Triple game: will China strengthen its role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis
China is preparing to support the efforts of the Russian Federation and the United States in resolving the crisis in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November. If this happens, the leaders will discuss major global conflicts, including Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Beijing continues to insist on its peace initiatives, which are actively supported in Moscow. At the same time, relations between the Russian Federation and the United States may noticeably warm up by the time of the meeting. What to expect from the trilateral meeting and how the US congressional elections will affect the negotiations is in the Izvestia article.
China's role in resolving the crisis
One of the most discussed news in world politics remains the possible meeting of Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19. First, The Wall Street Journal wrote that it was the Russian leader who proposed holding trilateral talks on Ukraine together with the leaders of the United States and China. Then the Kremlin said that such a meeting was possible, but there were no agreements yet. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also confirmed that the White House is discussing the possibility of a meeting. And on the evening of October 19, Donald Trump announced his readiness to take part in it during a conversation with journalists.
If the leaders of the three powers do get together, they will send important signals to the world on the Ukrainian settlement, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia.
"We hope that in any case, if this takes place at the highest level, then there will probably be some kind of outward signals to the world community regarding the position of the three countries on various conflicts," the diplomat said.
The United States remains the main mediator in the Ukrainian crisis, but since Trump's arrival in the White House, he has failed to reconcile the two sides. The question arises: will it be possible to make more progress if China joins the peace process? Beijing made its first request for mediation back in February 2023, when it presented its "12-point plan." In it, Chinese diplomats called for forgetting about the logic of the Cold War and lifting unilateral sanctions. In May 2024, Beijing, together with Brazil, finalized the idea and released a fresh six-point consensus. The main conditions were the cessation of escalation at the front and the convening of a full-fledged international conference, the format of which would be approved by both Russia and Ukraine.
To promote these ideas, in September 2024, China created the Friends of the World diplomatic group at the UN, bringing together the states of the Global South. Despite Beijing's activity, its initiatives face harsh criticism: Kiev is unhappy with the proposal to freeze the conflict along the front line, and Washington has previously stated that the Chinese plan actually plays into the hands of the Kremlin. In turn, Vladimir Putin noted that many of Beijing's provisions are consonant with Russian approaches and can be used as a basis for a future peace agreement.
— As I understand it, China has always been interested and is now confirming its interest in resolving the conflict. He has his own suggestions that he has previously voiced. I think he will continue to insist on them," Andrei Rudenko said.
The main strategic interest of China is to preserve "room for maneuver" in the form of creating the greatest number of opportunities with the least number of commitments, Nikolai Marchenko, Sinologist and director of the Autonomous Non—Governmental Organization Eurasian Youth Projects, explained to Izvestia. According to him, China's direct participation in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis will definitely strengthen its position on the world stage in front of the collective West. At the same time, Beijing will not seize the initiative from Washington, which remains the main mediator, the expert concludes.
The rapprochement between Russia and the United States
Recently, Moscow and Washington have begun to pragmatically build bridges, moving from statements to real steps forward. After the conversation between Putin and Trump on October 9, the countries concluded a diesel deal: Russia resumed fuel supplies to the United States, and the US Treasury promptly removed its imports from restrictions until April 2027. Moreover, the White House postponed the introduction of "hellish sanctions" against Russia in order to give negotiations on Ukraine a chance. Moscow reacted positively to Washington's actions.
— Now we are focused on expanding this channel of interaction [between Russia and the United States]. This will give not just an exclusively political effect in the form of comments, but a practical result that will affect the economic interaction between the two major geopolitical players and create a general positive background pushing for an early settlement of the conflict on the territory of Ukraine," Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-large to the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
Earlier, Donald Trump stressed that he did not intend to take steps that could alienate Moscow from the negotiation process. According to press reports, economic contacts between Russia and the United States may significantly intensify in the near future. According to Reuters, the White House is exploring the possibility of easing restrictions against tankers that previously transported oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. At the same time, according to Kirill Dmitriev, special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the parties have formed a clear list of joint projects in the field of data centers that are planned to provide energy to Russian nuclear power plants.
At the same time, as reported in the media, Washington threatened Kiev to stop transmitting intelligence to the Ukrainian Armed Forces if Ukraine did not stop strikes against Russian refineries. At the same time, Kiev began to sound the alarm that SpaceX's restrictions on the operation of Starlink terminals led to the blocking of operations with drones. Zelensky expressed the hope that after the November 3 congressional elections, Washington would restore Kiev's full support.
It is possible that Moscow and Washington will approach the APEC summit in China as parties ready to compromise. However, the results of the US congressional elections may become a serious obstacle. As the American scholar Malek Dudakov emphasizes, the Republicans risk losing their majority in both houses of parliament. This will significantly limit Donald Trump's opportunities in the international arena due to the threat of investigations and the possible launch of impeachment proceedings by the Democrats.
In such circumstances, the White House will not abandon the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, but Trump will have significantly fewer political resources for full-fledged negotiations. The lame duck status will dramatically complicate the president's position within the country, which will inevitably distract his attention from international diplomacy.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
