Storm Awakening: NATO's actions in the Black Sea threaten escalation with the Russian Federation

The North Atlantic Alliance is showing its readiness to further escalate tensions in the Black Sea region, Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. In particular, the risk of incidents is increasing due to NATO's actions. The diplomat also noted the growth of intelligence activity aimed at transmitting data to Kiev and the alliance's concentration on building up military infrastructure in coastal countries. Earlier, Bucharest proposed the creation of a NATO military command in the region after incidents with drones and attacks on merchant ships. Experts point out that Moscow can strengthen its own military capabilities in response.

NATO proposed to create a command in the Black Sea

The North Atlantic Alliance's interest in the Black Sea region is growing, even despite the restrictions imposed by Turkey since the beginning of its war on the passage of warships from non-regional countries into the waters. This was stated to Izvestia by Vladislav Maslennikov, Director of the Department of European Problems at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to him, instead of naval activity, NATO is focusing on building up infrastructure in the coastal member countries of the bloc.

— The intelligence activity of the allies in the North Atlantic bloc has also increased in the region. Reconnaissance aircraft based in Constanta, Romania, are constantly monitoring the waters of the Black Sea," the diplomat said. — The NATO members transfer the received data to the Kiev regime. Against this background, the risk of incidents, including unintentional ones, is really increasing. Similar incidents have already happened, for example, in March 2023 with an American UAV (according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, on March 14, 2023, the MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone fell into the Black Sea due to sudden maneuvering. — Ed.).

Photo: TASS/HIGH-G Productions/Stocktrek Ima

On October 16 of this year, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft circled the Black Sea for several hours. The next day, Romanian fighter jets shot down two unidentified UAVs.

A little earlier, Acting Romanian Defense Minister Radu Mirutse proposed the creation of a unified military command of the NATO coastal states on the Black Sea. Moreover, Bucharest is ready to lead this structure. Romania's initiative, as well as the situation in the region as a whole, will be discussed at a meeting of the organization's council scheduled for October 20, according to media reports.

— It is expected that his decisions will, among other things, relate to increasing coalition capabilities to protect air and sea space from drones and other low-flying "threats." Thus, the alliance is not going to slow down its activity in the region. By his actions, he demonstrates his readiness to further escalate tensions in the Black Sea region," Vladislav Maslennikov said.

Photo: Global Look Press/Sebastian Gollnow

Pavel Anisimov, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences at the Russian State University of Economics, noted in an interview with Izvestia that Romania's initiative involves the creation of a joint command with Bulgaria and Turkey, which have been part of the mine clearance group together with Bucharest for two years. The deployment of new NATO command structures in Romania or Bulgaria should be seen as the alliance's desire to build a single, seamless line of defense on the eastern flank, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.

Mine time: Romania sabotages the development of security measures in the Black Sea

Bulgaria, which continues to follow NATO guidelines, is also contributing to the militarization of the region.

NATO infrastructure development in the Black Sea region

The alliance's combat tactical groups have already been deployed in Bulgaria and Romania. Romania has about 5,000 foreign soldiers from France and the United States, and Bulgaria has a multinational Italian—led combat team of about 1-1.5 thousand troops.

Bucharest mobilized about 10,000 reservists for the exercises, which took place from October 5 to October 12. At the beginning of last year, the Romanian authorities announced that they planned to increase the army to 100,000 people. The increase in the number of armed forces is most likely due to preparations for a conflict with Russia. NATO countries plan to hold talks by the end of October to assess weapons needs in the event of a clash with the Russian Federation, Politico reported, citing sources.

Photo: TASS/EPA/VASILY DONEV

Romania continues the comprehensive modernization of the Mikhail Kogalniceanu airbase, which will become the alliance's largest facility in Europe. In January, an agreement was ratified to establish a base in the Kabyle region of Bulgaria. It is planned that it will be possible to quickly deploy and deploy an entire brigade or even a division of the Allied forces there. Italy assumed the main role in the creation of the base.

From November 7 to November 14, the alliance plans to hold Poseidon exercises in the Black Sea to practice joint mine action operations and destroy drifting, bottom and anchor mines.

Moscow has repeatedly stressed that there are no plans to attack European countries. According to Vladimir Putin, statements about the threat to Russia and the need to prepare for war with it are a provocation and "purposefully inflating the situation." At the same time, the Russian Federation will take additional protective measures in response to the militarization of Europe.

Photo: Global Look Press/Michal Fludra

In the Black Sea region, we can talk about adjusting the readiness and deployment of forces, strengthening surveillance, anti-aircraft and anti-drone protection from Russia, Pavel Anisimov believes. According to him, additional diplomatic efforts by Moscow are also possible, primarily in dialogue with Turkey.

Block instruction: NATO strengthens Black Sea patrols

The militarization of the region by the West increases the risk of a direct military clash

Problems of navigation in the Black Sea

The situation for merchant shipping is also getting worse. On the night of October 13, unknown naval drones attacked the cargo ship Chelsea 3 off the coast of Bulgaria. The second ship to be attacked, according to the maritime portal.bg, became HS Dignity. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev discussed the situation with Russian Ambassador to Sofia Eleonora Mitrofanova. The prime minister stressed that he "does not have definitive evidence about the origin of the drones used for the attack." This is how Rumen Radev differs from the Romanian authorities, who in May, after the incident with the drone, immediately brought charges against Moscow, ignoring its proposal for a joint investigation.

The Ukrainian leadership had previously launched a campaign to attack ships carrying peaceful goods in the Black Sea in order to harm Russian exports. Vladimir Putin, in his speech at a meeting of the Valdai Club on October 1, explained that more than 100 ships had been damaged as a result of the attacks. Foreign ships also suffer from impacts. Kiev's actions are damaging Turkish trade.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the plenary session of the XXIII annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, October 1, 2026

Photo: RIA Novosti/Kristina Solovyova

In the same month, the Russian president stressed that the Russian Armed Forces attack only those ships that delivered weapons or ammunition to Ukraine. In October, the Russian military destroyed a cargo ship with supplies for the Armed Forces of Ukraine 50 km from the port of Odessa. Moscow is ready to discuss security issues in the Black Sea with all interested states.