive in New York on November 7. According to Reuters, there are about 40 thousand tons of diesel on board.
New shipments will follow — Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with the special envoy of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff, explained that the Russian Federation has several tankers under loading at once. According to him, Moscow is ready to supply about 300,000 tons of diesel to the American and global markets in October, and 500,000 more in November. By the end of the year, Russia is ready to increase this figure to 3-3.5 million tons per month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier.
Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg. October 21, 2026
On October 9, American leader Donald Trump announced an agreement with the Russian president on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to world markets. After that, the US Treasury removed it from sanctions until April 2027, and the Russian government partially lifted the export ban.
The United States consumes about 3.9 million barrels of diesel fuel per day, or about 118 million barrels per month, said Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company. At the same time, the United States exports more than it imports, so there is no shortage in their domestic market. It is likely that the main purpose of supplies is the global market, and not directly the American one, the expert believes.
The shortage in the global diesel fuel market has been formed due to a combination of several factors. Large-scale supply disruptions from the Middle East, insufficient logistics, sanctions restrictions against Russia, unscheduled repairs at refineries, a ban on the export of Russian fuel and, in general, seasonality of consumption were affected, Dmitry Scriabin explained. Due to the combination of a large number of factors, the export volumes announced under the diesel deal are not enough to significantly affect prices, the expert noted.
For Russia, the expansion of exports beyond the sanctions limits provides some support to vertically integrated oil companies, which have the opportunity to sell their already accumulated diesel fuel reserves, Scriabin stressed. Also, in his opinion, the resumption of exports may allow refineries to increase production. Deliveries of 3.5 million tons of diesel declared by the end of the year are an additional sales channel for companies and tax revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation.
American consumers have also benefited from the deal, who are seeing some, albeit slight, decrease in diesel fuel prices, Egor Toropov, an American analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. After the conversation between Putin and Trump, diesel prices on the stock exchange decreased by 5%. However, the deal will not significantly affect the results of the midterm congressional elections on November 3. According to the expert, the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives, but with a fragile majority they will be able to hold the Senate. The ability of the Trump administration to implement its policy course will largely depend on the balance of power in Congress.
Currently, the volume of Russian fuel is small, but Russia can increase exports fivefold and return to the level of 10% presence on the global diesel market, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Foundation and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. According to him, this will be influenced by the speed of recovery of Russian refineries and the ability of the United States to influence Ukraine. Donald Trump has repeatedly called on Kiev to stop attacks against energy facilities. According to The Economist, Elon Musk ordered to limit the operation of the Starshield satellite system in response to the attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Negotiations on Ukraine
Kiev's actions will also affect the prospects for the planned trilateral meeting in the format of the Russian Federation – the United States – Ukraine, which was previously agreed upon during Steve Witkoff's diplomatic tour. Vladimir Putin said on October 22 that Russia would monitor the situation in the coming days. Earlier, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted that Kiev disrupted the resumption of negotiations in September due to attempts to interfere with the elections to the State Duma.
A new round of dialogue on Ukraine is scheduled in Abu Dhabi for the first half of November, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on October 23. Vladimir Putin stressed that the purpose of these talks would be "to discuss the issue of ensuring the security of Ukraine and Russia after reaching peace agreements, and in their final version, and not as a result of the suspension of hostilities for a short period of time."
The Head of State noted that Russia is ready to negotiate and seek solutions to the situation, but in any case, it will solve its tasks, and all the goals of the special military operation will be achieved. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing big problems: the number of deserters amounted to half a million, if not more, and the West is well aware of this, the president stressed. Putin noted that Kiev sends forcibly mobilized people to the front line, while motivated nationalist formations "do not always fight there."
At the same time, Russia and Ukraine maintain a dialogue on humanitarian issues. For example, on October 23, the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, Yana Lantratova, met with the Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Russia has returned 270 soldiers from Ukrainian captivity, and 270 prisoners of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been transferred in return, the Defense Ministry said.
However, a settlement is impossible without resolving political issues, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia. The discussion of the security of Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi may bring the conflict to an end, the expert believes.
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to look for new aid packages for Ukraine. On October 22, he visited Finland, where he signed several agreements worth €300 million. In particular, Ukraine should receive locomotives, energy equipment and means to protect energy facilities. However, there has been no unity in Europe for a long time: at the recent EU summit on October 15-16, it was not possible to approve a new loan of €70 billion to Ukraine. Many European countries simply have nothing to supply to Kiev, while political forces advocating for ending support, for example, the AFD in Germany, are strengthening.
The visit to Finland is also notable for the fact that the president of this country, Alexander Stubb, is being considered as a candidate for the role of EU negotiator. According to The Telegraph newspaper, in addition to Stubb, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, Czech President Peter Pavel, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gare Stere may represent Europe. However, there has been talk about this since the beginning of the year and no final decision has been made.
It is impossible to determine the architecture of European security without other participants, but the upcoming meeting will be held in the Russia–USA–Ukraine trilateral format, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Nevertheless, Moscow has previously stressed that they are ready for contacts with the Europeans, and Russia has no plans to attack Europe. The question now is whether the European capitals agree to return to constructive dialogue.
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