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- Railway logistics: Russia and Iran have made progress in the implementation of the North–South project
Railway logistics: Russia and Iran have made progress in the implementation of the North–South project
The implementation of the North–South transport corridor project was at the center of the Russian-Iranian talks that took place on October 19 in Dushanbe. The Russian side is waiting for Tehran to document the purchase of land for the construction of the Rasht–Astara railway section. At the same time, in the open part of the negotiations, the parties did not ignore the conflict between Tehran and Washington, which could turn into a war again at any moment. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who arrived in Tajikistan to participate in SCO events, recalled that Moscow immediately condemned the actions of the United States and provided humanitarian support to the Islamic Republic.
How did the negotiations between Russia and Iran go?
Mikhail Mishustin is in Dushanbe to attend a meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the SCO member states scheduled for October 20. The day before, immediately after landing at the international airport of the capital of Tajikistan, Mishustin went to bilateral talks with Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrives at Dushanbe International Airport
The meeting took place in one of the cottages of the hotel complex owned by the executive office of the President of Tajikistan. This is a closed area, where high-ranking delegations arriving in Dushanbe often live. The atmosphere is impressive: the buildings have parquet floors with intricate patterns, coffered ceilings, and fountains and perfect cleanliness greet guests on the street. Right before the start of the events, local staff actively cleaned the red carpet.
The only thing missing here were peacocks. At least, it was them, and not the members of the delegations, that the journalists were looking for at first. The organizers promised that exotic birds will definitely be available tomorrow, during the main events of the SCO summit.
The fact that the agenda of the negotiations covers a wide variety of areas, from diplomacy to trade, was also indicated by the composition of the participants. The Russian delegation included representatives of several departments at once: Maxim Reshetnikov, Head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Andrey Rudenko, Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, as well as deputy ministers of Industry, Agriculture and Energy. The Iranian delegation was also representative.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref during a meeting in Dushanbe, where a meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states will be held.
The atmosphere was positive even before the start of the negotiations. Mikhail Mishustin began the conversation with a polite gesture, conveying to Aref greetings from himself and Vladimir Putin for Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian. Most recently, the leaders of the two countries met in Turkmenistan, where the CIS summit was held. Mikhail Mishustin generally noted the positive trajectory of bilateral relations: trade between the two countries is growing, including thanks to the free trade zone of Iran with the EAEU.
Meanwhile, the most difficult point was the linguistic nuances: the translation from Farsi into Russian turned out to be so specific that it was clear from the expressions on the faces of the correspondents and even some participants in the negotiations that not everything was clear. And after the end of the official part, during a conversation between the press and Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, it became clear that the Iranian translator could not accurately convey the entire content of the introductory speech.
It remains to be hoped that the translation for the Iranian side was more accurate, because really important issues were discussed — first of all, the development of the North–South corridor. According to Alexey Overchuk, Tehran has already notified Russia that the land for the construction of the Rasht–Astara railway section has been fully purchased. Moscow is now waiting for documentary confirmation of this step, the Deputy Prime Minister stressed. This is the last element of the North–South overland route, without which the corridor cannot be fully operational.
Russian Minister of Transport Vitaly Saveliev and Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash (center, from left to right) during the signing ceremony of the Russian-Iranian cooperation agreement on the creation of the Rasht-Astara railway in Iran, May 17, 2023.
According to orientalist Roland Bijamov, Russia and Iran are connected by geography, and the current situation in the international arena simply leaves them no choice but to move closer. The expert notes that negotiations are currently underway in the energy sector: Gazprom and the Iranian National Gas Company (NIGC) The route of the future pipeline for Russian gas supplies and the pricing mechanisms are being agreed upon. In addition, Russian investments in the development of Iranian oil fields are on the agenda. Another important area is the Bushehr NPP. Construction work on the site has been suspended due to the Middle East escalation, but Bijamov is confident that the project will be implemented.
The risk of a new escalation
The unresolved conflict between Iran and the United States has not been left out. Mikhail Mishustin recalled that Russia condemned the armed aggression against Iran and provided large-scale humanitarian assistance, including supplies of medicines and medical products.
At the same time, the talks in Dushanbe took place against the background of the risk of a new escalation in the Middle East. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Rezaei announced the development of a new defense plan in case of external aggression. According to him, his country's response this time will be bigger than during previous conflicts. Iran's new defense minister, Mehrdad Ehlaqi, however, believes that the United States would not dare to attack Iran, as in this case it would suffer great damage itself.
But the American media does not rule out a scenario with direct military intervention by Washington. According to CNN, the American command is exploring the possibility of using the largest non-nuclear munition in the US arsenal, and the main targets in the event of an attack could be Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure.
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to media reports, discussed possible scenarios for new attacks on Iran ahead of the parliamentary elections in Israel on October 27 and the midterm elections to the US Congress on November 3.
Although Trump has promised not to attack Iran until after the congressional elections, the history of the confrontation with Tehran proves that the rhetoric of the White House often serves only as a screen for preparing real strikes. In the past, Washington has repeatedly used diplomatic pauses to lull the enemy's vigilance.
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most pressing issues in relations between Iran and the United States. At the end of September, Tehran handed over to the United States through Qatar a seven-day plan to restore the operation of this artery. At a meeting with the Russian Prime Minister, Mohammad Reza Aref said that Iran understands the concerns of its partners regarding Hormuz. But all the consequences, according to him, arose because of the actions of the United States.
Araqchi previously clarified that the steps that Washington should take have already been fixed in the interim memorandum of understanding and cessation of hostilities. The parties signed it remotely in mid-June with the mediation of third countries. That document, in particular, obliged Iran to waive fees from merchant ships for passage in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.
Strikes before the midterm elections in the United States are unlikely, but their holding in late autumn or in the new year is quite expected, says Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Now, in his opinion, the Pentagon is developing plans for an active military campaign against Iran, working on mistakes and testing the ground — the return of American aircraft carriers to the Middle East is not just happening.
At the same time, Farhad Ibragimov drew attention to the current position of Donald Trump regarding the Russian Federation, anti-Russian sanctions and Ukraine. The statements and agreements that are causing fury in Brussels and Kiev may indicate that the White House is counting on Moscow's help in resolving the Iranian crisis. According to him, it is Russia, not China or regional players like Pakistan and Oman, that has the closest ties and coordination with Iran.
Moscow has previously stated its readiness to provide mediation services to resolve the situation between the United States and Iran. Moscow has relevant experience: during the Vienna negotiations on the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2021-2022, the Russian delegation repeatedly helped Western countries and Iran find a common language.
For Russia, normalization of the situation in the Middle East is important for several reasons. Moscow is actively cooperating not only with Iran, but also with other Middle Eastern monarchies, which, in the event of an escalation, will inevitably be drawn into the conflict. First of all, we are talking about the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose partnership determines the stability of the entire global energy market. In addition, any large-scale logistical disruption due to the escalation around Iran could paralyze the operation of the Caspian route and block access to the Persian Gulf.
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