Loan days: delinquency of real estate market players on loans increased 1.5 times
The overdue debt of companies operating in the real estate and construction markets has increased by 43% since the beginning of 2026 and approached 600 billion rubles, according to data from the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. These industries accounted for almost half of the total increase in distressed corporate loans in the country. The situation has worsened especially noticeably for companies dealing specifically with real estate transactions, for example, rental and housing management agencies: their arrears have increased by more than 60%. Financial difficulties are also gradually affecting developers. Why it is becoming more difficult for market participants to service loans and whether this threatens to delay the delivery of housing is in the Izvestia article.
How much have the debts of companies in the real estate market increased
Developers and companies that deal with real estate transactions are accumulating overdue debts. Since the beginning of 2026, bad loans in these industries have increased by 177 billion rubles, or 43%, and reached 592 billion by September 1, according to calculations by Izvestia based on data from the Bank of Russia. At the same time, the total volume of loans from such market participants grew significantly weaker — by only 8%, to 9.3 trillion rubles.
For comparison, for all corporate loans in Russia, delinquency has increased by 362 billion rubles (or 13%) since the beginning of the year, to 3.24 trillion. It turns out that the construction of buildings and real estate transactions accounted for almost half of the total increase in overdue business debts, although they account for only about 10% of the loan portfolio.
The situation has worsened most noticeably for companies that deal with real estate transactions, that is, they buy, sell, lease and manage real estate. Since the beginning of the year, their arrears have increased by 166 billion rubles, or 62%, to 433 billion, according to the Central Bank. The share of such debts reached 8.5% of the industry's loan portfolio.
In the construction of buildings, the figures are better: the delay increased by only 8%, to almost 160 billion rubles. It accounts for about 4% of the loan portfolio. However, the division between the two industries does not always reflect the real situation of developers.
The fact is that development groups often distribute work between several legal entities, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. Some companies directly build buildings, while others own land, attract financing, or sell ready-made facilities. Therefore, some of the debts related to housing construction can be accounted for in real estate transactions statistics, rather than building construction.
The slower increase in delinquency among developers is largely due to the project financing system. The money of apartment buyers goes to special escrow accounts and stays there until the house is delivered. The developer conducts the construction itself at the expense of a bank loan, secured by funds in these accounts. Due to this, the developer can borrow money cheaper than market conditions.
However, even this does not fully protect developers from high costs, said Sergey Klisenko, managing director of the NRA rating service. Currently, funds in escrow accounts cover less than 70% of the debt owed by developers, so they have to attract more expensive loans. In addition, companies actively offer discounts and installments to customers to support sales, which reduces their profits.
The situation is more complicated for owners of commercial real estate. Loans from owners of shopping and business centers, warehouses, and land plots are not secured by escrow accounts, so they are more dependent on the cost of conventional bank loans. When rental income is no longer enough to pay interest, companies begin to delay payments.
Why is it becoming more difficult for companies to service loans
The main reason for the increase in delinquency is high interest rates, according to Sergey Klisenko. Since June 2025, the key rate has consistently decreased from 20% to 14%, but this is too slow for the real estate market. In addition, in September, the regulator kept the rate unchanged, noting increased price pressures in the economy.
The problem is that a significant part of the companies' loans are tied to a floating rate, which changes after the key rate, so debt servicing costs have remained high for the third year in a row, the NRA explained. At the same time, revenue stopped growing at the same rate, and costs increased due to inflation. As a result, the business spends a significant portion of its income on interest payments.
An equally serious problem is the slowdown in demand for real estate, said Finam analyst Kristina Gudym. Market mortgages still cost borrowers about 18-19% per annum, so buying an apartment without government support remains too expensive. At the same time, the conditions of preferential programs are gradually being tightened, which also limits the number of potential buyers.
The terms of the family mortgage have changed since October.: The bids were tied to the number of children. For families with one child under the age of seven, they rose to 12% in the capitals and 10% in the regions. As Izvestia previously reported, the changes may affect about 6 million families. It was this category that provided a significant part of the demand for new buildings, so the new conditions may further reduce sales and incomes of developers.
Demand has decreased due to restrictions before. At the beginning of 2026, the issuance of family mortgages decreased after the introduction of the "one preferential loan in one hand" rule. In addition, the Central Bank restricts the issuance of housing loans to customers who send more than half of their income to repay debts. Such requirements reduce the risks for banks, but at the same time reduce the number of families able to get a mortgage.
Additional pressure is exerted by a decrease in the solvency of buyers against the background of high debt and inflation, said Kristina Gudym. As wage growth slows, it becomes more difficult for families to find money for large purchases.
At the same time, the problems have already gone beyond housing construction, said Kirill Agapov, CEO of Umbrella Consulting Group. The increase in delinquency by more than 60% among companies that conduct real estate transactions shows that investors in ready-made facilities, owners of offices, retail space, warehouses and apartments, as well as organizations that earn on commissions from transactions, are under pressure. This indicates a decrease not only in demand for new buildings, but also in the profitability of real estate ownership.
Moreover, developers depend on buyers, investors and companies that purchase premises for subsequent rental. When demand from their side decreases, it becomes more difficult to sell finished areas, and in order to attract buyers it is necessary to increase discounts. This increases the financial pressure on developers.
How does the increase in delinquency threaten home buyers
The new building market is steadily moving towards classic overproduction of housing, said Vasily Kutyin, Ingo Bank's Director of Analytics. According to the data bnMap.pro In 14 of Russia's 17 largest cities, unsold apartments in buildings under construction will wait an average of two to four years for their buyers if demand remains at the same level as it is now.
The scale of the problem is confirmed by the data from the Unified Housing Information System. In the winter of 2026, out of 120.8 million square meters. 81.7 million square meters of housing under construction remained unsold, or about 68%. The market is oversupplied: developers have spent their reserves on real estate, which in the end they did not buy up.
At the same time, in the first half of 2026, more than 53% of Russian developers commissioned facilities later than the deadline, Natalia Milchakova said. Delays usually ranged from three to six months, but in some cases they reached a year.
The problem already affects a significant part of the projects under construction, said Maria Ermilova, Associate Professor of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. As of June 1, 2026, out of 125 million square meters. Almost 13% of such housing was built late.
The further development of the situation will depend primarily on interest rates and the recovery in demand. If expensive loans and weak sales persist until the end of 2026, and then in 2027, the overdue debt of companies will continue to increase, Natalia Milchakova believes.
The main risks for home buyers are a delay in the delivery of new buildings or a complete shutdown of construction, for example, due to the bankruptcy of the developer, the expert emphasized. In fact, home buyers are insured against a situation where they will not receive a refund for their purchase, but nothing prevents developers from saving on building materials and skilled workers. As a result, they can rent out lower-quality housing at the same price, the expert concluded.
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